It’s Me. Hi. I’m The Eras Tour Weekend Thread | 39M Friday

Porthos · October 13, 2023

Sacto Tracking says:

EDIT

I see Deadline and I....

disagree.

Here's my Tracking Info In full:

======

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night (FRI) Seat Report:

OPENING NIGHT (FRI) MID-DAY REPORT [11:30am - 12:15pm]

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	309	26460	36239	9779	26.98%

Total Sellouts Added Since Last Night	1
Total Showings Added Since Last Night	0
Total Seats Added Added Since Last Night	0
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	199

9.61554x TET Thur Previews (26.9m) (9779/1017)

*NOT* ADJUSTED FOR SMALLER PLF THR to FRI PERCENTAGES!!!

T-0 Mid-Day Comps:

%

Sold Since
Last Night

Total

Sold

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

Final

Sold

% of

Final

TET Thr [12-12:20]

1219.33

321

802

0/155

18378/19180

4.18%

1017

961.55%

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

NOT WORTH IT ANY MORE COMPS, BUT KEEPING FOR POSSIBLE FINAL COMP TOTAL USAGE LATER TODAY:

T-0 Mid-Day Comp

	%	Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold	Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold	Final Sold	% of Final	Unadj Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	37.01	1358	26425	0/386	16423/42848	61.67%	28183	34.70%	18.50m	26.83m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	50.25	1194	19461	0/409	27068/46529	41.83%	21117	46.31%	18.09m	26.23m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	65.60	1390	14906	0/313	24653/39559	37.68%	16962	57.65%	19.03m	27.59m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	66.31	1125	14747	2/375	28391/43138	34.19%	16800	58.21%	18.57m	26.92m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	104.12	738	9392	0/308	27981/37373	25.13%	10475	93.36%	18.22m	26.42m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	106.31	836	9199	0/345	32602/41801	22.01%	10750	90.97%	18.60m	26.97m

T-0 More Useless Mid-Day Comps:

	%	Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold	Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold	Final Sold	% of Final	Unadj Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
Bats [11:30-12:35]	93.33	939	10478	1/327	28376/38854	26.97%	11757	83.18%	20.16m	29.23m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	103.05	1071	9490	0/290	24248/33738	28.13%	10966	89.18%	18.55m	26.89m
Ava 2[11:30-12:15]	123.68	666	7907	0/310	27128/35035	22.57%	8986	108.82%	21.02m	30.49m
AtSV[11:40-12:15]	121.21	1033	8068	0/251	22776/30844	26.16%	9744	100.36%	21.03m	30.49m
Barb [11:30-12:40]	92.40	1130	10583	3/271	19233/29816	35.49%	12077	80.97%	20.61m	29.88m
Oppy[12:15-12:25]	240.03	367	4074	2/80	6785/10859	37.52%	4621	211.62%	25.20m	36.55m
Barbn[11:30-12:10]	66.72	1497	14657	5/351	26018/40675	36.03%	16698	58.56%	21.88m	31.73m

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

Regal: 2642/11774 [22.44% sold]

===

No walkups whatsoever. And remember that 26.9m earned so far estimate is likely an high over-estimate thanks to PLF difference.

I have to audit my sheet to really make sure, but we tentatively might be looking at a 25m to 26m True Friday. Really haven't had enough time to really dig into ATP PLF differences.

Luckily I have a few hours to think it over and run some maths, but practically no GA interest whatsoever.

===========

@TheFlatLannister is seeing similar in his market as well.

I mean, maybe Deadline is right as I haven't thought about this enough yet.

But gotta tell you all, pitiful growth today... even when compared to GA walkups *yesterday*.

Edited October 13, 2023 by Porthos

keysersoze123 · October 13, 2023

50m friday !!!! I dont see that happening at all. My guess was 35m true friday and close to 38m with previews but it could go lower if walkups are abysmal.

Porthos · October 13, 2023

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

50m friday !!!! I dont see that happening at all. My guess was 35m true friday and close to 38m with previews but it could go lower if walkups are abysmal.

I might be radically overstating the PLF difference! But just on a pure Thr to Fri comp I have a hard time seeing this touching 30m True Friday based on Sacramento numbers.

Maybe the range ought to be closer to 26m to 28m based on my market, as I really am in uncharted waters. But, if yesterday is any indication (and why wouldn't it be?), just where are the walkups gonna come from?

Edited October 13, 2023 by Porthos

Eric the Ape · October 13, 2023

14 minutes ago, nevermore said:

Baby, Let The Games Begin: ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ Concert Film Eyes $40M-$50M Friday, Big Swing 3-Day $107M-$130M+

https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-taylor-swift-eras-tour-concert-film-opening-1235572671/

Quote

Early Screen Engine/Comscore PostTrak from last night, which was combed from $2.8M previews, gave Eras Tours five stars or 95% positive. Parents gave it 4 stars and kids under 12, 5 stars. Thursday night leaned 76% women with females under 25 at 42%, females over 25 at 34% and guys way behind at 15% over 25 and 9% under. Moms, natch, outnumbered Dads, 67% to 33% with an jawdropping 95% girls making up the majority of kids under 12. Best grades are women over 25 (100%) and under (97%) while men over 25 grit their teeth for 2 hours and 48 minutes giving Eras Tour its lowest grade of 78%. Note these exits will shift during the weekend.

