The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Grand Cine]

39 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	302	28539	38190	9651	25.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

525

 

T-5 Comp

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	71.44		446	13509		0/353	29171/42680	31.65%		21117	45.70%		25.72m
L&T	107.60		302	8969		0/251	24732/33701	26.61%		16962	56.90%		31.21m
BP2	101.42		412	9516		2/307	28444/37960	25.07%		16800	57.45%		28.40m
AM3	152.92		127	6311		0/249	27315/33626	18.77%		10475	92.13%		26.76m
GOTG3	185.13		265	5213		0/226	26601/31814	16.39%		10750	89.78%		32.40m
Bats	170.72		251	5653		0/297	31137/36790	15.37%		11757	82.09%		36.88m
Ava 2	205.95		296	4686		0/198	22541/27227	17.21%		8986	107.40%		35.01m
Wick 4	467.59		166	2064		0/118	14480/16544	12.48%		5448	177.15%		41.62m
Dune 2	291.84		190	3307		0/185	23090/26397	12.53%		6001	160.82%		35.02m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     2276/13029  [17.47% sold]
Matinee:    669/4466  [14.98% | 6.93% of all tickets sold]
3D:             1134/7731  [14.67% | 11.75% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         4021/11729  [34.28% | 41.66% of all tickets sold]
———    
[NOT A COMP - INFO PURPOSES ONLY]    
DP3 sold     489 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     501 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———    
***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.67687x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-5 [40.85m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

Like MiniTC4 , Sacramento has already accelerated at two days earlier than usual. Clearly The Final Trailer felt good for the tracking. I think at this point 19K finish for the movie if reviews are good so around 33M .

[Cooper Legion]

8 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

Like MiniTC4 , Sacramento has already accelerated at two days earlier than usual. Clearly The Final Trailer felt good for the tracking. I think at this point 19K finish for the movie if reviews are good so around 33M .

FWIW I would guess ~20k for now

 

t-5 to final growth:

DS2 +56%

L&T +89%

BP2 +76.5%

gotg3 +106%

bats +108%

atsv +172% (btw @Porthos won’t grow enough to hit the t-5 comp or anything, but I think this should be a fine add to the comp block for the final stretch)

 

100-115 seems realistic here depending on how things play out

[JohnnyGossamer]

Looking forward to the parking lot reports during the DP&W opening weekend. Members that have been here for a minute will know what I mean... Hopefully it gives them a chuckle.

[Boxofficerules]

31 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Looking forward to the parking lot reports during the DP&W opening weekend. Members that have been here for a minute will know what I mean... Hopefully it gives them a chuckle.

What's a parking lot report?

[JohnnyGossamer]

4 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

What's a parking lot report?

There was a time when a former user here would gage a movies opening weekend on how full the theater parking lots were at his local theater during the opening weekend. 

[excel1]

10 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

What's a parking lot report?

 

% full of local theater's parking lot provides a highly accurate estimate for a movies box office business..especially for marvel movies..

[kayumanggi]

 

[Mojoguy]

3 hours ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

There was a time when a former user here would gage a movies opening weekend on how full the theater parking lots were at his local theater during the opening weekend. 

Deadpool 3 will have full parking lots for sure. 

[Geo1500]

13 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Deadpool 3 will have full parking lots for sure. 

 

According to Ryan Reynolds this is not a Deadpool 3 movie but rather an MCU team up movie and he also said that it was not a wolverine 10 lmao He is funny. All tho the movie links up with Logan and Deadpool characters it is not DP 3 nor Logan 2. It is more like a team up movie like Avengers and you will see so many characters, cameos, TVA, villains, etc etc

Edited July 21 by Geo1500

[Porthos]

NOT THE THREAD... I REPEAT NOT THE THREAD

 

But I wonder if DP3 sales will take a slight hit today.  It'll be hard to tell, and it could be that the sheer level of interest in DP3 will simply swamp the story, buuuuuuuuuuuut...

 

Do wonder if DP3 will take a very slight hit today.

 

(THIS IS A TRACKING RELATED POST AND ****NOT**** A US POLITICS POST)

[Grand Cine]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

NOT THE THREAD... I REPEAT NOT THE THREAD

 

But I wonder if DP3 sales will take a slight hit today.  It'll be hard to tell, and it could be that the sheer level of interest in DP3 will simply swamp the story, buuuuuuuuuuuut...

 

Do wonder if DP3 will take a very slight hit today.

 

(THIS IS A TRACKING RELATED POST AND ****NOT**** A US POLITICS POST)

I don't think so and if it hits, tomorrow will be much better with World Premiere and the end of embargo .

