It’s Me. Hi. I’m The Eras Tour Weekend Thread | 39M Friday

[TalismanRing]

25 minutes ago, Eric Feels 22 said:

Last I checked, the Tracking Thread has the film gunning for 30M+. Also Wolf of Wall Street's 18M is wonky to use as a comparison when it opened on a Wednesday and during Christmas, when things are more deflated. In an October release date or something, it too would have likely gunned for 30M+.

 

Yes and in the midst of that Leo movies opened to  Great Gatsby: $50m, Revenant $40m & OUAT: $40m  Only Gatsby had any significant prior name/IP recognition.    Granted KOTFM is 206m but none of these were short films - all clocking in around 160m

 

Ticket prices have also gone up 20%+ just in the last 4 years so even with say 20-25% fewer show times that his previous films and less interest $30m+ doesn't seem out of hand.

[jeffthehat]

50 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT8robmeh/
 

If anyone attends this movie and they are not expecting it to be a standing up, full-throated sing-along concert experience, then they are in for a big surprise.

 

Been wondering if Sat/Sun sales would bounce once these TikToks started coming out. 

[Cmasterclay]

All the fans who thought they had opening night tickets got Swiftboated.

 

(There's like three posters old enough here left to get this joke)

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, Dephira said:

How is this a fudge when literally every movie debut now plays the entirety of Thursday (and often even earlier), and these Thursday evening shows were just announced at the very last minute? 

 

Does anyone even remember the last time there was a wide movie for which Thursday "previews" only started at 6pm?

With non-refundable tickets? Yeah, not sure if fudge is the right word since tickets sold are tickets sold, but it's an obvious attempt to juice up the numbers by forcing die-hards to double dip.

 

I am aware certain theaters allowed people to switch seats (probably caving in under the big amount of requests), but it's still pretty shitty and clearly last minute in an attempt to push the film over the line (be it the october record or 100M, not really sure if it gets over either one anyway though).

[CJohn]

Previews were announced too late and it was kinda nonsense tbh.

[LonePirate]

The Regal IMAX near me has a 7:30 showing tonight which has been on sale for weeks and is north of 95% full. They added a 3:15pm IMAX showing back on Wednesday and it has sold a whopping 6 tickets so far.

[Porthos]

LOL DEADLINE

 

....

 

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area PREMIERE NIGHT

(Thr Prev) Seat Report:  PREMIERE (THR PREV) FINAL REPORT [5:10pm-5:35pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	18105	19122	1017	5.32%

 

Total Showings Removed Since Mid-Day	1
Total Seats Removed Since Last Mid-Day	58
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	215

 

TET Thru (Mid-Day) = 0.10932x TET Fri (T-2) [????m] (1017/9303)

---

T-0 FINAL: 

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [3:00-4:30]	3.61		1758	28183		4/395	15229/43412	64.92%		28183	3.61%		1.80m	2.62m
MoM [3:30-4:35]	4.82		1656	21117		0/409	25412/46529	45.38%		21117	4.82%		1.73m	2.51m
Thor4 [3:45-4:35]	6.00		2056	16962		0/320	23111/40073	42.33%		16962	6.00%		1.74m	2.52m
BP2 [3:45-4:35]	6.05		2053	16800		2/376	26426/43216	38.87%		16800	6.05%		1.70m	2.46m
AM3 [3:45-4:30]	9.71		1083	10475		0/307	26899/37374	28.03%		10475	9.71%		1.70m	2.46m
GOTG [3:45-4:30]	9.46		1551	10750		0/347	31169/41919	25.64%		10750	9.46%		1.66m	2.40m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

YET MORE T-0 FINAL Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
Bats [3:00-4:30]	8.65		1279	11757		1/328	27144/38901	30.22%		11757	8.65%		1.87m	2.71m
JWD [3:45-4:35]	9.27		1476	10966		0/290	22873/33839	32.41%		10966	9.27%		1.67m	2.42m
BA [3:50-4:30]	22.63		874	4494		0/250	27184/31678	14.19%		4494	22.63%		1.72m	2.49m
Ava2 [3:50-4:25]	11.32		1079	8986		0/310	26049/35035	25.65%		8986	11.32%		1.92m	2.79m
Shaz2 [3:55-4:15]	61.15		417	1663		0/166	21658/23321	7.13%		1663	61.15%		2.08m	3.01m
TLM [3:50-4:15]	15.50		958	6561		0/235	23202/29763	22.04%		6561	15.50%		1.60m	2.32m
AtSV [3:50-4:20]	10.44		1676	9744		0/266	22261/32005	30.45%		9744	10.44%		1.81m	2.63m
RotB [3:50-4:15]	20.45		1054	4973		0/202	20839/25812	19.27%		4973	20.45%		1.80m	2.61m
Barb [3:50-4:30]	8.42		1494	12077		4/274	17904/29981	40.28%		12077	8.42%		1.88m	2.72m
Oppy[4:30-4:40]	22.01		547	4621		2/80	6238/10859	42.55%		4621	22.01%		2.31m	3.35m
Barbn[3:50-4:40]	6.09		2041	16698		6/354	24142/40840	40.89%		16698	6.09%		2.00m	2.90m

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     197/5770  [3.41% sold]

 

===

 

Alright, there is *NO WAY* to sugar coat this.  There are waaaaaaaaaaaay too many showtimes.  Some of them have a handful of tickets sold, but there are a ton of zed sales out there.  Now I ain't never been in the theater biz, so that's likely normal for many showings, but at least have variety. 

 

And we're not talking about many of the smaller auditoriums, either (though we are in some cases).

