It’s Me. Hi. I’m The Eras Tour Weekend Thread | 39M Friday

[XXR vs XXR]

30 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

How much is filming a concert film, I imagine it's at best $20m so Taylor Swift is already swimming in cash.

 

 

 

$10-20M is the reported number. Variety estimated a few days ago that Taylor had already made $60M from pre-sales alone.

[Dephira]

49 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

That's because Wolf opened during the Holiday season, where openings are lower and legs are better. KOTFM tracking to make $33m-$42m on OW according to BOP. Many shows in big cities, like Metreon or Lincoln Square are already near sold out, and these shows have insanely high ATP which will boost grosses.

 

Also, Leo is the biggest movie star DOM, as every movie he made in the last decade has cleared $100m+ DOM, and even bigger OS. This is despite none of them latching onto a huge franchise/cinematic universe.

I look forward to the movie, I will see it and I think it will be great. I'm happy a movie like this got made with a big budget. But with regards to Box Office I see many question marks and few factors that would be very appealing to general audiences. It doesn't help that Leo looks mostly lost and like a grey character in the trailer. If it were a movie about a morally upstanding, heroic Leo facing off with DeNiro's villain character, it'd be a different story. That's just my opinion on the audience appeal, not the quality of the movie itself. 

 

I think it will play very well on the coasts and comparatively poorly everywhere else. This is just my gut feeling and people who have crunched actual numbers (which I have not) may disagree. If it even reaches 33m I would personally be pleasantly surprised. 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Dephira

[titanic2187]

2 hours ago, Dephira said:

 

Are people really expecting Killers of The Flower Moon, a 4 hour movie about the killing of Native Americans (this theme makes a big difference to the similarly long Oppenheimer) that will be on streaming very soon to put up any significant numbers? 

 

The last Scorsese/Leo collab with a much, much more accessible theme opened to 18m. Personally I'd be very shocked to see it open above 30m, and I imagine Eras 2nd weekend will be quite comfortably above that 

 

I also think even the latest trailer for KOTFM is too complex and confusingly cut for general audiences. Undoubtedly Leo and DeNiro will be enough to draw in some people but it just does not have the simple punch of "The biography of the man who invented the atomic bomb" 

Is funny to see how Oppenheimer suddenly becoming a more accessible movie after grossing near a billion when it is still a R-rated, 3 hours complex and talkie drama. 

[Eric the Ape]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

All the fans who thought they had opening night tickets got Swiftboated.

 

(There's like three posters old enough here left to get this joke)

I’m young. What’s a Swiftboat?

[TwoMisfits]

37 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Is Sound of Freedom a faith-based movie? It seems like a standard thriller/crime movie to me, unlike say Passion of the Christ.

 

It's not really, which is why it broke out and wasn't just 90% presales/10% walk ups...but it was released by a small company that had only done faith-based before it, so it kinda counts?

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It's not really, which is why it broke out and wasn't just 90% presales/10% walk ups...but it was released by a small company that had only done faith-based before it, so it kinda counts?

Not at all, attracting faith-based crowd and being a faith-based movie are two different matters. 

[Dephira]

12 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Is funny to see how Oppenheimer suddenly becoming a more accessible movie after grossing near a billion when it is still a R-rated, 3 hours complex and talkie drama. 

 

It's not at all accessible and what it did is one of the most impressive Box Office Runs of all time given what kind of movie it is. I never said it was accessible, so not sure why you are putting those words in my mouth. But its tagline is certainly much more digestible than that of KOTFM.

 

I only compared the two movies because I think people inflated their predictions for KOTFM after seeing Oppenheimer's performance, and I think the two movies are less comparable box office wise than it might seem on the surface 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Dephira

[MovieMan89]

Lol at Wolf being “accessible” by any conventional means. It most certainly was not, the star power and sway of Leo/Scorsese is the only thing that kept the MPAA from slapping it with the dreaded NC-17. That movie proved any Leo/Scorsese film will be a box office hit until proven otherwise. I think KOTFM can go as high as 200 if it’s well liked bc it’s an absolute wasteland of a fall and holiday season for comp, esp direct comp for the adult audience. 

