The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/21/2024 at 8:59 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

TWISTERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-27

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
548	1677	107948	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

34

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-27

(0.474x) of Dune 2 $4.41M
Comps AVG: $4.41M 

 

Is this good? Yes

Am i seeing a $70M+ OW? No, but there's still time I guess. Seeing more like $40M-$50M

 

(Don't know if this makes sense comp-wise, but Garfield is at $5.14M) 

FLORIDA 

 

TWISTERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
548	1866	107948	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

16

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-20

(1.055x) of Apes $5.27M

(0.890x) of Ghostbusters $4.18M
Comps AVG: $4.73M 

 

Not much to add. Pace is still anemic

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/26/2024 at 10:49 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

With low ticket prices I wonder if MTC1 go below 20% on Friday, may be even 17-18%.

14%

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Wednesday(T-7) - 30125/1160261 496944.75 6239 shows +4025

(T-6) - 35260/1160010 579194.08 6239 shows +5135

 

I did not post update for T-7. its definitely on the move at this point. Its hard to extrapolate Wednesday release with Friday numbers as final ramp up is different. 1 Wednesday comp is Mario. That was at 101728 and daily pace of 9583. That also had a strong finish. I am thinking mid to high teens OD. I wonder what @charlie Jatinder or @M37 thinks it can do. 

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Wednesday(T-5) - 43618/1175114 716128.41 6320 shows  +8358

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Wednesday(T-5) - 42987/1161405 701780.20  6245 shows +7727

Midnight shows - 633/13709 14386.19 75 shows

 

1st it does have few midnight shows but its not going make a big difference. On Wednesday it does jump a bit. let us see how next 2 days goes. I may have been too low but will wait until Sunday night to update my predictions. 

 

Edit: midnight shows were also wrongly included in OD BO. 

Edited Saturday at 03:08 PM by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

14%

Not surprised. Even yesterday I had expected like 16-17% for previews and Friday ratio does go down quite a bit from previews. This is not a MTC1 movie at all. No PLF to increase ATP as well. 

[Porthos]

On 6/28/2024 at 1:52 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-28 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	27981	33622	5641	16.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

47

 

T-28 Comp

	%		Sold T-28	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	76.20		654	7403		0/329	33513/40916	18.09%		21117	26.71%		27.43m
BP2	106.84		139	5280		1/294	31742/37022	14.26%		16800	33.58%		29.91m
AM3	171.72		227	3285		0/231	29080/32365	10.15%		10475	53.85%		30.05m
GOTG3	229.03		112	2463		0/205	27105/29568	8.33%		10750	52.47%		40.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1214/12925  [9.39% sold]
Matinee:    312/4469  [6.98% | 5.53% of all tickets sold]
3D:             601/6801  [8.84% | 10.65% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2937/11532  [25.47% | 52.07% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        44 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    47 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-27 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	27897	33622	5725	17.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

84

 

T-27 Comp

	%		Sold T-27	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	73.19		419	7822		0/329	33094/40916	19.12%		21117	27.11%		26.35m
BP2	106.10		116	5396		1/294	31623/37019	14.58%		16800	34.08%		29.71m
AM3	167.35		136	3421		0/235	29108/32529	10.52%		10475	54.65%		29.29m
GOTG3	223.90		94	2557		0/206	27114/29671	8.62%		10750	53.26%		39.18m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1236/12925  [9.56% sold]
Matinee:    326/4469  [7.29% | 5.69% of all tickets sold]
3D:              619/6801  [9.10% | 10.81% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2976/11532  [25.81% | 51.98% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        71 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    74 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

=====

 

Pretty decent sized jump tonight over the average of the last week or so.  More or less what I was expecting as it's still pretty far out.  I expect it to come back down to earth tomorrow, though there might still be some residual ticket sales from awareness from buzz/discussion.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/27/2024 at 6:16 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 T-7 Days

 

Wednesday - 2060/101206 (391 showings)

 

Comps

Minions 2 ~ $42M

 

Inside Out 2 - $27M

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $29.5M

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC T-5 Days

 

Wednesday - 3336/132993 (534 showings)

 

Comps

Minions 2 ~ $38M

 

Inside Out 2 - $28M

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $34M (adjusted for overindexing ~$31M)

[vafrow]

On 6/28/2024 at 6:49 AM, vafrow said:

