Weekend Thread (8/11-13) | Demeter 750K Previews

[vale9001]

14 minutes ago, M37 said:

How so? A -36% drop on what was essentially an open weekend is … fine? 

 

If it were to hold that rate through rest of run, wound net another ~$240M more, for a total of ~$635. Fair to take the over on that straight extrapolation, but not sure how that translates to >$650M being >50% probability 

 

cause next weeks will drop less than 36%

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

And to repeat what I said upthread: Super Pets dropped 52% in weekend 2 and still managed to leg out to nearly 3x OWeek (over 4x OW), which would put TMNT into $150M range. I don’t think it goes that high, but $120/$130M or so is easily in reach despite a “not that great of a drop”

It’s doing just fine. Very reasonable budget of $70M. 

[LonePirate]

Oppenheimer is now $6M from passing Sing for #1 on the all-time never #1 list. If The Theeequalizer wasn’t opening over Labor Day weekend, I’d say it would have had a very slim chance to overtake Barbie that weekend. Otherwise, it’s never going to have a #1 weekend barring an exceptionally long SAG/WGA strike coupled with a resurgence due to a massive showing during awards season.

[vale9001]

also warner will make everything to make Barbie run the longest... there is nothing like that for this audience for months...probably sing- along versions, new "group experience" screenings, finally some imax showing at least in big cities (?). They will try to push the second viewing cause it's the kinda of movie can have that. 

Edited August 13, 2023 by vale9001

[YM!]

Don’t get the doom and gloom for Mutant Mayhem especially when EA burnt off a lot of demand OW. It’s still a great hold in general. It’s likely to outgross Out of The Shadows and has a good chance at beating the one in the 1990s for second biggest Ninja Turtles movie. This is no Smurfs: The Lost Village. It’s looking likely for 130-150m (maybe even more) domestically and should do over 300m WW on a 70m budget. Very good chance for like Elemental for it to be the first summer animations in twenty years to do a 5x in summer provided it follows Super Pets. 
 

I can literally count on my hand using my fingers the amount of 100m grossing Nickelodeon movies these past 13 years (Airbender, Rango, Ninja Turtles and SpongeBob 2). It’ll be the most successful Paramount animation since SpongeBob 2, think Paramount is more than happy. If the sequel is great, should have a nice jump. Elemental spoiled us for weekend holds lol

[Austin]

4 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Pointed out in the overseas thread. 🙂

Ye i gotchu over there, but not everyone is on that thread.

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited August 13, 2023 by kayumanggi

[Austin]

@kayumanggi or anybody who knows, what site or reporter for box office is the most accurate to what the actual gross is, since multiple sources differ especially for INT numbers and WW gross. I get exchange rates can be tricky, i just didnt know if there is some objective source when reporting those numbers.

[M37]

Just now, grim22 said:

Because drops level off and become smaller through the run, and there's labor day coming up where the drop will be almost nothing. 650M+ is pretty much locked. 

Level off yes, become smaller … it depends, because attrition of screen and shows can be a limiting factor depending on competition. And this was a weekend where there was virtually no new competition or screen loss. Really can’t ask for a better holding set-up and again -36% is … fine 

 

A trajectory identical to Dark Knight from here, which made 2x more off its 4th (8/8-14) weekend, would get you to a (very interesting) total of ~$654M

 

The big question to me is what happens to those atypically high weekdays: do they stay higher into fall and give Barbie a leg up, or drop off more to a “normal” level and so keep overall total down 

[MightyDargon]

Mutant Mayhem did well IMO. This week will likely be it's sharpest decline for a while and even that was less than 50 percent.

(although I remember people on here bitching about Spiderverse legs as well, so I think people here just think ANY animation has to have 20 perceent drops or something)

[Jonwo]

15 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

GT is very doomed when it's released domestically. 

[Jonwo]

19 minutes ago, YM! said:

Don’t get the doom and gloom for Mutant Mayhem especially when EA burnt off a lot of demand OW. It’s still a great hold in general. It’s likely to outgross Out of The Shadows and has a good chance at beating the one in the 1990s for second biggest Ninja Turtles movie. This is no Smurfs: The Lost Village. It’s looking likely for 130-150m (maybe even more) domestically and should do over 300m WW on a 70m budget. Very good chance for like Elemental for it to be the first summer animations in twenty years to do a 5x in summer provided it follows Super Pets. 
 

I can literally count on my hand using my fingers the amount of 100m grossing Nickelodeon movies these past 13 years (Airbender, Rango, Ninja Turtles and SpongeBob 2). It’ll be the most successful Paramount animation since SpongeBob 2, think Paramount is more than happy. If the sequel is great, should have a nice jump. Elemental spoiled us for weekend holds lol

The important thing for Paramount is that it revived TMNT as a franchise for them both on film and TV. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[MikeQ]

Only four weekends in for Barbie and Oppenheimer, and both are already among the leggiest films with $70M+ openings. With a pretty clear landscape for them moving forward, and Labour Day weekend to come, I'm excited to see where they will land.

