The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Rorschach]

On 6/5/2024 at 11:57 PM, Rorschach said:

Bad Boys: Ride or Die (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday: 111/4,375 (2.5% sold) [+46]

5 IMAX showings: 10/1,940

5 XD showings: 28/1,190

9 2D showings: 73/1,245

 

Comps:

The Fall Guy: $9.57 mil

Apes: $10.22 mil

Furiosa: $7.61 mil

Average: $9.13 mil

Bad Boys: Ride or Die (Thursday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday: 162/4,375 (3.7% sold) [+51]

5 IMAX showings: 21/1,940

5 XD showings: 44/1,190

9 2D showings: 97/1,245 

 

Comps:

The Fall Guy: $8.54 mil

Apes: $9.41 mil

Furiosa: $8.54 mil

Average: $8.83 mil

 

Still under-indexing here so I'm not gonna bother giving an OD prediction.

[Rorschach]

On 6/6/2024 at 12:01 AM, Rorschach said:

The Watchers (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday:

11 2D showings: 16/792 (2% sold) [no change]

 

Comps:

Tarot: $1.47 mil

Strangers: $1.22 mil

Average: $1.35 mil

The Watchers (Thursday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday:

11 2D showings: 32/792 (4% sold) [+16]

 

Comps:

Tarot: $2.45 mil

Strangers: $1.56 mil

Average: $2.01 mil

 

Think this will land somewhere between $2.5-3M for the full OD.

[emoviefan]

27 minutes ago, Rorschach said:

Bad Boys: Ride or Die (Thursday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday: 162/4,375 (3.7% sold) [+51]

5 IMAX showings: 21/1,940

5 XD showings: 44/1,190

9 2D showings: 97/1,245 

 

Comps:

The Fall Guy: $8.54 mil

Apes: $9.41 mil

Furiosa: $8.54 mil

Average: $8.83 mil

 

Still under-indexing here so I'm not gonna bother giving an OD prediction.

I am going to go out on a limb and say Iowa is not a big market for this franchise. Just a hunch I have.

[Rorschach]

8 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

I am going to go out on a limb and say Iowa is not a big market for this franchise. Just a hunch I have.

Iowans do not like their dogs fresh confirmed. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Bad Boys MiniTC2 

 

Thursday - 7480/50977 (181 showings) $98K

 

Normally this would be $4.75-5M but it will likely underindex here. Using the previous film ratio gives $5.35M. ~$5.75M including early shows seems good.

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, dallas said:

 

$12-17m drop from the previous films opening weekend because of The Slap? 

 

[Potiki]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

$12-17m drop from the previous films opening weekend because of The Slap? 

 

No

[Porthos]

On 6/6/2024 at 1:17 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-50 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	29110	33630	4520	13.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

35

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	21.40%		7.71m
L&T		16962	26.65%		7.73m
BP2		16800	26.90%		7.53m
AM3		10475	43.15%		7.55m
GOTG3		10750	42.05%		7.36m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       957/12927  [7.40% sold]
Matinee:    242/4470  [5.41% | 5.35% of all tickets sold]
3D:             417/6802  [6.13% | 9.23% of all tickets sold]
PLF:       2456/11538  [21.29% | 54.34% of all tickets sold]

=======

CM EQUIV        28 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    33 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-49 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	29051	33630	4579	13.62%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

59

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	21.68%		7.81m
L&T		16962	27.00%		7.83m
BP2		16800	27.26%		7.63m
AM3		10475	43.71%		7.65m
GOTG3		10750	42.60%		7.45m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      966/12927  [7.47% sold]
Matinee:    248/4470  [5.55% | 5.42% of all tickets sold]
3D:            428/6802  [6.29% | 9.35% of all tickets sold]
PLF:       2473/11538  [21.43% | 54.01% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        52 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    56 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

[Porthos]

On 6/6/2024 at 1:18 AM, Porthos said:

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	167	23974	25059	1085	4.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

142

 

T-8 Comps

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	133.13		102	815		0/92	12122/12937	6.30%		3951	27.46%		8.32m
Lightyear	189.02		179	574		0/129	15905/16479	3.48%		4091	26.52%		9.83m
Minion 2	154.56		105	702		0/168	24614/25316	2.77%		6591	16.46%		16.62m
Element	394.55		——	275		—/—	9217/9492	2.90%		1910	56.81%		9.47m
Barbie	29.63		432	3662		0/179	17666/21378	17.13%		12077	8.98%		6.70m
Wonka	244.92		30	443		0/127	20198/20641	2.15%		1975	54.94%		8.57m
GBFE	174.16		34	623		0/123	20097/20720	3.01%		2197	49.39%		8.19m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     197/10075  [1.96% sold]
Matinee:    75/2675  [2.80% | 6.91% of all tickets sold]
3D:            78/3852  [2.02% | 7.19% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         486/9779  [4.97% | 44.79% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Yep.  Acceleration underway.  See if it continues.