[AniNate]

Honestly I'm kind of already spent by it. It happened, I formed my opinion, and now I'm moving on from it.

 

For the record Twisters second weekend sales now at over 50 in N Canton

 

 

Edited July 21 by AniNate

[blazera]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

NOT THE THREAD... I REPEAT NOT THE THREAD

 

But I wonder if DP3 sales will take a slight hit today.  It'll be hard to tell, and it could be that the sheer level of interest in DP3 will simply swamp the story, buuuuuuuuuuuut...

 

Do wonder if DP3 will take a very slight hit today.

 

(THIS IS A TRACKING RELATED POST AND ****NOT**** A US POLITICS POST)

Ok I have to ask. Why should "that" news today affect presales for a movie?

 

Don't get it honestly 

[Youngstar]

35 minutes ago, blazera said:

Ok I have to ask. Why should "that" news today affect presales for a movie?

 

Don't get it honestly 

The theory is probably that people are going to watch news all day and therefore forget to buy tickets.

[AniNate]

Yeah I mean what's there to watch news about? Unlike that other thing there's no "true crime investigation" itch that's being scratched here, it's something that's been a media narrative for awhile and the announcement is just a welcome conclusion to it.

[Menor the Destroyer]

The idea behind news events affecting ticket sales is generally that one really big event crowds out headlines/space in which people might otherwise have happened to see some kind of promo or reminder that the film was coming out, or just that in general big news events tend to distract attention from other things. It's not about people watching news all day. 

Edited July 21 by Menor the Destroyer

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/18/2024 at 5:36 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	370	2297	7442	52739	14.11

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		4185	980	56.23
MTC1:		3030	657	40.71
Other chains:		4412	1640	59.29

 

Comps:

2.2x Dune Part 2 (THU): $21.99 Million (17 theaters)

4.7x Marvels: $31.05 Million (17 theaters)

1.18x Barbenheimer: $37.29 Million (17 theaters)

 

That Dune comp is not very good, I think, because it overindexed in my market, and also that was before I expanded my sample to include more theaters outside of the metro. The Marvels comp gives me a good feeling because that had a terrible final week, so it could easily go up

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	379	1596	9038	53459	16.91

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		4828	643	53.42
MTC1:		3459	429	38.27
Other chains:		5579	1167	61.73

 

Comps:

2.23x Dune Part 2 (THU): $22.3 Million (17 theaters)

5.03x Marvels: $33.21 Million (17 theaters)

1.07x Barbenheimer: $33.9 Million (17 theaters)

 

Time to get serious here, tracking daily from now on

[Tinalera]

Deadpool Wolverine

Toronto and Montreal

Thurs July 25 Fri July 26 (T-5)

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent	Added shows
Toronto	Thurs	4	51	3292	9197	12489	0.2635	10
	Fri	4	49	2854	9471	12325	0.2315	minus 2
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Montreal	Thurs	4	53	2002	6118	11049	0.1811	20
	Fri	4	40	2091	7126	9217	0.2268	1

 

 

Okay the seats added......I dont know if the whole IT meltdown affected Cineplex or what....but I was seeing strange things like solme theatres which had a lot more seats sold before (in Toronto) suddenly their numbers dropped. Not all of them, maybe 3 or 4 shows. Also the numbers I was getting adding (or removing?) shows....something seemed wonky. Otherwise the numbers seem to be progressing, but just a little bit of transparency here.

 

Anyone else doing Canada stuff encounter wonky stuff post IT stuff?

[Boxofficerules]

I just pre ordered tickets for Thursday morning at 10, it was 3/4 sold out, I can't remember the last time an early morning screening was that full, maybe Avengers

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/19/2024 at 11:28 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
244	12138	46659	26.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

731

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

*2 sellouts

COMPS

T-6

(1.744x) of GOTG 3 $30.52M

(1.482x) of Barbenheimer $46.83M

Still outpacing GOTG at a healthy rate. Safe to say the trailer was a strong accelerating push. Pretty big jump today

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
283	13223	55507	23.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

547

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

39

*2 sellouts

COMPS

T-4

(1.733x) of GOTG 3 $33.36M *10% ATP adjustment 

(1.382x) of Barbenheimer $43.68M

 

Comps AVG: $38.52M

Barbeheimer still coming down. GOTG stays steady (added an arbitrary 10% ATP adjustment to account for PG-13 vs R-rating price discrepancies)

 

Sticking with ~$35M for previews

Edited July 21 by TheFlatLannister