The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/21/2024 at 11:03 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

It Ends With Us (T-18):

Day: T-18, T-17	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 21 theaters	66	63	157	6457	2.43
Wednesday EA: 9 theaters	9	73	128	946	13.53
TOTALS:	75	136	285	7403	3.85

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		42	25	26.75
Other chains:		115	38	73.25

 

Comps (Total EA + THU):

1.24x Fall Guy: $3.92 Million

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

It Ends With Us (T-14):

Day: T-14, T-13	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 21 theaters	67	154	311	6665	4.67
Wednesday EA: 9 theaters	9	110	238	946	25.16
TOTALS:	76	264	549	7611	7.21

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		91	49	29.26
Other chains:		220	105	70.74

 

Comps (Total EA + THU):

1.93x Fall Guy: $6.09 Million

2.18x Mean Girls (w/ EA): $7.1 Million

 

 

Yoooo wtf? Now I know that this will be frontloaded and my comps are ass but these are stellar sales with 14 days to go. I'll have better comps as we go along but I'm keeping an eye on this, has some mini-break out potential

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/21/2024 at 11:11 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Alien: Romulus (T-25):

Day: T-25	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	109	36	222	18127	1.22

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		185	32	83.33
MTC1:		169	25	76.13
Other chains:		53	11	23.87

 

Comps:

0.85x Twisters (w/ EA): $9.14 Million

0.88x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $5.79 Million

1.13x Fall Guy (w/ EA): $3.57 Million

1.16x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $5.23 Million (17 theaters)

2.68x Exorcist Believer: $7.64 Million (17 theaters)

 

This is doing quite well honestly!

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Alien: Romulus (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	106	43	265	17518	1.51

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		218	33	82.26
MTC1:		196	27	73.96
Other chains:		69	16	26.04

 

Comps:

0.82x Twisters (w/ EA): $8.75 Million

1.68x Quiet Place Day One: $11.41 Million

0.86x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $5.66 Million

1.23x Fall Guy (w/ EA): $3.88 Million

1.19x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $5.37 Million (17 theaters)

2.7x Exorcist Believer: $7.7 Million (17 theaters)

 

 

[Bob Train]

Hunger Games could be a good comp for It Ends With Us. Maybe DWD and Crawdads too.

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:30am - 12:35pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	360	24411	41421	17010	41.07%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	1
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	29
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	1585

 

T-0 Comp (Mid-Day)

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	64.37		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	60.36%		32.19m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	87.41		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	80.55%		31.47m
L&T [11:30-12:25]	114.12		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	100.28%		33.09m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	115.35		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	101.25%		32.30m
AM3 [11:30-12:25]	181.11		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	162.39%		31.69m
GOTG3 [11:30-12:15]	184.91		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	158.23%		32.36m
AtSV [11:40-12:15]	210.83		1033	8068		0/251	22776/30844	26.16%		9744	174.57%		36.58m
Bats [11:30-12:35]	162.34		939	10478		1/327	28376/38854	26.97%		11757	144.68%		35.07m
Ava 2 [11:30-12:15]	215.13		666	7907		0/310	27128/35035	22.57%		8986	189.29%		36.57m
Wick 4 [11:45-12:20]	391.48		430	4345		0/185	18230/22575	19.25%		5448	312.22%		34.84m
Dune 2 [11:40-12:20]	315.35		384	5394		0/244	25489/30883	17.47%		6001	283.45%		37.84m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     4607/12504  [36.84% sold]
Matinee:    1471/4223  [34.83% | 8.65% of all tickets sold]
3D:            2397/7617  [31.47% | 14.09% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        5866/11103  [52.83% | 34.49% of all tickets sold]
———    
[NOT A COMP - INFO PURPOSES ONLY]    
DP3 sold     1456 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     1483 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———    
***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.70995x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-1 [41.66m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%] [lol]

 

====

 

Very strong start to the day, as expected.  Still looking like Sacramento is pointing to 35m-36m, if I use the higher ATP movies as a guide post, but could pip into the 36-37 range depending on how strong the rest of the day is.  Still not entirely sure how much I want to adjust for ATP hikes and slightly fewer kids tickets sold, but that's what those higher end comps are for.

