The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[lorddemaxus]

47 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

 

No, even the majority of those won't be playing it. The only locations that will play it are ones that had already been holding onto a 70mm print over these years.

 

I don't know how much more I should say. The 70mm prints are part of the problem, in fact. Let's just say that I've heard some higher-ups made a big oopsie that's made a very influential person angry.

Sounds like a colossal fuck up. Sucks to see since I feel like it could’ve been one of the bigger re-releases of the year. Just hoping my theater has held onto the print.

[keysersoze123]

It ends with us MTC1

Early Shows (8/7) - 26830/68108 390395.40 557 shows

Previews(T-3) - 41906/284997 572475.66 2284 shows

Friday - 55578/399418 747370.53 2991 shows

 

Early shows sold 3.7K, Previews around 7.5K and Friday almost 10K since late night yesterday. Its definitely accelerating big time. But low ATP means it will need close to 150K to hit 6m thursday. I am not  sure it gets there. But it should be close. Early shows should be > 1m but under 1.5m. But it did add tons of shows for early shows as well today. 

 

I will post MTC2 in the morning. 

 

 

Edited August 6 by keysersoze123

[Rorschach]

Borderlands (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

4 Thursday showings: 18/540 (3.3% sold)

 

Comp:

Furiosa: $1.13M

 

6 Friday showings: 46/810 (5.7% sold)

 

Comp:

Furiosa: $5.26M

 

Thurs + Fri: 64/1,350 (4.7% sold)

 

Comp:

Furiosa: $5.71M

[Flip]

Beetlejuice 2 Previews First Day (T-31)

 

21 showtimes/93 tix sold

 

1.35x AQP Day One First day [9.18m]
6.64x Alien: Romulus (T-31) [???]

1.83x Trap D1  (T-16) [4.03m]

.17x Deadpool 3 D1  [6.55m]
 

strong first day, but it didn’t sell as well as I thought it would later on in the night and therefore missed the 100 tickets benchmark .

[Rorschach]

Cuckoo (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

2 Thursday showings: 11/134 (8.2% sold)

 

Comps:

Watchers: $846k

Longlegs: $868k

Trap: $1.05M

Avg: $921k

 

6 Friday showings: 6/402 (1.5% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 17/536 (3.2% sold)

 

Comps:

Watchers: $1.97M

Longlegs: $1.7M

Trap: $2.5M

Avg: $2.06M

 

 

Dunno how many theaters this will end up getting, but that Friday average is pretty close to Immaculate's Friday number, which I'm guessing is Neon's goal-post for this.

Edited August 6 by Rorschach

[Flip]

Beetlejuice 2 Friday D1 (T-32)

 

31 showtimes/87 tix sold

 

2.02x Trap Friday D1 [8.94m]
 

trap had a strong start I’m assuming because of the Shymalan fan base. This has a better Thurs-Fri ratio than that which is nice.

Edited August 6 by Flip

[keysersoze123]

Beetlejuice 2 MTC1

Early shows -  3423/87389 75638.75 360 shows

Previews - 15448/698231 296409.21 3535 shows

Friday - 10472/1060005 189303.82 5309 shows

 

Solid day 1 of sales(this is as of 6PM PST). But let us see how the momentum goes for this. its still has a month to go.  I initially thought early shows were even wider but its not playing every where. I would say 2.5m ish at this point(unless they go for 10PM shows as well) for that and previews we have to see where things are closer to release. @Flip may have something going with his post.

[Rorschach]

It Ends With Us (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

3 Thursday showings: 174/255 (68.2% sold)

 

Comp:

DP&W: $4.93M

 

9 Friday showings: 305/693 (44% sold)

 

Comp:

DP&W: $15.95M

 

Thurs + Fri: 479/948 (50.5% sold)

 

Comp:

DP&W: $18.71M

 

 

No good comps for this one. Tried pulling up other recent films and got some wild results, so I'm just defaulting to DP&W just cause. 