In second place is Universal/Blumhouse/Morgan Creek’s Exorcist: Believer at 3,684 locations is seeing a second Friday of $3.8M, second weekend of $11M, -58%, for a ten-day of $44.9M.

Friday the 13th gonna Friday the 13th, but that's insane for Exorcist considering how awful reception is. To be fair, I guess it is the only horror option for many, so that does help it for a day like this. Even I was kind of tempted until I realized I knew better.

M37 · October 13, 2023

There’s a big gap between what some tracking markets (Sacto & Orlando) and others (Oklahoma & Alpha) are pointing to. But the utter lack of walk-up business is going to bring down that early Friday estimate regardless, I just don’t know if it will be closer to the higher end ($40M+) or the lower end (lower $30s)

I’m still expecting ~$35-$37, potentially missing out on $100M for full weekend and maybe not even reaching Joker’s $96.2M weekend

Porthos · October 13, 2023

Let's also not forget that the initial Deadline guesstimate last night was "under 5m".

And while 2.8m is technically "under 5m", it's probably not exactly the first number that came to mind when seeing that report.

titanic2187 · October 13, 2023

8 minutes ago, Dephira said:

A movie can have an accessible tagline and trailers without being actually accessible.

This is a Box Office subforum and it should be well understood that box office appeal (which is closely correlated with trailer/tagline/marketing appeal) is very different from the actual appeal of a full-length movie

Attributing Oppenheimer success to an accessible tagline and trailers, is always an act of captain hindsight. I can imagine if Oppy flopped today, people will then scream "Who would care about man who invented the atomic bomb???!!!" , "I smell a bomb right away when they released that dull and talkie trailer next to fun and colourful Barbie!"

AMC Theaters Enjoyer · October 13, 2023

$36M is my current guess for Friday.

Porthos · October 13, 2023

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

There’s a big gap between what some tracking markets (Sacto & Orlando) and others (Oklahoma & Alpha) are pointing to. But the utter lack of walk-up business is going to bring down that early Friday estimate regardless, I just don’t know if it will be closer to the higher end ($40M+) or the lower end (lower $30s)

I’m still expecting ~$35-$37, potentially missing out on $100M for full weekend and maybe not even reaching Joker’s $96.2M weekend

I mean, could have another Barbenheimer situation where Sacramento radically undershot. But unlike then, capacity isn't really an issue.

The only thing I can see is perhaps capacity was an issue originally when it mattered when sales were hot.

Could also be massively undershooting the ATP difference. But again, the ad-hocs of 155% out of Sacramento were damn near perfect and if I hadn't put a thumb on the scale out of fear and I might haven nailed it exactly.

I mean, look at this:

%

Sold Since
Mid-Day

Total

Sold

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

Final

Sold

% of

Final

Unadj

Comp

Ad-hoc Comp

NWH [3:00-4:30]

3.61

1758

28183

4/395

15229/43412

64.92%

28183

3.61%

1.80m

2.80m

IT REALLY WAS THE NO WAY HOME OF CONCERT FILMS!!!

Now, again, very likely to be wrong that this is under 30m True Friday. Maybe it is indeed as high as 40m! If it is, no shame as I literally have nothing really to compare it to.

But I gotta tell ya...

I would bet the under on the Deadline range, personally.

Edited October 13, 2023 by Porthos

Krissykins · October 13, 2023

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Attributing Oppenheimer success to an accessible tagline and trailers, is always an act of captain hindsight. I can imagine if Oppy flopped today, people will then scream "Who would care about man who invented the atomic bomb???!!!" , "I smell a bomb right away when they released that dull and talkie trailer next to fun and colourful Barbie!"

People could find reasons for any film either hitting or flopping.

People could easily say similar about Barbie if that bombed too.

Another failed IP, too feminist, too girly, Barbie’s not as popular as she once was etc etc

Krissykins · October 13, 2023

Who had The Exorcist: Believer potentially (it’s deadline) dropping under 60%, never mind 70%? Not me!

Porthos · October 13, 2023

SLIGHT CORRECTION INCOMING

titanic2187 · October 13, 2023

The early preview number from Deadline drop from $5m to $2.8m, if the same applied would give you 22-28m Friday.....

Porthos · October 13, 2023

Okay, I just noticed/remembered that due to it being more PLF heavy on Thur, I bumped up the ATP to 155% for Thursday previews instead of my initial 145%, and that nailed it almost exactly, especially on NWH.

But I think 155% is too high for Fri given the difference in PLF share on Thur and Fri.