 

Either way, selling like pancakes chimichangas out here in the land of tomatoes. 👍

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:45pm - 4:40pm]

NOTE:  All showtimes that started before 3:45pm were sampled at the start of its screening.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	375	23316	42664	19348	45.35%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	15
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	1243
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	2338

 

T-0 Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH [3:00-4:30]	68.65		1758	28183		4/395	15229/43412	64.92%		28183	68.65%		34.33m
MoM [3:30-4:35]	91.62		1656	21117		0/409	25412/46529	45.38%		21117	91.62%		32.98m
L&T [3:45-4:35]	114.07		2056	16962		0/320	23111/40073	42.33%		16962	114.07%		33.08m
BP2 [3:45-4:35]	115.17		2053	16800		2/376	26426/43216	38.87%		16800	115.17%		32.25m
AM3 [3:45-4:30]	184.71		1083	10475		0/307	26899/37374	28.03%		10475	184.71%		32.32m
GOTG3 [3:45-4:30]	179.98		1551	10750		0/347	31169/41919	25.64%		10750	179.98%		31.50m
AtSV [3:50-4:20]	198.56		1676	9744		0/266	22261/32005	30.45%		9744	198.56%		34.45m
Bats [3:00-4:30]	164.57		1279	11757		1/328	27144/38901	30.22%		11757	164.57%		35.55m
Ava 2 [3:50-4:25]	215.31		1079	8986		0/310	26049/35035	25.65%		8986	215.31%		36.60m
Wick 4 [3:50-4:15]	355.14		1103	5448		0/186	17238/22686	24.01%		5448	355.14%		31.61m
Dune 2 [3:50-4:15]	322.41		607	6001		0/250	25311/31312	19.17%		6001	322.41%		38.69m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     5342/12504   [42.72% sold]
Matinee:    1868/4223  [44.23% | 9.65% of all tickets sold]
3D:            2822/7617   [37.05% | 14.59% of all tickets sold]
PLF:    6434/11103        [57.95% | 33.25% of all tickets sold]
———    
[NOT A COMP - INFO PURPOSES ONLY]    
DP3 sold     2112 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     2168 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———    
***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.66379x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-1 [40.53m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

 

=====

 

 

Had to jump alllll over my sheet to capture showtimes before they rolled off of availability.  Didn't help that there were a bunch of new showtimes over at MTC2 than Fandango didn't deign to tell me about.

 

What's that?  Don't care one whit about my troubles?  Don't blame you. 😛 

 

Just a monster monster monster day.  After collecting the wayward MTC2 showings, that was enough to make this yet another record half-day.  And easily so.   Still, I don't want to get too far ahead of my skis.  Haven't checked out the other markets which may or may not have checked in whilst I was dragging my eyeballs across 400 combined showtimes, but doing some averaging on the high ATP grossers, let's go with 36.5m +/- 1.5m and call it a night.

 

Little leery of adding that extra .5m, but it's been a while for most of these films, plus the R-rating, yadda yadda yadda.  Data is probably pointing to 36m, flat, buuuuut... Let's live a little.

 

If I'm even close, considering all of the factors in play, I'll call it a win.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Time for Sacra magic to do it's thing.

[Cooper Legion]

Sacto size adj avg on the last two updates ticked up from 32.45->33.05->33.85   
 

I think I agree with 36+- based purely on Sacto but mtcs definitely suggest the plus, probably like 37.5-40 but we’ll see what we see. Great finish either way

[M37]

11 hours ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Thu: 450892/1497052 7796982.98 10022 shows  +62197

Sat: 270897/1909938 4538426.28 11563 shows

 

 

Solid day. There was an issue in getting Fri data

A standard MCU T-0 day of 45% growth would be a ~650K finish …. But this isn’t behaving like a typical MCU film. A walk-up monster final (aka Jurassic) would be a ~750K final, but that’s probably asking too much (and/or stretching seating capacity) 

 

