It’s Me. Hi. I’m The Eras Tour Weekend Thread | 39M Friday

[The Dark Alfred]

Terrific hold for SAW X. Good WoM kicking on. Only trailing the original by 4m and will start gaining from next week onwards.

[M37]

30 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

*searches forum for "PSM"*

 

Ah.  Pre Sale Multiplier.   So just use the $2.8m figure directly? (2800k/1017) and junk everything else?  Can work with that.

 

Gonna wear a Bag of Shame regardless, but what can one do when one doesn't have any AMCs within 60 miles of a market?

Ultimately, the PSM is what you're trying to get to: how much does 1 ticket in a given sample mean on a national (well, domestic) grossing level.  We use comps (at final; earlier is for PSM and pace) to account for market share and ATP variances, but really all you need is the raw value. Every MCU ticket in Sacto by T-0 means ~$1670 (+/- 3%) in total preview gross, and whether that's by $14 ATP and .84% market share or $15 & .90% doesn't really matter

 

The larger and more stable the sample (like Alpha) the less the PSM will vary, the more reliable the output, but your market is fairly solid for a regional sample (which is why I said Dark Magic isn't luck, along with adjustments you make)

 

19 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Movio's presale data last weekend showed the south overindexing by a couple of points at the expense of west/midwest but with a larger overindexing for rural audiences (6 points above baseline index) at expense of cities. Could that be impacting presale tracking? (31% rural, 35% south)

Yes, Taylor Swift being a fan driven (minimal GA) and regional varied film is breaking a lot of the tracking rules, throwing off comps and adding extra uncertainty to the projections

 

Also, apologies to the usual weekend thread visitors for bringing all this tracking math over here

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Jonwo said:

God is mentioned a few times..

 

God's name is screamed many times in a lot of porno movies too. Doesn't make those faith-based just like it doesn't make sound of freedom a faith-based film.

[TwoMisfits]

Taylor Swift is gonna skew hugely female and hugely Caucasian.  So urban area demos may not fully index for the audience that this may have pulled in presales in more suburban and rural areas.  And for once, those areas are paying almost the same price per ticket.

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, M37 said:

Ultimately, the PSM is what you're trying to get to: how much does 1 ticket in a given sample mean on a national (well, domestic) grossing level.  We use comps (at final; earlier is for PSM and pace) to account for market share and ATP variances, but really all you need is the raw value. Every MCU ticket in Sacto by T-0 means ~$1670 (+/- 3%) in total preview gross, and whether that's by $14 ATP and .84% market share or $15 & .90% doesn't really matter

 

The larger and more stable the sample (like Alpha) the less the PSM will vary, the more reliable the output, but your market is fairly solid for a regional sample (which is why I said Dark Magic isn't luck, along with adjustments you make)

 

Yes, Taylor Swift being a fan driven (minimal GA) and regional varied film is breaking a lot of the tracking rules, throwing off comps and adding extra uncertainty to the projections

 

Also, apologies to the usual weekend thread visitors for bringing all this tracking math over here

 

Been slowly putting in the numbers from the 2pm to 3pm as I aim to wrap up at normal end of tracking at 4 to 4:30 ish and let me just say...

 

... a PSM of $2.8k is really not gonna help Sacramento all that much.  

 

*quickly thinks about taking out a loan to buy 1000 tickets in the area*

*sees even that ain't gonna make the Sacto numbers respectable*

 

...

 

Fuck.  CONE OF SHAME IT IS!

 

(yes, I know, it happens — has before, will again)

[Firepower]

I knew Saw X will have legs and won't die with x2 multi.

[Boxofficerules]

Saw X doing well?

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, Bob Train said:

 

 

Also kinda proves Taylor Swift is bringing in atypical audience that doesn't go see many other movies.

True. They don’t even show up for the ones she stars in lol

[eman92]

39 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Saw X doing well?

At my theater, which is a hugeeee theater, only Taylor Swift, Exorcist and Saw X have any type of showtimes after 7 PM. I think the lack of new movies will push people to see Exorcist and Saw X this weekend, more than usual. The average moviegoer isn't going to see Taylor Swift, so they are almost tied into seeing either Creator, Saw X or Exorcist if they want to see any type of movie this weekend. 

