It’s Me. Hi. I’m The Eras Tour Weekend Thread | 39M Friday

[Shawn Robbins]

Hearing $41m.

 

Not my number, just passing along from a fairly reputable source. (No idea if it's the same as Deadline's.)

[Giorno]

Just now, Shawn said:

Hearing $41m.

 

Not my number, just passing along from a reputable source. (No idea if it's the same as Deadline's.)

That includes previews?

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Hearing $41m.

 

Not my number, just passing along from a fairly reputable source. (No idea if it's the same as Deadline's.)

 

Sacramento projections:

 

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Giorno said:

That includes previews?

Always includes thursday previews. 

[TalismanRing]

57 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Who had The Exorcist: Believer potentially (it’s deadline) dropping under 60%, never mind 70%? Not me! 

 

Not me.  But then I forgot what Friday the 13th does to horror at the B.O.

[M37]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Lemme ask you something then, @M37.  If I don't want to put a thumb on the scale and Just Report The Numbers, what ATP percentage adj would you use for Sacramento?

 

145%?

150%?

155%?

 

More?  Coz I'd rather Sacramento be an outlier, but report what it reports than try to massage it.  But I still think the ATP percentage is the wildest of the wildcards here.

 

Similarly, just use a flat Thr preview/Fri comp and damn the difference in PLF share as something of a gauge?

I think ... you're asking the wrong question 😉 The Thursday shows for your sample had a PSM of $2753.  That was 49% higher than Barbie (an underindex at $1846), but 60-65% higher than the MCU standard of ~$1650-$1700 for this market. Almost certainly the +45% is too low, I'd probably split the difference at +55%

 

Or because of the unique nature of this release - and that we atypically have a day of data already in hand - just throw out the comps entirely and use the $2753 PSM value directly (or some comparable range from that value). You're still going to wind up around or just below $30M though most likely, but again I don't think Thur & Fri will be necessarily identical, the latter spreading more broadly and driving the PSM (overall gross relative to Sacto sales) up even higher

[Shawn Robbins]

3 minutes ago, Giorno said:

That includes previews?

I'm assuming so for the moment.

[XXR & Friends]

@Porthos once we got the previews number, did you adjust to account for that ATP against your comps? If not, what would your Friday comps look like?

[Bob Train]

2 hours ago, Jonwo said:

God is mentioned a few times..

That does not make it a faith-based movie. God is also mentioned in Avengers (2012), which is not a faith-based movie.

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

I think ... you're asking the wrong question 😉 The Thursday shows for your sample had a PSM of $2753.  That was 49% higher than Barbie (an underindex at $1846), but 60-65% higher than the MCU standard of ~$1650-$1700 for this market. Almost certainly the +45% is too low, I'd probably split the difference at +55%

 

Or because of the unique nature of this release - and that we atypically have a day of data already in hand - just throw out the comps entirely and use the $2753 PSM value directly (or some comparable range from that value). You're still going to wind up around or just below $30M though most likely, but again I don't think Thur & Fri will be necessarily identical, the latter spreading more broadly and driving the PSM (overall gross relative to Sacto sales) up even higher

I think it varies based on the MTC or MiniTC. MTC1 will have the smaller premium while some MiniTC in say red belt will have the highest premium. In regards to Sacramento, there is no MTC1, so I am expecting it to be 50%+. 

[Porthos]

30 minutes ago, M37 said:

I think ... you're asking the wrong question 😉 The Thursday shows for your sample had a PSM of $2753.  That was 49% higher than Barbie (an underindex at $1846), but 60-65% higher than the MCU standard of ~$1650-$1700 for this market. Almost certainly the +45% is too low, I'd probably split the difference at +55%

 

Or because of the unique nature of this release - and that we atypically have a day of data already in hand - just throw out the comps entirely and use the $2753 PSM value directly (or some comparable range from that value). You're still going to wind up around or just below $30M though most likely, but again I don't think Thur & Fri will be necessarily identical, the latter spreading more broadly and driving the PSM (overall gross relative to Sacto sales) up even higher

 

 

*searches forum for "PSM"*

 

Ah.  Pre Sale Multiplier.   So just use the $2.8m figure directly? (2800k/1017) and junk everything else?  Can work with that.