So let’s just split the difference, call it 700K expected tickets, use the DC baseline PSM of $50/tix, bump up a bit due to R rating (adult ticket skew = higher ATP) and math it out to like $36.5M 

 

(But Disney likes to round their big previews, so $36 or $37M)

[kayumanggi]

 

[Porthos]

25 minutes ago, M37 said:

So let’s just split the difference, call it 700K expected tickets, use the DC baseline PSM of $50/tix, bump up a bit due to R rating (adult ticket skew = higher ATP) and math it out to like $36.5M 

 

(But Disney likes to round their big previews, so $36 or $37M)

 

40 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Haven't checked out the other markets which may or may not have checked in whilst I was dragging my eyeballs across 400 combined showtimes, but doing some averaging on the high ATP grossers, let's go with 36.5m +/- 1.5m and call it a night.

 

 

(for the record, I went for the "Disney rounds to the nearest .5m" for my 'call' 😛 )

[Migs20242]

 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine

T-1 Thursday: 85238/365615

T-2 Friday: 77283/504375

T-3 Saturday: 56866/508671

T-4 Sunday: 29151/498677

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine

T-0 Thursday: 102709/365615

T-1 Friday: 99004/568101

T-2 Saturday: 69323/571670

T-3 Sunday: 36035/559737

 

Thursday numbers are from about 6 hours ago

[blazera]

4 minutes ago, Migs20242 said:

 

So do you guys read this as the normal deadline lowball and the 40+ is more realistic, or do they overshoot for once?

[charlie Jatinder]

If it does 700K MTC1, that will be like $41-42M.

Target is 650K.

[abracadabra1998]

1 hour ago, Bob Train said:

Hunger Games could be a good comp for It Ends With Us. Maybe DWD and Crawdads too.

Yep, my thoughts exactly. Will add hunger games at T-11 (that started at T-15, so too soon for this update) and DWD at T-7. Don’t have Crawdads sadly

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, Migs20242 said:

 

Nice copy and paste, Deadline! 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[charlie Jatinder]

17 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadpool 3 MiniTC2 T-1 Day

 

Previews - 33797/162772 (812 showings)

 

Comps

Black Panther 2 - $41.6M

Thor 4 - $39M 

GoTG 3 - $38.5M

DSitMoM - $31.5M

 

Sold 6.9K. Great day again. This is the biggest single-day increase not being the first and final day for previews I have tracked. It is also the biggest day of sales for DP3 beating 5.4K on its first day.

 

Should clear 60K+ tomorrow, preferably over 62K+.

 

The above comps are without ATP adjustment. Add 5% over 2022 films, though BP3 probably struck down 10% due to it underindexing here. 

At ~7PM, 52900/169843 (880 showings) $650K+

Should go over 60K I think. Probably 61K. Would come around ~$38M.

[JonathanMB]

6 hours ago, Flip said:

400 theaters less than Knock at the Cabin is disappointing 

 

Knock at the Cabin's theater count was probably inflated by the anemic market at that time, where the only movies that had made over $10M the previous two weekends were Avatar and Puss in Boots. The market is much more crowded right now with Deadpool, Twisters, and two animated juggernauts that theaters are now taking home more money from since they've been out for a bit.

 

Anyway, Deadpool, holy shit. LFG?

[Flip]

On 7/24/2024 at 10:01 PM, Flip said:

Trap (T-8) 3 days of sales

 

8 showtimes/151 tix sold (+62)

 

.69x AQP Day One (T-8) [4.76m]

3.28x The Watchers (T-8) [3.28m]

1.05x Longlegs (T-8) [3.15m]

 

Very good. Just to show how good it’s doing, it sold 50% more in the last day than Inside Out 2 did and more than doubled the equivalent sales for AQP Day One. No way this misses 20m unless reviews are tepid

Trap Previews (T-7) 

 

8 showtimes/165 tix sold (+62)

 

.72x AQP Day One (T-7) [4.89m]

3.37x The Watchers (T-7) [3.37m]

1x Longlegs (T-7) [3m]

 

yet another day where it outsold AQP Day One