 

Don't get me wrong, brisk business at the PLF screens in the 6pm/7pm corroridor as well as a handful/couple per-theater of the 6pm/7pm showtimes.  But I tend to think they could have cut back about 80% of the showtimes tonight and sold nearly the same amount of tickets.

 

Still, being PLF heavy (43.85% of all sales according to my sheet — which is very high for a final number) is gonna juice the ATP even higher, as @Shawn suspected.  So that 145% adj ad-hoc I have for previews is probably too low.  Perhaps way too low.

 

If I boost it to 155% I get a range of comps to 2.6m to 3.6m.  Sounds closer.  But gonna presume it's even more PLF heavy in the expensive parts of the country.

 

As an PURE ASS PULL GUESSTIMATE:  3.3m +/- .5m

(more or less centered on Oppenheimer)

 

 

 

*like Ric, exists thread Stage Right*

 

 

 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

All the fans who thought they had opening night tickets got Swiftboated.

 

(There's like three posters old enough here left to get this joke)

 

 

...

 

ALSO:

 

Still Too Soon, Man.

[vafrow]

32 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

The Regal IMAX near me has a 7:30 showing tonight which has been on sale for weeks and is north of 95% full. They added a 3:15pm IMAX showing back on Wednesday and it has sold a whopping 6 tickets so far.

 

In my area, IMAX screens were initially allocated to Exorcist when the TET sales began. They got added only around day 3, when the surge died down. A lot of them only got to half capacity even with being available for over a month and being the best available seats.

 

The sales pattern on this has been unlike anything else.

 

Avengers Endgame start. Dial of Destiny finish.

[Derpity]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

While I can understand and open to this idea of people standing and cheering up like a real concert. Well, a concert movie is an avenue for the crowd who would otherwise not have the opportunity to attend a concert but at least theaters should just put "Sing-Along" in the title to "warn" the other moviegoers.

 

Hopefully this isn't becoming a norm for other movies. I do agree the public manner in general, including in a theater, has gotten worse post-Covid. 

 

Went to see Stop Making Sense last weekend, and everyone there was dancing in their seats, including the olds.

[Bob Train]

1 hour ago, Dephira said:

 

Are people really expecting Killers of The Flower Moon, a 4 hour movie about the killing of Native Americans (this theme makes a big difference to the similarly long Oppenheimer) that will be on streaming very soon to put up any significant numbers? 

 

The last Scorsese/Leo collab with a much, much more accessible theme opened to 18m. Personally I'd be very shocked to see it open above 30m, and I imagine Eras 2nd weekend will be quite comfortably above that 

 

I also think even the latest trailer for KOTFM is too complex and confusingly cut for general audiences. Undoubtedly Leo and DeNiro will be enough to draw in some people but it just does not have the simple punch of "The biography of the man who invented the atomic bomb" 

That's because Wolf opened during the Holiday season, where openings are lower and legs are better. KOTFM tracking to make $33m-$42m on OW according to BOP. Many shows in big cities, like Metreon or Lincoln Square are already near sold out, and these shows have insanely high ATP which will boost grosses.

 

Also, Leo is the biggest movie star DOM, as every movie he made in the last decade has cleared $100m+ DOM, and even bigger OS. This is despite none of them latching onto a huge franchise/cinematic universe.

[Jonwo]

How much is filming a concert film, I imagine it's at best $20m so Taylor Swift is already swimming in cash.

 

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Jonwo

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

In my area, IMAX screens were initially allocated to Exorcist when the TET sales began. They got added only around day 3, when the surge died down. A lot of them only got to half capacity even with being available for over a month and being the best available seats.

 

The sales pattern on this has been unlike anything else.

 

Avengers Endgame start. Dial of Destiny finish.

 

It's more like the sales for anime movies...they get huge presales and very little walk ups.

Prior to Sound of Freedom (and like Passion of the Christ), most faith based movies also mostly worked the same way.

[Bob Train]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It's more like the sales for anime movies...they get huge presales and very little walk ups.

Prior to Sound of Freedom (and like Passion of the Christ), most faith based movies also mostly worked the same way.

Is Sound of Freedom a faith-based movie? It seems like a standard thriller/crime movie to me, unlike say Passion of the Christ.

[John Marston]

 

[Jonwo]

12 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Is Sound of Freedom a faith-based movie? It seems like a standard thriller/crime movie to me, unlike say Passion of the Christ.

God is mentioned a few times..

[Poseidon]

I'm not sure about "Wish". That Song in the Trailers sounds pretty promising and catchy and we know how a great Sountrack can carry such a movie.

 

We'll see.

 

The schedule is obviously the biggest nonsense in ages, with Trolls and Wish opening back to back while October is deserted in terms of kids movies. 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Poseidon

[Morieris]

If the Wish soundtrack comes out before the movie (it should, right) then I have more faith in it.  I remember listening to the Encanto soundtrack for weeks before I saw the movie on D+.

 

Personally, I have had "This Wish" stuck in my head since I saw a copy from a fansite at D23 (last year?).

 

Also Atom told me tickets for it just went on sale, which seems quite early.

Edited October 13, 2023 by Morieris

[JustWatching]

1 hour ago, LonePirate said:

The Regal IMAX near me has a 7:30 showing tonight which has been on sale for weeks and is north of 95% full. They added a 3:15pm IMAX showing back on Wednesday and it has sold a whopping 6 tickets so far.

My local Cinemark added five “early access” shows today starting at 2. They had sold a combined 6 tickets when I looked yesterday. Up to 53 now. So…yay?

[Grebacio]

what are your Taylor Swift songs rakings?

mine
1. seven
2. End Game
3. Anti Hero
4. Blank Space
5. willow
6. Wildest Dreams
7. august
8. 22
9. cardigan
10. Karma