 

Also, as threatened, nuked a ton of comps now that I have Lightyear and Elemental (partial data) online.  Left Barbie for no real good reason except to try to perhaps counterbalance the over-indexing comps.  Will likely drop it next week once Minions 2 starts plummeting.

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	166	23464	24769	1305	5.27%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	290
Total Seats Sold Today	220

 

T-7 Comps

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	142.78		99	914		0/92	12023/12937	7.07%		3951	33.03%		8.92m
Lightyear	185.37		130	704		0/129	15775/16479	4.27%		4091	31.90%		9.64m
Minion 2	157.61		126	828		0/169	24544/25372	3.26%		6591	19.80%		16.94m
Element	426.47		31	306		—/—	9186/9492	3.22%		1910	68.32%		10.24m
Barbie	31.81		440	4102		0/180	17310/21412	19.16%		12077	10.81%		7.19m
Wonka	268.52		43	486		0/127	20155/20641	2.35%		1975	66.08%		9.40m
GBFE	190.79		61	684		0/123	20040/20724	3.30%		2197	59.40%		8.97m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     233/10075  [2.31% sold]
Matinee:    117/2675  [4.37% | 8.97% of all tickets sold]
3D:             87/3852  [2.26% | 6.67% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         587/9779  [6.00% | 44.98% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

When I said I wanted to see how IO2 would do against Lightyear and Elemental over the next couple of days/into the weekend?

 

Yeah.  Pretty much looking for signs like this.  See if the momentum continues before we get to the real test next week.

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Inside Out 2, T-8 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 80

New Sales: 12

Growth: 16%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 25

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.2

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 11/6

Early Evening: 46/10

Late Evening: 23/9

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 9/1

Dolby 3D: 30/6

IMAX: 17/6

VIP: 24/4

Regular: 0/1

Regular 3D: 0/5

4DX 3D: 0/2

 

 Comps

0.879x KFP4 for $3.3M

10.000x IF for $17.5M

80.00x Garfield for $152.0M

1.270x GB:FE for $6.0M

1.739x Wonka for $6.1M

Average: $37.0M

 

A good growth day heading into its final week.

 

Inside Out 2, T-7 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 88

New Sales: 8

Growth: 10%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 25

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.7

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 16/6

Early Evening: 48/10

Late Evening: 24/9

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 11/1

Dolby 3D: 30/6

IMAX: 20/6

VIP: 24/4

Regular: 3/1

Regular 3D: 0/5

4DX 3D: 0/2

 

 Comps

0.779x KFP4 for $3.0M

11.000x IF for $19.3M

88.00x Garfield for $167.2M

1.354x GB:FE for $6.4M

1.660x Wonka for $5.8M

Average: $40.3M

 

Again, ignore the outlier comps like Garfield. 10%. I'll take that heading into the weekend.

[vafrow]

Despicable Me 4, D1, T-27 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 7

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.2

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

I haven't had a chance to set up my full sheet yet, but wanted to at least capture first day sales (this only went up yesterday).

 

7 sold compares to 2 sold for Inside Out 2 on its first day, and 4 for Kung Fu Panda 4.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Did anyone else notice from a few pages ago that The Lion King is getting a new theatrical re-release next month as part of it’s 30th anniversary? 🦁👑

[vafrow]

Twisters, D1, T-42 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 2

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.1

Ticket premium in effect: Y

EA sales: 2

 

I just wanted to get a quick count in until I set up my sheet.

 

Not much to really interpret. It's a similar first day to Fall Guy, which had 2 tickets sold, but no EA sales.

 

It's hard to expect much this far out.

 

[Eric is Quiet]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Bad Boys MiniTC2 

 

Thursday - 7480/50977 (181 showings) $98K

 

Normally this would be $4.75-5M but it will likely underindex here. Using the previous film ratio gives $5.35M. ~$5.75M including early shows seems good.

I mean you say that, but you've been overpredicting preview numbers like crazy over the past couple weeks. Just saying...