 

I just checked the 8 PM showing for Saw X like 20 minutes ago, and it's legit the most crowded I've ever seen a showtime for Saw X. Only like 1-2 random seats left in each row, and even seats being sold in the first half of the theater near the screen. Not completely sold out the bottom half, but the first row is essentially all taken. It does only have 1 good showtime though, but still this has to be a good sign. If Saw X had been given more screens I think it could have done better as counterprograming this week. I think theaters overplayed the demand of Taylor Swift and gave it so many new screens that aren't selling much. 

 

But yeah its tough to say with 100%%% certain if the lack of showtimes in general though could hurt Saw X, but the showtimes it does have should do well this weekend. It is also Friday the 13th so maybe that is gonna give Saw X and Exorcist more of a bump than they typically would have gotten

[Eric the IF]

 

@Jake Gittes

[Gavin Feng]

Source tells me #TSErasTourFilm is heading to around $45M range for FRI #boxoffice! First film EVER to have $40M+ opening day in OCT. Many ways for SAT and SUN to play out depending on repeat biz from Swifties, but breaking $100M for opening wknd looks likely! #TaylorSwift

[Cmasterclay]

 

[keysersoze123]

 

@Porthos I thunk we can rule out $28m. Though I would like @charlie Jatinder to update. I am not sure Gitesh has the latest data. 

Edited October 14, 2023 by keysersoze123

[Arlborn]

20 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Source tells me #TSErasTourFilm is heading to around $45M range for FRI #boxoffice! First film EVER to have $40M+ opening day in OCT. Many ways for SAT and SUN to play out depending on repeat biz from Swifties, but breaking $100M for opening wknd looks likely! #TaylorSwift

Over 40M would be great for it after all the doom and gloom over its final stretch of tracking 

Edited October 14, 2023 by Arlborn

[Porthos]

52 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

@Porthos I thunk we can rule out $28m. Though I would like @charlie Jatinder to update. I am not sure Gitesh has the latest data. 

 

I ruled out $28m hours ago once @Shawn dropped the $41m number in the thread, but thanks anyway.  

 

Sacto was just an outlier.  As I'm currently discussing over in the Tracking thread: Outliers happen.

 

Edited October 14, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I ruled out $28m hours ago once @Shawn dropped the $41m number in the thread, but thanks anyway.  

 

Sacto was just an outlier.  As I'm currently discussing over in the Tracking thread: Outliers happen.

 

Its perfectly possible all these are over estimations. Normally they look at trend and predict walkups for the rest of the day. I am not certain that formula works here. So I would wait for Charlie's update before any Swiftie pops any champagne (that said any number is great considering cost of making this one has been almost nothing).

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its perfectly possible all these are over estimations. 

 

---

 

ALL JOKING ASIDE (AND YES THE ABOVE IS VERY MUCH A SELF-KNOWING JOKE

 

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Normally they look at trend and predict walkups for the rest of the day. I am not certain that formula works here. So I would wait for Charlie's update before any Swiftie pops any champagne (that said any number is great considering cost of making this one has been almost nothing).

 

They're not gonna be off by 10m or more!   

 

Is what it is, Mid-to-high 30s is really the floor, IMO.  I've already moved on, with a smile on my face.

[Skim Beeble]

This would pretty much lock 100m, right? Maybe even 110m? Is it supposed to increase tomorrow?

[abracadabra1998]

On 10/12/2023 at 7:08 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

The average adjusted (45%) of my comps would be $52.6 Million. Of course, this assumes walk-ups that these movies had that this movie will not touch; usually I look at growth rates and compare them to get at a final prediction number, but I am truly lost at how to do that this time. I'll let more capable minds do that this time; I would guess a Friday number of around $40 million based on my numbers, but I think I'm overindexing this time around.

 

Me spitting out $40 million on a wild guess based on terrible comps and somehow ending up being right...

 

 

(Just don't go on my post history and look at any of my other predictions, ok? OKAY?)

[Arlborn]

12 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:

This would pretty much lock 100m, right? Maybe even 110m? Is it supposed to increase tomorrow?

It’s not increasing tomorrow, but over 40M should lock 100M