 

Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films (Friday Openers):

1. Avatar (2009) — 77.0 million (9.73)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (2022) — 126.7 million (5.67)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) — 134.1 million (5.10)
4. Finding Nemo (2003) — 70.3 million (4.84)
5. Zootopia (2016) — 75.1 million (4.55)
6. Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00)
7. Inside Out (2015) — 90.4 million (3.94)
8. American Sniper (2015) — 89.3 million (3.92)
9. Aladdin (2019) — 91.5 million (3.89)
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — 248.0 million (3.78)
11. Toy Story 3 (2010) — 110.3 million (3.76)
12. The Incredibles (2004) — 70.5 million (3.71)
13. Frozen II (2019) — 130.3 million (3.66)
14. Despicable Me 3 (2017) — 72.4 million (3.65)
15. Finding Dory (2016) — 135.1 million (3.60)
16. Toy Story 4 (2019) — 120.9 million (3.59)
17. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) — 84.6 million (3.58)
18. The Secret Life of Pets (2016) — 104.4 million (3.53)
19. The Jungle Book (2016) — 103.3 million (3.53)
20. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53)
21. Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone (2001) — 90.3 million (3.52)
22. Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (3.52)
23. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (2013) — 73.6 million (3.51)
24. Joker (2019) — 96.2 million (3.49)
25. Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (3.47)
26. Minions: The Rise of Gru (2022) — 107.0 million (3.45)
27. Skyfall (2012) — 88.4 million (3.44)
28. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016) — 155.1 million (3.43)
29. Star Trek (2009) — 75.2 million (3.43)
30. The Dark Knight (2008) — 158.4 million (3.38)
31. Shrek Forever After (2010) — 70.8 million (3.37)
32. Incredibles 2 (2018) — 182.7 million (3.33)
33. I Am Legend (2007) — 77.2 million (3.32)
34. Monsters University (2013) — 82.4 million (3.26)
35. Star Trek Into Darkness (2013) — 70.2 million (3.26)
36. Barbie (2023) — 162.0 million (3.25)^
37. Iron Man (2008) — 98.6 million (3.23)
38. Oppenheimer (2023) — 82.5 million (3.21)^

^ Run not yet complete

 

Peace,

Mike

[AniNate]

44 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

It’s not that great of a drop when you factor in the Wednesday opening day. I take the average of the 5-day opening and the opening Friday/Saturday/Sunday total to get a decent idea of a Wednesday movie with a Friday opening. In this case it would be $35M for opening weekend and a drop of around 55% on the 2nd weekend. 

 

The opening week is skewed because of those preview screenings, they had two on the Friday and Monday before the official "release" that they added to the opening Friday number, some pretty ridiculous accounting. I was prematurely down on it myself due to the initial estimates, but taking out the previews added to the Friday, it's honestly not super far off from Elemental's first weekend hold.  

 

 

Edited August 13, 2023 by AniNate

[kayumanggi]

26 minutes ago, Austin said:

@kayumanggi or anybody who knows, what site or reporter for box office is the most accurate to what the actual gross is, since multiple sources differ especially for INT numbers and WW gross. I get exchange rates can be tricky, i just didnt know if there is some objective source when reporting those numbers.

 

I always go by what BOM reports because they are studio numbers. Some accounts on Twitter like boxofficereport or even Luiz report "updated" numbers for big films and big weekends, but that's not consistent during the latter part of a movie's run. Deadline does overseas updates as well before the weekend, but they are mostly for the big movies 

 

BOM can be late at updating, though. Sometimes it takes a couple of days before totals are updated. But just like what I said, I always go by their numbers. It's the best one for me since figures are presented in tables that you can also sort out.

 

Studios are also sometimes late to give updates for certain territories. Like, local sources already have numbers, but BOM or The Numbers don't have them yet. I actually don't know their processes. Like is it an automatic thing for studios to send numbers to sites like BOM or does BOM constantly needs to ask for the figures, because there are certain movie titles that have incomplete overseas numbers.

Edited August 13, 2023 by kayumanggi

[filmlover]

Will Gran Turismo even pull a double digits opening in two weeks?

[efialtes76]

35 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Oppenheimer is now $6M from passing Sing for #1 on the all-time never #1 list. If The Theeequalizer wasn’t opening over Labor Day weekend, I’d say it would have had a very slim chance to overtake Barbie that weekend. Otherwise, it’s never going to have a #1 weekend barring an exceptionally long SAG/WGA strike coupled with a resurgence due to a massive showing during awards season.

Blue Beettle will make at least 10M+ than Oppenheimer next weekend.

And Gran Turismo even more one week later.

 

[vale9001]

6 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

Only four weekends in for Barbie and Oppenheimer, and both are already among the leggiest films with $70M+ openings. With a pretty clear landscape for them moving forward, and Labour Day weekend to come, I'm excited to see where they will land.

 

Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films (Friday Openers):

^ Run not yet complete

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

Thank you. Barbie is 6th for 150M+ openers. Before the next weekend should already beat The incredible 2 for #5. 

[efialtes76]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Will Gran Turismo even pull a double digits opening in two weeks?

Of course.