Weekend Thread (8/11-13) | Demeter 750K Previews

[CJohn]

3 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Lmfao, 111k? That's batshit crazy lol. I had forgotten that the Conjuring franchise is massive here. But I'd be surprised if Nun 2 hits anywhere close to 1. Maybe 55-60k tickets (would still be the biggest since Barbenheimer, but 50% off from the first one).

 

I'm expecting 20k from Filme do Caraças, though I have no pre-sales data so I'm guessing blindly lol. Don't know how the other Equalizers and Murder on the Orient Express + Death on the Nile did, so yeah.

Even if The Nun II opens to half of The Nun it is still the 2nd biggest OW of The Conjuring Universe here. 

 

Equalizer sold ~103.000 tickets while the sequel fell to ~85.000 tickets sold. If the new one plays like the 2nd movie I am OK with it.

 

Murder sold like ~160.000 tickets here, it was a huge hit. Death on the Nile opened while there were still some COVID fears and the cast is way weaker than the first one, and it ended at around half of the tickets sold in total of the first one. I am actually expecting Haunting in Venice to see another decrease.

 

Pre-sales are low/non-existant for both Um Filme do Caraças and Blue Beetle. Not concerning as we aren't a pre-sales based market but if shows are still empty by Wednesday night it is time to start getting worried (spoiler: they will still be empty).

[CoolioD1]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

I think there's a little bit of revisionist history going on with Shazam after Shazam 2 came out and was an outright flop. Because Shazam 1 was pretty universally acclaimed when it first came out. Say what you will about how generic the sequel was, but the first had heart, humor, and a solid story that you don't often see handled as effectively as many CBMs today. Honestly, I think Sandberg really has the directing chops for big-budget fare. Just get him away from DC for a bit.

Disney Channel superhero movie about a boy who becomes a super powered Jimmy Fallon was pretty much my read on Shazam 1.0 back in 2019.

[MovieMan89]

I think being between family fare and standard cbm fare is a more accurate description of Shazam 1 and maybe part of why it doesn’t work very well imo. Kind of a limited audience appeal… 

[electride]

Deadline sources report that Paramount's work on TMNT has pulled in $1B in global sales in 2023 alone.

https://deadline.com/2023/08/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-retail-sales-1235519233/

 

Quote

Since 2012 and not including 2023, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles global merchandise sales have amassed $8 billion, per industry sources. This was accomplished during Paramount’s ownership of the TMNT IP that they it acquired in 2009.

Paramount transitioned the Turtles business from predominantly collectors to mass retail, and natch, the latest reboot has catapulted demand from TMNT fans and partners alike. In the U.S. and Canada alone, industry projections think Mutant Mayhem, a co-production with Nickelodeon and Seth Rogen’s Point Grey, could exceed $110M. 

Paramount Consumer Products’ Turtles theatrical program was its most ambitious yet, counting north of 400 licensees for the film and 1,100 total for the franchise. 

 

Edited August 14, 2023 by electride

[Dragoncaine]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

It’s not even about my opinion though here. If audiences felt at all like critics about it, it would have been literally impossible for 2 to bomb so spectacularly out of the gate. It is baffling 1 is ahead of most cbms ever made on RT. Though tbf, the mentioned anti-Snyder effect could make sense. 

 

And what’s this “kids movie” thing about? It was PG-13 and marketed to the same audience as your average cbm. Also, any critic worth anything doesn’t give a movie good reviews just because it targets kids. 

Movie had an A CS and achieved a 2.6x DOM multiplier despite being sandwiched between Captain Marvel and Endgame?

[ChipDerby]

17 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

Disney Channel superhero movie about a boy who becomes a super powered Jimmy Fallon was pretty much my read on Shazam 1.0 back in 2019.

 

Wow you're edgy

[misterpepp]

Shazam was very well-liked, I just don't think there was much interest in a sequel. The first movie kinda did everything there was to be done with the concept of the character, the second didn't really have a fresh or marketable hook to it.

[Arlborn]

7 minutes ago, datpepper said:

the second didn't really have a fresh or marketable hook to it.

I think this was its biggest problem. People were already wary of DCU movies, the first one was well-liked but not loved or anything. This one needed a strong hook and yet there was nothing to be found.

 

I wonder if they wanted Black Adam to be its hook once upon a time

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

I’ll always be curious to see what it would have been like if Flash and Aquaman released last year like WB intended, particularly since those would have been released around the time Gunn and Safran took over and would have likely kept the original Keaton/Supergirl set up at that point. Would the holiday season have helped those movies, particularly Flash? Or would they just still get overshadowed by Wakanda Forever and Avatar?