 

Despicable Me 4, T-6 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 262

New Sales: 38

Growth: 17%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 63

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.2

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 39/13

Early Afternoon: 65/13

Late Afternoon: 36/13

Early Evening: 119/12

Late Evening: 4/13

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 19/18

Regular 3D: 13/15

Dolby: 182/17

Dolby 3D: 7/3

IMAX: 41/10

 

Comps

2.519x Inside Out 2 for $32.8M

1.941x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $9.3M

3.853x GB:FE for $14.3M

4.943x Wonka for $17.3M

32.750x IF for $57.3M

Average: $26.2M

 

Doing well. What's interesting though is how much it's falling off the national pace. My sample was originally 8.2% of national volumes at T-11. It's now at 6.8%.

 

But it's still overperforming the average location by about double. So it's likely that there's just more up front activity in my location.

 

Despicable Me 4, T-5 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 350

New Sales: 88

Growth: 34%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 63

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 5.6

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 52/13

Early Afternoon: 85/13

Late Afternoon: 54/13

Early Evening: 150/12

Late Evening: 9/13

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 25/18

Regular 3D: 20/15

Dolby: 250/17

Dolby 3D: 7/3

IMAX: 48/10

 

Comps

2.734x Inside Out 2 for $35.5M

2.273x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $10.9M

4.605x GB:FE for $17.0M

6.250x Wonka for $21.9M

43.750x IF for $76.6M

Average: $32.4M

 

It had a good day, outpacing the national trend. With schools now closed, I anticipate things will start picking up pace as parents look for ways to occupy the kids.

[vafrow]

On 6/22/2024 at 8:22 AM, vafrow said:

 

Twisters, T-27 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 9

New Sales since T-33: 4

Growth: 80%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.5

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 24

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/5

Early Evening: 6/6

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 7/8

IMAX: 1/6

4DX: 1/3

 

Previews Comps

2.250x Fall Guy for $7.1M

0.643x KOTPOTA for $3.2M

 

EA Comp

1.143x Fall Guy for $0.9M

 

I've been meaning to get an update out on this as the forecasting has been showing up the last few days.

 

We're starting to see some activity. Pacing a bit ahead of Fall Guy, both on previews and EA is encouraging. Especially since Fall Guy had a lot more aggressive marketing campaign at the outset. 

 

The reality is that it's still low numbers overall, so it's hard to read too much this far out. I wouldn't look at these numbers and throw out a $70M opener like is being seen elsewhere, but I'm not ruling it out.

 

Twisters, T-20 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 9

New Sales since T-27: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.5

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 35

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/5

Early Evening: 6/6

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 7/8

IMAX: 1/6

4DX: 1/3

 

Previews Comps

1.883x Fall Guy for $5.8M

0.367x KOTPOTA for $1.8M

0.647x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $3.8M

 

EA Comp

1.207x Fall Guy for $1.0M

 

The approach on EA showings really throw this off. Thankfully I have the Fall Guy numbers which had a similar set up, but the issue is that I have four of my theatres with Wednesday EA showings that's grabbing the bulk of the sales. This would be ahead of both Bad Boys and KOTPOTA otherwise. 

 

However, The Fall Guy did well in EA sales but it didn't translate to a strong performance in the end.

 

We'll continue to wait and see on this.

[vafrow]

On 6/22/2024 at 8:07 AM, vafrow said:

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, T-34, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 2002

New Sales since T-41: 136

Growth: 7%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 48.8

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 204/13

Early Evening: 1037/14

Late Evening: 761/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (1667/21)

Regular: 7/1

Dolby: 407/5

IMAX: 848/4

VIP: 392/8

4DX: 13/3

 

3D (335/20)

Regular: 57/2

Dolby: 133/4

IMAX: 40/2

VIP: 101/6

 

Comps 

No suitable comps available 

 

Staying at about 1% growth a day isn't too bad at this stage. I'll need to see what's available, but will hopefully be able to have a comp by the next update. We're starting to approach that zone.