[Ryan C]

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

 

T-30

 

Wednesday: 366 Seats Sold (Early Access Showings)

Thursday: 1,036 Seats Sold

= 1,402 Total Seats Sold

 

Taken as of 1:30AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: This is just the first day, but this is not a bad start for a film that is clearly aimed at a younger audience (I'm expecting a lot of big walk-up business with this one as we get closer to the release date). 

 

The thing that shocked me the most though was the fact that I saw so many showtimes (on the level of a Marvel movie) and I saw a few start as late as 11:00PM (one was even at 1:00AM). In a way, I do understand the crazy amount of showtimes already listed for this because it'll be the biggest release theaters would've had since Alien: Romulus, but it's pretty impressive to see this much already. 

 

This isn't an official prediction, but I would not be surprised if this becomes as big as what is still the biggest September opening ever (2017's It). That movie (also distributed by Warner Bros.) was helped by a phenomenal marketing campaign and a cross-generational appeal that got people of all ages to go see it. The only difference is that in Beetlejuice's case, it's not R-rated, which could really boost this one's prospects. 

 

We'll see how this one does in the following weeks, but don't be surprised if we see this be up there as one of the biggest September openings of all-time. 

[Grand Cine]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

It ends with us MTC1

Early Shows (8/7) - 26830/68108 390395.40 557 shows

Previews(T-3) - 41906/284997 572475.66 2284 shows

Friday - 55578/399418 747370.53 2991 shows

 

Early shows sold 3.7K, Previews around 7.5K and Friday almost 10K since late night yesterday. Its definitely accelerating big time. But low ATP means it will need close to 150K to hit 6m thursday. I am not  sure it gets there. But it should be close. Early shows should be > 1m but under 1.5m. But it did add tons of shows for early shows as well today. 

 

I will post MTC2 in the morning. 

 

 

Comparaison with Hunger Games :

 

Previews(T-3) - 50789/413130 942173.67 2227 shows +6314

Friday - 54790/584307 980808.80 3165 shows +8659

 

With 25% adjust with Low ATP, this pace is around 90% of HG for Previews, and it's around 60% of HG at this point . The good thing is HG had meh final days. I expect around 120-130K final depending of walkups so around 5,5M for Thursday and 6,5-7M with EA . It's insane . Other good thing is Friday , pace around between 85-90% of HG and it's around 76% of HG Friday at this point . Also meh final days for HG so i expect around 14M True Friday ( a little better than HG) . Around 45M for OW.

 

@keysersoze123 have you the Saturday numbers just to see if it's really backloaded or not

[vafrow]

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, D1 T-31, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 2

New Sales: NA

Growth: NA

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 23

Tickets per Showtime: 0.1

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 10

New sales: NA

Growth: NA

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/6

Early Evening: 0/8

Late Evening: 2/9

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 0/6

VIP: 2/8

IMAX: 0/6

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps (combined EA and previews)

6.000x Fall Guy for $18.9M

3.000x Twisters for $32.1M

 

Average: $26.5M

 

Don't read much into the comps. I had a few different ways to approach, and ended up picking the one that reflects the best for B². 

 

In general, you're not going to gleam too much insight from my market. It's been much less front loaded than others.and low sample size distorts.

 

But the EA sales were healthy for being a holiday known for people abandoning the city. I wouldn't be surprised if sales jump up a bit today. 

[filmlover]

Borderlands' sales are hilariously pitiful near me, to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't even hit double digits for the weekend.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/5/2024 at 8:29 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Alien Romulus	T-10	Jax	5	38	48	255	6,621	3.85%
		Phx	6	28	56	245	5,645	4.34%
		Ral	8	39	23	166	5,541	3.00%
	Total		19	105	127	666	17,807	3.74%
Borderlands	T-3	Jax	5	30	20	102	4,332	2.35%
		Phx	7	30	38	104	4,755	2.19%
		Ral	8	25	23	71	2,213	3.21%
	Total		20	85	81	277	11,300	2.45%
Cuckoo	T-3	Jax	4	6	8	21	429	4.90%
		Phx	6	12	18	31	1,056	2.94%
		Ral	3	5	3	18	264	6.82%
	Total		13	23	29	70	1,749	4.00%
It Ends With Us	T-3	Jax	5	23	55	356	2,608	13.65%
		Phx	6	34	143	304	4,254	7.15%
		Ral	7	26	138	553	2,084	26.54%
	Total		18	83	336	1,213	8,946	13.56%
It Ends With Us (EA)	T-2	Jax	3	9	169	376	1,155	32.55%
		Phx	3	3	54	168	306	54.90%
		Ral	3	5	84	218	440	49.55%
	Total		9	17	307	762	1,901	40.08%