[filmlover]

Just now, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

I’ll always be curious to see what it would have been like if Flash and Aquaman released last year like WB intended, particularly since those would have been released around the time Gunn and Safran took over and would have likely kept the original Keaton/Supergirl set up at that point. Would the holiday season have helped those movies, particularly Flash? Or would they just still get overshadowed by Wakanda Forever and Avatar?

The Flash was clearly doomed after Ezra's controversies gave it marketing hurdles too big to overcome. Being a meh movie ( those "best superhero movie ever!" test screening reports) did it no favors either.

[DAJK]

Not that this is ever a healthy thing to spend a ton of time thinking about, but I often like to predict what I think a lot of the movies that actually did release in 2020 WOULD have grossed had they not dealt with the pandemic (either COVID never happened or they delayed a few years). 

 

WW84 - the movie isn't good, but I don't think the reception was utterly toxic right out the gate (like something like Morbius). There was a decent amount of hype, and I don't think a lot of the toxic WOM would have settled in until the movie had been out for a little bit. Would have been received with a shrug, and grossed something like 130/350. Probably around 400 OS as well.

 

Tenet - the fact that this did as well as it did during the pandemic makes me think it would have been a pretty sizeable hit in a regular year (especially OS). Yes, I know that the fact that it was "the only blockbuster for months" helped increase the attention that it got, but a nearly 60M domestic gross and especially 300M OS is impressive. Summer 2020 was relatively "normal" compared to Spring/Fall 2020 so it likely grossed a bit higher than it would have had it released in those months. But I'd argue that it could have done Inception numbers domestic, around 500-600 OS as well. 

 

New Mutants  - I 100% think this would have grossed Morbius numbers had it released in 2018. 

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

2 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

The first Shazam remains one of the best DCEU movies (not that that means much). It is actually baffling how hard Sandberg dropped the ball on the second one. It's not like he's a great filmmaker, but he's decent enough and had three wins prior to Fury of the Gods.

Not sure why Shazam even needed a sequel. 

[toutvabien]

27 minutes ago, DAJK said:

WW84 - the movie isn't good, but I don't think the reception was utterly toxic right out the gate (like something like Morbius). There was a decent amount of hype, and I don't think a lot of the toxic WOM would have settled in until the movie had been out for a little bit. Would have been received with a shrug, and grossed something like 130/350. Probably around 400 OS as well.

I think WW84 could have challenged the WB/DC opening weekend records. I don't remember what the schedule for 2020 was supposed to be before COVID, but yea, it would not be leggy, WoM would still be really mixed.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

29 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Not that this is ever a healthy thing to spend a ton of time thinking about, but I often like to predict what I think a lot of the movies that actually did release in 2020 WOULD have grossed had they not dealt with the pandemic (either COVID never happened or they delayed a few years). 

 

WW84 - the movie isn't good, but I don't think the reception was utterly toxic right out the gate (like something like Morbius). There was a decent amount of hype, and I don't think a lot of the toxic WOM would have settled in until the movie had been out for a little bit. Would have been received with a shrug, and grossed something like 130/350. Probably around 400 OS as well.

 

Tenet - the fact that this did as well as it did during the pandemic makes me think it would have been a pretty sizeable hit in a regular year (especially OS). Yes, I know that the fact that it was "the only blockbuster for months" helped increase the attention that it got, but a nearly 60M domestic gross and especially 300M OS is impressive. Summer 2020 was relatively "normal" compared to Spring/Fall 2020 so it likely grossed a bit higher than it would have had it released in those months. But I'd argue that it could have done Inception numbers domestic, around 500-600 OS as well. 

 

New Mutants  - I 100% think this would have grossed Morbius numbers had it released in 2018. 

 

WW84 would have had a big opening weekend but collapsed afterwards due to WOM, especially when Top Gun Maverick was supposed to come out just three weeks after in their initial release dates.

 

Tenet I think would have done around 500-600M world wide.

 

Agree with you on New Mutants.

[ringedmortality]

1 hour ago, ChipDerby said:

 

Wow you're edgy

Coolio’s the best guy around. Like one of the few people who’s actually into movies.

[Eric is Quiet]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

Coolio’s the best guy around. Like one of the few people who’s actually into movies.

I thought he died.

[TalismanRing]

I will never understand why they hired a 14 yr old to play 10yr old Billy then had or allowed Levi to play Shazam like he was 7.

 

 

[Claire of Themyscira]

3 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

Disney Channel superhero movie about a boy who becomes a super powered Jimmy Fallon was pretty much my read on Shazam 1.0 back in 2019.

You're such a nasty man...

[Claire of Themyscira]

I hope Zachary Levi suffers though. ❤️

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

18 minutes ago, Claire of Themyscira said:

I hope Zachary Levi suffers though. ❤️

I don’t like Levi, but really?