[Dephira]

16 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lol at Wolf being “accessible” by any conventional means. It most certainly was not, the star power and sway of Leo/Scorsese is the only thing that kept the MPAA from slapping it with the dreaded NC-17. That movie proved any Leo/Scorsese film will be a box office hit until proven otherwise. I think KOTFM can go as high as 200 if it’s well liked bc it’s an absolute wasteland of a fall and holiday season for comp, esp direct comp for the adult audience. 

You can just quote me if you want to address anything I say. Do you think "Leo Dicaprio is a charismatic fraudster who gets rich on Wall Street, lives the American dream and gets hunted down by the FBI to get his comeuppance" is a less accessible theme than "Leo Dicaprio looks concerned while lots of Native Americans get murdered for making too much oil money, and Jesse Plemons starts investigating"? 

 

Btw, Deadline is agreeing with me and projecting a 24m opening weekend for KOTFM: ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ Eyes $24 Million Box Office Opening In U.S. – Deadline

I know Deadline has been wrong a ton of times for many, many reasons (including political/industry friendliness related reasons), but it's not like I'm totally alone with my feeling. I think Eras will be comfortably above 24m in its second weekend 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Dephira

[vafrow]

17 minutes ago, Eric Feels 22 said:

I’m young. What’s a Swiftboat?

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Kerry_military_service_controversy

 

 

[Bordlove]

15 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

what are your Taylor Swift songs rakings?

mine
1. seven
2. End Game
3. Anti Hero
4. Blank Space
5. willow
6. Wildest Dreams
7. august
8. 22
9. cardigan
10. Karma

Not in order except for Getaway Car (my absolute fave) 

 

1. Getaway Car

2. Cold As You

3. Fearless

4. Everything Has Changed

5. Style

6. Out Of The Woods

7. Red

8. Lover (yes, I love her title tracks) 

9. August

10. You're On Your Own, Kid

11. cowboy like me

12. Mr. Perfectly Fine

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, Eric Feels 22 said:

Cats had been off of Broadway for nearly two decades when the Hooper film came out. You're thinking of Dear Evan Hansen. That's a very, very rare case where a movie is so wretchedly godawful that it basically tarnished any and all goodwill built up within its franchise.

Cats was on Broadway in 2016 with Leona Lewis. Not sure if that was the most recent one though. 

 

27 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Is funny to see how Oppenheimer suddenly becoming a more accessible movie after grossing near a billion when it is still a R-rated, 3 hours complex and talkie drama. 

It’s also a Nolan summer film with a star studded cast and excellent reviews. 
 

Killers of the Flower Moon will be just fine with Dicaprio. 

[titanic2187]

3 hours ago, Dephira said:

Undoubtedly Leo and DeNiro will be enough to draw in some people but it just does not have the simple punch of "The biography of the man who invented the atomic bomb"

Enough to equate this to accessible.

 

17 minutes ago, Dephira said:

 

It's not at all accessible and what it did is one of the most impressive Box Office Runs of all time given what kind of movie it is. I never said it was accessible, so not sure why you are putting those words in my mouth. But its tagline is certainly much more digestible than that of KOTFM.

 

I only compared the two movies because I think people inflated their predictions for KOTFM after seeing Oppenheimer's performance, and I think the two movies are less comparable box office wise than it might seem on the surface 

Nevertheless, I do believe people are inflating KOFM potential a bit, NOT because KOFM is less accessible than Oppenheimer but because of KOFM's marketing has so far is less effective. 

[Spidey Freak]

32 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

what are your Taylor Swift songs rakings?

mine
1. seven
2. End Game
3. Anti Hero
4. Blank Space
5. willow
6. Wildest Dreams
7. august
8. 22
9. cardigan
10. Karma

 

Honestly keeps changing almost every month (like The Great War went from my favorite to out of the Top 10 in less than a year) but this is my current ranking:

 

1. Would've Could've Should've

2. Don't Blame Me

3. Style

4. Enchanted

5. seven

6. august

7. Hits Different 

8. Long Live

9. I Did Something Bad

10. Delicate

 

Conclusion: Reputation is probably still the best album overall, fuck the Scammies.