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, T-27, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 2002

New Sales since T-34: 60

Growth: 3%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 50.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 223/13

Early Evening: 1090/14

Late Evening: 749/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (1693/21)

Regular: 11/1

Dolby: 422/5

IMAX: 838/4

VIP: 402/8

4DX: 20/3

 

3D (369/20)

Regular: 62/2

Dolby: 150/4

IMAX: 46/2

VIP: 111/6

 

Comps 

3.519x Dune 2 (w/ EA) for $42.2M

0.819x Eras Tour (unadjusted for ATP) for $30.9M

 

A few notes:

-growth is probably understated as I'm pretty sure I had a counting error of about 40 on aj IMAX screening last time.

 

-I've added back comps. I still lack great comps, but it's something. Only MCU comp I have is The Marvels and only tracked final two weeks. I also had to stop Eras tour in the final couple of weeks,so that will drop off.

 

[jeffthehat]

On 6/28/2024 at 9:56 AM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana Lite

A Quiet Place: Day One Fri T-0

Sales	Seats	Shows
1837	25666	137

TC=10, pulled 10 AM EST

Comps

0.91x Bad Boys 4 Fri T-0 = $14.1m

1.04x Kingdom Apes Fri T-0 = $16.2m

 

AVG = $15.15m

Indiana Lite

A Quiet Place: Day One Sat T-0 

Sales	Seats	Shows
1856	24891	132

TC=10, pulled 10 AM EST

Comps

1.01x AQP D1 Fri T-0 = $15.9m

0.84x Bad Boys 4 Sat T-0 = $16.3m

0.86x Kingdom Apes Sat T-0 = $17.3m

 

AVG = $16.49m

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/28/2024 at 7:19 AM, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 A Quiet Place Day One

T-0 Friday: 9468/191771

15 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 A Quiet Place Day One

T-1 Saturday: 5106/197104

MTC4 A Quiet Place Day One

T-0 Saturday: 8982/194366

 

[Tinalera]

Deadpool Wolverine

Thurs July 25 and Fri July 26 (T-27)

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	24	1202	3184	4386	0.2740
	Fri	3	29	618	4715	5333	0.1158
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	26	1071	3320	4391	0.2439
	Fri	4	27	682	4232	4914	0.1387

 

 

Slowing a little bit but still pretty steady esp for those Thurs nights which are hovering around 24=27 percent mark with just less than a month to go

[keysersoze123]

On 6/22/2024 at 3:10 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows(7/17) - 4135/66111 89428.73 291 shows +421

Previews(7/18) - 9772/548350 190707.74 2688 shows +812

 

Slightly under 4 days of presales. Still terrible. 

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows(7/17) - 5417/66111 116656.41 291 shows +1282

Previews(7/18) - 12037/551302 234407.47 2709 shows +2265

Friday - 9483/768345 178263.33 3781 shows

 

Ouch almost no pace. it barely grew in a week. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/26/2024 at 2:45 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Opening Day:

 

Despicable Me 4 (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	308	287	570	50455	1.13

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		218	70	38.25
MTC1:		184	54	32.28
Other chains:		386	233	67.72

 

Comps (previews):

1x Inside Out 2: $13.09 Million

1.79x Kung Fu Panda 4: $6.79 Million (17 theaters)

5.78x Migration: $8.67 Million (17 theaters)

 

Comps (Opening Day):

0.86x Paw Patrol The Mighty Movie: $5.84 Million (17 theaters)

1.25x Madame Web: $7.55 Million (17 theaters)

0.49x Bob Marley: $6.87 Million (17 theaters)

 

Ramping up for sure. Added a couple of Wednesday opening day comps. Fact is I don't have much that really fits as a good comp 

 

Minnesota Opening Day:

 

Despicable Me 4 (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	306	770	1340	48891	2.74

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		536	318	40
MTC1:		411	227	30.67
Other chains:		929	543	69.33

 

Comps (previews):

1.43x Inside Out 2: $18.61 Million

2.81x Kung Fu Panda 4: $10.68 Million (17 theaters)

7.75x Migration: $11.63 Million (17 theaters)

 

Comps (Opening Day):

1.11x Paw Patrol The Mighty Movie (FRI): $7.52 Million (17 theaters)

1.82x Madame Web (WED): $11.01 Million (17 theaters)

0.66x Bob Marley (WED): $9.29 Million (17 theaters)

 

Wowza! Incredible update. Something to keep an eye on is that tomorrow, T-3, will be on Sunday, as opposed to the other animated releases which are all Thursday releases, so I expect comps will likely go down, and then pick back up again strong on Monday