*All new sales since Friday

 

 

It Ends With Us (EA) T-2 adjusted comps

 - Batman (EA Total) - .384x (1.51m)

 - Top Gun 2 (EA Total) - .451x (2.04m)

 - Twisters (EA) - 1.601x (4.15m)

 - Unsung Hero (EA) - .921x (1.28m)

 - Ungentlemanly (EA) - 2.316x (1.61m)

 - Turtles (EA) - 1.092x (1.91m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (EA) - 2.323x (3.57m)

 

I'm thinking somewhere around 1.75-2m for EA with the lower ATP

 

It Ends With Us (Thu) T-3 adjusted comps

 - Crawdads (Thu) -2.782x (5.7m)

 - Creed III (Thu) - 2.263x (8.26m)

 - Elvis (Thu) - missed

 - Death on the Nile (Thu) - 7.352x (6.79m)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - 2.795x (7.86m)

 

Borderlands T-3 adjusted comps

 - Uncharted - .41x (1.55m)

 - Free Guy - .908x (2.08m)

 - Fall Guy (Total) - .765x (2.41m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .444x (2.09m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Dune - .235x (1.24m)

 - Turtles (Total) - .185x (1.1m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.24x (4.21m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.14x (2.37m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.72m

 

Should be able to reach 2m.  I didn't track Dungeons and Dragons but I think that would be a pretty good comp.  

 

Cuckoo T-3 adjusted comps

 - Men - 1.06x (459k)

 - Candyman - .443x (750k)

 - First Omen - 2.121x (1.29m)

 - Talk to Me - .686x (854k)

 - Abigail - .946x (794k)

 - The Strangers - .574x (578k)

 

Alien Romulus T-10 adjusted comps

 - Scream VI - .911x (5.5m)

 - Nope - 1.57x (10.29m)

 - Halloween Ends - 1.897x (10.49m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Alien Romulus	T-9	Jax	5	38	24	279	6,621	4.21%
		Phx	6	28	25	270	5,645	4.78%
		Ral	8	39	1	167	5,541	3.01%
	Total		19	105	50	716	17,807	4.02%
Borderlands	T-2	Jax	5	30	16	118	4,332	2.72%
		Phx	7	30	11	115	4,776	2.41%
		Ral	8	25	3	74	2,213	3.34%
	Total		20	85	30	307	11,321	2.71%
Cuckoo	T-2	Jax	4	6	5	26	429	6.06%
		Phx	6	12	12	43	1,056	4.07%
		Ral	4	8	9	27	536	5.04%
	Total		14	26	26	96	2,021	4.75%
It Ends With Us	T-2	Jax	5	23	37	393	2,608	15.07%
		Phx	6	36	75	379	4,424	8.57%
		Ral	7	32	120	673	2,446	27.51%
	Total		18	91	232	1,445	9,478	15.25%
It Ends With Us (EA)	T-1	Jax	3	9	102	478	1,155	41.39%
		Phx	3	3	25	193	306	63.07%
		Ral	3	6	68	286	511	55.97%
	Total		9	18	195	957	1,972	48.53%

 

It Ends With Us (EA) T-1 adjusted comps

 - Batman (EA Total) - .457x (1.79m)

 - Top Gun 2 (EA Total) - .529x (2.39m)

 - Twisters (EA) - 1.647x (4.27m)