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Twisters T-43: 48.83% Awareness, 53.83% Interest

They Listen T-85: 9.83% Awareness, 35.08% Interest

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever T-155: 8.6% Awareness, 27.85% Interest

Moana 2 T-174: 44.58% Awareness, 50.45% Interest

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 T-197: 41.42% Awareness, 44% Interest

 

Bad Boys for Life T-1: 67.03% Awareness, 58.38% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 88% chance of 30M, 85% chance of 40M, 73% chance of 50M, 58% chance of 60M, 46% chance of 70M

Medium Awareness: 100% chance of 70M

Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 45% chance of 40M, 31% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M

Medium Interest: 75% chance of 20M, 58% chance of 30M, 25% chance of 40M, 8% chance of 50M

 

The Watchers T-1: 31.97% Awareness, 45.95% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 47% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 45% chance of 10M

 

Inside Out 2 T-8: 57.54% Awareness, 51.83% Interest

Final Awareness: 92% chance of 20M, 73% chance of 30M, 35% chance of 40M, 23% chance of 50M, 15% chance of 60M, 11% chance of 90M, 8% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M

Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 45% chance of 40M, 31% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M, 14% chance of 80M, 11% chance of 90M, 8% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 86% chance of 30M, 71% chance of 50M, 43% chance of 90M, 29% chance of 100M

 

Cuckoo T-57: 11.07% Awareness, 37.24% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 46% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 33% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 40% chance of 10M

 

Borderlands T-64: 28.31% Awareness, 42.84% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 75% chance of 10M, 37% chance of 20M

T-60 Interest: 62% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M

Medium Interest: 68% chance of 10M, 36% chance of 20M

[AnthonyJPHer]

8 hours ago, emoviefan said:

I am going to go out on a limb and say Iowa is not a big market for this franchise. Just a hunch I have.

As an Iowan myself, yeah, it really isn’t. There’s a reason I didn’t track this release. 

[keysersoze123]

On 6/4/2024 at 3:58 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC1

Previews - 25019/623680 473646.09 3208 shows +3632

Friday - 25863/1032380 460739.91 5304 shows +4700 

 

+2 days of data. I expect presales to accelerate even more this week and of course leading up to final week. 

Inside Out 2 MTC1

Previews(T-7) - 31883/626935 596891.81 3227 shows +6864

Friday - 36189/1037440 634541.05 5335 shows +10326

This is as of yesterday night. +2 days and few hours plus of data. Its definitely starting to amp up now big time just as I expected.  

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/2/2024 at 10:36 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Inside Out 2 (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	182	61	279	29579	0.94

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		122	22	43.73
MTC1:		139	30	49.82
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		140	31	50.18

 

Comps:

5.26x The Garfield Movie (THU): $10.13 Million

4.98x IF: $8.72 Million

1.66x Kung Fu Panda 4: $6.32 Million (17 theaters)

0.94x Wonka: $3.3 Million (17 theaters)

1.33x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $4.13 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $6.52 Million

 

I think top 2 comps are and will be falling, bottom 2 are and will be rising. Still mostly following along that Kung Fu Panda 4 number for now.

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Inside Out 2 (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	183	287	566	29718	1.9

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		240	118	42.4
MTC1:		257	118	45.41
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		309	169	54.59

 

Comps:

8.32x The Garfield Movie (THU): $16.02 Million

6.02x IF: $10.54 Million

1.87x Kung Fu Panda 4: $7.12 Million (17 theaters)

1.49x Wonka: $5.21 Million (17 theaters)

5.14x Trolls 3: $6.68 Million

Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): Missed

 

Average: $9.11 Million

 

Garfield is a bad comp because EA was still syphoning off a bunch of sales at this point, but all other comps also went up significantly. This also has PLFs, as opposed to comps like Trolls or Garfield. Still think KFP4 is the best comp, but some really good signs here!

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/2/2024 at 10:43 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

A Quiet Place: Day One (T-25):

Day: T-25	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	141	146	146	24781	0.59

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		119	119	81.51
MTC1:		106	106	72.6
Alamo:		12	12	8.22
Other chains:		28	28	19.18

 

Comps:

0.58x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Total): $3.81 Million

0.77x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $3.44 Million (17 theaters)

1.76x Exorcist Believer: $5.03 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $4.09 Million

 

Quite a good start, all of these (imperfect) comps had much larger windows so they should be going up the next couple of updates before it stabilizes

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

A Quiet Place: Day One (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	138	12	158	24094	0.66

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		135	16	85.44
MTC1:		127	21	80.38
Alamo:		0	-12	0
Other chains:		31	3	19.62

 

Comps:

0.51x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Total): $3.37 Million

0.71x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $3.18 Million (17 theaters)

1.6x Exorcist Believer: $4.55 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $3.7 Million

 

I welcome any comp ideas here!

[abracadabra1998]

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-42, Day 1):

Day: T-42, T-41	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 22 theaters	131	49	49	21730	0.23
Wednesday July 17 EA: 13 theaters	17	39	39	3492	1.12
TOTALS:	148	88	88	25222	0.35

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		39	39	79.59
MTC1:		28	28	57.14
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		21	21	42.86

 

Day 1 Comps (EA included):

1.26x Fall Guy: $3.96 Million

1.17x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $7.74 Million

0.42x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $1.98 Million

0.99x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $4.44 Million

0.37x FNAF: $3.8 Million

 

Average: $4.38 Million

 

All Day 1 Comps, I also welcome any comp suggestions for the future! Pretty good start