 

Gonna wear a Cone of Shame regardless, but what can one do when one doesn't have any AMCs within 60 miles of a market?

Edited October 13, 2023 by Porthos
Cone not bag (though there is a bag on head meme that I'm trying to remember right now)

[Bob Train]

1 hour ago, Eric Feels 22 said:

 

Friday the 13th gonna Friday the 13th, but that's insane for Exorcist considering how awful reception is. To be fair, I guess it is the only horror option for many, so that does help it for a day like this. Even I was kind of tempted until I realized I knew better.

Both Exorcist and Nun 2 were predicted to drop 70%+ in their second weekend, but, assuming Deadline is remotely accurate, both ended with drops in the 55-60% range. Perhaps horror is more backloaded now?

 

Also kinda proves Taylor Swift is bringing in atypical audience that doesn't go see many other movies.

[Shawn Robbins]

What a time to be alive when everything between $25-50m is on the table after a film has already opened.

 

First one through the wall always gets bloody, though. At least this will give us a good baseline for Bey and future specialty fan-based mega releases... though I'm not sure anyone will match Taylor pound for pound anytime soon. 

[Porthos]

Just now, Shawn said:

What a time to be alive when everything between $25-50m is on the table after a film has already opened.

 

First one through the wall always gets bloody, though. At least this will give us a good baseline for Bey and future specialty fan-based mega releases... though I'm not sure anyone will match Taylor pound for pound anytime soon. 

 

For the record, Shawn, I have to retract 25m as being remotely on the table as I can't possibly see how that's even plausible with all of the other data. I have to presume COMSCORE data is coming in which is blowing Sacramento out of the friggin' water right now.

[Eric is Quiet]

11 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

That does not make it a faith-based movie. God is also mentioned in Avengers (2012), which is not a faith-based movie.

 

[joselowe]

Im in Bogota, bought tickets for tomorrow show at my favorite theater and the first show was sold out so I had to go to the second which barely had any seats left. Very shocking for this in a South American country! But Taylor is likely going to do Barbie numbers with this!

 

excited for my showing tonight!

[PlatnumRoyce]

4 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Also kinda proves Taylor Swift is bringing in atypical audience that doesn't go see many other movies.

According to movio's behind the screens podcast, presales brought in 

* 41% infrequent moviegoers (9% above average)

* 43% groups 3+ (versus 36% overall)

 

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

For the record, Shawn, I have to retract 25m as being remotely on the table as I can't possibly see how that's even plausible with all of the other data. I have to presume COMSCORE data is coming in which is blowing Sacramento out of the friggin' water right now.

Movio's presale data last weekend showed the south overindexing by a couple of points at the expense of west/midwest but with a larger overindexing for rural audiences (6 points above baseline index) at expense of cities. Could that be impacting presale tracking? (31% rural, 35% south)

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Shawn said:

What a time to be alive when everything between $25-50m is on the table after a film has already opened.

 

First one through the wall always gets bloody, though. At least this will give us a good baseline for Bey and future specialty fan-based mega releases... though I'm not sure anyone will match Taylor pound for pound anytime soon. 

 

Ironically the last minute Thursday previews might end up being exceedingly useful here after all.  Though through... being 'fortuitous' as @M37 would put it in where various effects cancelled each other out.

 

Like, right now, Queen Bey Thur preview showings are at around 53% of TET's Thur final reported numbers at stop of tracking locally.

 

When all is said and done using the Thur TET number for Renaissance's Thur might be a fairly apple to apple comparison even though Bey's film will indeed have a higher ATP which will be needed to accounted for.

[Giorno]

9 minutes ago, joselowe said:

Im in Bogota, bought tickets for tomorrow show at my favorite theater and the first show was sold out so I had to go to the second which barely had any seats left. Very shocking for this in a South American country! But Taylor is likely going to do Barbie numbers with this!

 

excited for my showing tonight!

Barbie numbers?

 

Taylor's Friday is gonna be in the 40s while barbies was 70 and eras might drop on Saturday

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, Giorno said:

Barbie numbers?

 

Taylor's Friday is gonna be in the 40s while barbies was 70 and eras might drop on Saturday

joselowe is probably talking about Colombian BO.