 - Unsung Hero (EA) - 1.156x (1.61m)

 - Ungentlemanly (EA) - 2.42x (1.69m)

 - Turtles (EA) - 1.2x (2.1m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (EA) - 2.63x (4.038m)

 

Bumping this up to 2m for EA.  Still adding shows as they get close to filling up.  In my US sample it's added 300 EA shows since Friday (30% increase).  This includes a few XD shows including two in a Jacksonville theater I track which have sold 137 tickets since those were added over the weekend.  This looks really MTC2 heavy for some reason @keysersoze123

 

It Ends With Us (Thu) T-2 adjusted comps

 - Crawdads (Thu) -2.544x (5.21m)

 - Creed III (Thu) - 2.29x (8.37m)

 - Elvis (Thu) - 1.945x (5.35m)

 - Death on the Nile (Thu) - 7.08x (6.54m)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - 2.752x (7.74m)

 

My areas are looking like around 6m true previews + 2m EA.  We'll see if it slows down over the next couple of days.

 

Borderlands T-2 adjusted comps

 - Uncharted - .395x (1.49m)

 - Free Guy - .875x (2m)

 - Fall Guy (Total) - .759x (2.39m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .392x (1.85m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Dune - .204x (1.08m)

 - Turtles (Total) - .196x (1.17m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.03x (3.48m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .95x (1.98m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.56m

 

Starting to doubt the 2m...

 

Cuckoo T-2 adjusted comps

 - Men - 1.02x (442k)

 - Candyman - .471x (796k)

 - First Omen - 1.846x (1.12m)

 - Talk to Me - .696x (866k)

 - Abigail - 1.043x (876k)

 - The Strangers - .644x (649k)

 

Size adjusted average - 784k

 

Alien Romulus T-9 adjusted comps

 - Scream VI - .953x (5.76m)

 - Nope - 1.52x (9.96m)

 - Halloween Ends - 1.855x (10.25m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Beetlejuice	T-30	Jax	5	82	112	112	13,830	0.81%
		Phx	5	50	91	91	10,289	0.88%
		Ral	8	55	108	108	7,217	1.50%
	Total		17	187	311	311	31,336	0.99%
Beetlejuice (EA)	T-29	Jax	5	10	33	33	2,007	1.64%
		Phx	1	2	7	7	618	1.13%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	0	0%
	Total		7	13	40	40	2,625	1.52%

 

Day 1 (Combined) adjusted comps

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - 1.506x (6.63m)

 - Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - 1.704x (7.5m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .934x (8.42m)

 - Turtles (Total) - 1.166x (6.92m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - .337x (6.66m)

[crazymoviekid]

Any feelers on National Cinema Day?  I know they announce it very close to the day, but we could usually hear some rumors?  Would they be going for Sunday Aug. 25th this year?

[titanic2187]

3 minutes ago, crazymoviekid said:

Any feelers on National Cinema Day?  I know they announce it very close to the day, but we could usually hear some rumors?  Would they be going for Sunday Aug. 25th this year?

I got a feeling they would go for Labour Day weekend this year because the last weekend of August this year has Alien in its second weekend, which could be too big for a discount day and dilute its benefit.

[Grand Cine]

5 minutes ago, crazymoviekid said:

Any feelers on National Cinema Day?  I know they announce it very close to the day, but we could usually hear some rumors?  Would they be going for Sunday Aug. 25th this year?

Isn't it on September 7th ? , I asked this question weeks ago , and anyone said that

[emoviefan]

7 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

Isn't it on September 7th ? , I asked this question weeks ago , and anyone said that

Do not think WB would be okay with that being Beetlejuice OW.  I would be shocked if that was the case.

[crazymoviekid]

16 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

Isn't it on September 7th ? , I asked this question weeks ago , and anyone said that

I mean fine by me, but it's gonna be an issue for all the tickets already bought for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice that day.

[Grand Cine]

I saw that last year , the event was announced the monday for the next sunday so clearly don't expect any annoncement soon