[abracadabra1998]

Do I understand correctly that Maxxxine has EA on Wednesday, NO Thursday previews, and Opening Day on Friday? 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-27 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	27897	33622	5725	17.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

84

 

T-27 Comp

	%		Sold T-27	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	73.19		419	7822		0/329	33094/40916	19.12%		21117	27.11%		26.35m
BP2	106.10		116	5396		1/294	31623/37019	14.58%		16800	34.08%		29.71m
AM3	167.35		136	3421		0/235	29108/32529	10.52%		10475	54.65%		29.29m
GOTG3	223.90		94	2557		0/206	27114/29671	8.62%		10750	53.26%		39.18m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1236/12925  [9.56% sold]
Matinee:    326/4469  [7.29% | 5.69% of all tickets sold]
3D:              619/6801  [9.10% | 10.81% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2976/11532  [25.81% | 51.98% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        71 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    74 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

=====

 

Pretty decent sized jump tonight over the average of the last week or so.  More or less what I was expecting as it's still pretty far out.  I expect it to come back down to earth tomorrow, though there might still be some residual ticket sales from awareness from buzz/discussion.

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-26 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	27850	33622	5772	17.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

47

 

T-26 Comp

	%		Sold T-26	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	71.20		285	8107		0/329	32809/40916	19.81%		21117	27.33%		25.63m
BP2	104.98		102	5498		1/294	31521/37019	14.85%		16800	34.36%		29.40m
AM3	163.61		107	3528		0/235	29016/32544	10.84%		10475	55.10%		28.63m
GOTG3	218.22		88	2645		0/206	27026/29671	8.91%		10750	53.69%		38.19m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1252/12925  [9.69% sold]
Matinee:    332/4469  [7.43% | 5.75% of all tickets sold]
3D:             636/6801  [9.35% | 11.02% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2991/11532  [25.94% | 51.82% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        40 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    44 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/29/2024 at 2:59 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC T-5 Days

 

Wednesday - 3336/132993 (534 showings)

 

Comps

Minions 2 ~ $37M

 

Inside Out 2 - $28M

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $34M (adjusted for overindexing ~$31M)

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 T-4 Days

 

Wednesday - 4223/134674 (543 showings)

 

Comps

Minions 2 - $33M

 

Inside Out 2 - $26M

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $29M (adjusted for over indexing ~$27M)

[JonathanMB]

8 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Do I understand correctly that Maxxxine has EA on Wednesday, NO Thursday previews, and Opening Day on Friday? 

 

Yup, correct

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Despicable Me 4, T-5 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 350

New Sales: 88

Growth: 34%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 63

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 5.6

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 52/13

Early Afternoon: 85/13

Late Afternoon: 54/13

Early Evening: 150/12

Late Evening: 9/13

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 25/18

Regular 3D: 20/15

Dolby: 250/17

Dolby 3D: 7/3

IMAX: 48/10

 

Comps

2.734x Inside Out 2 for $35.5M

2.273x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $10.9M

4.605x GB:FE for $17.0M

6.250x Wonka for $21.9M

43.750x IF for $76.6M

Average: $32.4M

 

It had a good day, outpacing the national trend. With schools now closed, I anticipate things will start picking up pace as parents look for ways to occupy the kids.

 

Despicable Me 4, T-4 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 425

New Sales: 75

Growth: 21%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 61

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 7.0

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 81/13

Early Afternoon: 94/13

Late Afternoon: 68/13

Early Evening: 173/12

Late Evening: 9/11

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 47/17

Regular 3D: 17/11

Dolby: 290/17

Dolby 3D: 14/3

IMAX: 49/10

4DX: 8/3

 

Comps

2.707x Inside Out 2 for $35.2M

2.094x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $10.0M

5.120x GB:FE for $18.9M

5.903x Wonka for $20.7M

35.417x IF for $62.0M

Average: $29.4M

 

It slipped a bit off pace with comps, but that might be because dates aren't lining up. For other films being comped, the T-4 is usually the Monday morning update, which tends to be stronger.

 

Another note is that with tomorrow being a major holiday, it might throw off numbers. On that same issue, I'll be out of town for the next few days. I'll try and update, but it gets harder from the road, so if I'm not posting, that's why.

[filmlover]

Twisters is likely going to depend on reviews. If they're weak then underperformer incoming.