[Jonwo]

42 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

 

$10-20M is the reported number. Variety estimated a few days ago that Taylor had already made $60M from pre-sales alone.

There's always money to be made from concert tours but many artists don't want to film their tours for some reason. Don't get me wrong, it's better seeing concerts live but the cost can be very expensive. 

 

10 minutes ago, Dephira said:

You can just quote me if you want to address anything I say. Do you think "Leo Dicaprio is a charismatic fraudster who gets rich on Wall Street, lives the American dream and gets hunted down by the FBI to get his comeuppance" is a less accessible theme than "Leo Dicaprio looks concerned while lots of Native Americans get murdered for making too much oil money, and Jesse Plemons starts investigating"? 

 

Btw, Deadline is agreeing with me and projecting a 24m opening weekend for KOTFM: ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ Eyes $24 Million Box Office Opening In U.S. – Deadline

I know Deadline has been wrong a ton of times for many, many reasons (including political/industry friendliness related reasons), but it's not like I'm totally alone with my feeling. I think Eras will be comfortably above 24m in its second weekend 

The Wolf of Wall Street even with the long runtime had a great hook for audiences. It made $289m OS alone 

[Dephira]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

Enough to equate this to accessible.

 

 

A movie can have an accessible tagline and trailers without being actually accessible. 

 

This is a Box Office subforum and it should be well understood that box office appeal (which is closely correlated with trailer/tagline/marketing appeal) is very different from the actual appeal of a full-length movie

[Dephira]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

There's always money to be made from concert tours but many artists don't want to film their tours for some reason. Don't get me wrong, it's better seeing concerts live but the cost can be very expensive. 

 

The Wolf of Wall Street even with the long runtime had a great hook for audiences. It made $289m OS alone 

Idk if you meant to disagree with me, but I agree that WoWS had an extremely effective hook that works and is understood globally , and that's why it did super well globally despite having lots of graphic content. I don't see the same draw for KOTFM

[TwoMisfits]

11 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Enough to equate this to accessible.

 

Nevertheless, I do believe people are inflating KOFM potential a bit, NOT because KOFM is less accessible than Oppenheimer but because of KOFM's marketing has so far is less effective. 

 

KOTFM has the $5PLF Atom deal coming from TMobile...Oppenheimer did not.

 

That said...KOTFM is not really in the world of the movies that benefit most from the phone deals - those appealing to males 13-39 and those for potentially "tired" sequels (that get folks off the fence for one more).  So, it might not help much b/c the movie is so much already for a lot of GA.

 

I expect it to finish around $30M for the weekend.  Possibly even a touch lower.  But, I expect very low walk ups all month and next (til holiday family viewing at Thanksgiving) b/c of the disconnect between GA and prices of tickets and prices of life right now.

Edited October 13, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

3 hours ago, LonePirate said:

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT8robmeh/
 

If anyone attends this movie and they are not expecting it to be a standing up, full-throated sing-along concert experience, then they are in for a big surprise.

That was not my experience but I intentionally went to a Thursday show to avoid the crowds.

 

Most concert movie showings have a lively atmosphere unless it's some opera or classical music Fathom Event.

 

 

2 hours ago, JustLurking said:

With non-refundable tickets? Yeah, not sure if fudge is the right word since tickets sold are tickets sold, but it's an obvious attempt to juice up the numbers by forcing die-hards to double dip.

 

I am aware certain theaters allowed people to switch seats (probably caving in under the big amount of requests), but it's still pretty shitty and clearly last minute in an attempt to push the film over the line (be it the october record or 100M, not really sure if it gets over either one anyway though).

Her fans are mostly grown ups and it's ultimately the same movie playing each time (unlike live shows which have unexpected variables). I guess the limited edition merch could be an issue where your place in the line affects availability (though probably not, given the low attendance), but if they can't resist the peer pressure to spend an extra $20-30 just to be "FIRST!" then that is on them.

Edited October 13, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[nevermore]

Baby, Let The Games Begin: ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ Concert Film Eyes $40M-$50M Friday, Big Swing 3-Day $107M-$130M+

 

https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-taylor-swift-eras-tour-concert-film-opening-1235572671/