Mid-Day Comp Check 155% ATP DIFFERENCE:

	%	Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold	Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold	Final Sold	% of Final	Unadj Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	37.01	1358	26425	0/386	16423/42848	61.67%	28183	34.70%	18.50m	28.68m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	50.25	1194	19461	0/409	27068/46529	41.83%	21117	46.31%	18.09m	28.04m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	65.60	1390	14906	0/313	24653/39559	37.68%	16962	57.65%	19.03m	29.49m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	66.31	1125	14747	2/375	28391/43138	34.19%	16800	58.21%	18.57m	28.78m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	104.12	738	9392	0/308	27981/37373	25.13%	10475	93.36%	18.22m	28.24m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	106.31	836	9199	0/345	32602/41801	22.01%	10750	90.97%	18.60m	28.84m

Mid-Day Comp Check 150% ATP DIFFERENCE:

	%	Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold	Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold	Final Sold	% of Final	Unadj Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	37.01	1358	26425	0/386	16423/42848	61.67%	28183	34.70%	18.50m	27.75m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	50.25	1194	19461	0/409	27068/46529	41.83%	21117	46.31%	18.09m	27.13m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	65.60	1390	14906	0/313	24653/39559	37.68%	16962	57.65%	19.03m	28.54m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	66.31	1125	14747	2/375	28391/43138	34.19%	16800	58.21%	18.57m	27.85m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	104.12	738	9392	0/308	27981/37373	25.13%	10475	93.36%	18.22m	27.33m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	106.31	836	9199	0/345	32602/41801	22.01%	10750	90.97%	18.60m	27.91m

Mid-Day Comp Check 145% ATP DIFFERENCE (ORIGINAL):

	%	Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold	Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold	Final Sold	% of Final	Unadj Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	37.01	1358	26425	0/386	16423/42848	61.67%	28183	34.70%	18.50m	26.83m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	50.25	1194	19461	0/409	27068/46529	41.83%	21117	46.31%	18.09m	27.13m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	65.60	1390	14906	0/313	24653/39559	37.68%	16962	57.65%	19.03m	28.54m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	66.31	1125	14747	2/375	28391/43138	34.19%	16800	58.21%	18.57m	27.85m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	104.12	738	9392	0/308	27981/37373	25.13%	10475	93.36%	18.22m	27.33m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	106.31	836	9199	0/345	32602/41801	22.01%	10750	90.97%	18.60m	27.91m

155% NHW at final call nailed it last night, but I think that percentage has to come down a bit because yesterday was more PLF heavy.

EVEN a 155% ATP difference isn't suggesting a 30m True Friday though.

But I do think I have to bump up the Sacto range to 28m to 30m as a gut check. Will almost certainly go with 150% ATP at final in a few hours.

Edited October 13, 2023 by Porthos

M37 · October 13, 2023

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I mean, could have another Barbenheimer situation where Sacramento radically undershot. But unlike then, capacity isn't really an issue.

The only thing I can see is perhaps capacity was an issue originally when it mattered when sales were hot.

Could also be massively undershooting the ATP difference. But again, the ad-hocs of 155% out of Sacramento were damn near perfect and if I hadn't put a thumb on the scale out of fear and I might haven nailed it exactly.

I mean, look at this:

%

Sold Since
Mid-Day

Total

Sold

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

Final

Sold

% of

Final

Unadj

Comp

Ad-hoc Comp

NWH [3:00-4:30]

3.61

1758

28183

4/395

15229/43412

64.92%

28183

3.61%

1.80m

2.80m

IT REALLY WAS THE NO WAY HOME OF CONCERT FILMS!!!

Now, again, very likely to be wrong that this is under 30m True Friday. Maybe it is indeed as high as 40m! If it is, no shame as I literally have nothing really to compare it to.

But I gotta tell ya...

I would bet the under on the Deadline range, personally.

Honestly I think Sacto’s Dark Magic “working” for Thursday was … shall we say fortuitous. A combination of an underindex (male skewing, MTC1 lite market) and a late sales announcement creating a metro & PLF heavy audience, essentially washing out to the “correct” answer (PSM)

For Friday, I expect something more in the middle, but it’s plausible that the others are just overindexing more and we get low rather than mid to upper $30s

TheFlatLannister · October 13, 2023

49 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Sacto Tracking says:

EDIT

I see Deadline and I....

disagree.

Here's my Tracking Info In full:

======

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night (FRI) Seat Report:

OPENING NIGHT (FRI) MID-DAY REPORT [11:30am - 12:15pm]

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

1

309

26460

36239

9779

26.98%

Total Sellouts Added Since Last Night

1

Total Showings Added Since Last Night

0

Total Seats Added Added Since Last Night

0

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

199

9.61554x TET Thur Previews (26.9m) (9779/1017)

*NOT* ADJUSTED FOR SMALLER PLF THR to FRI PERCENTAGES!!!

T-0 Mid-Day Comps:

%

Sold Since
Last Night

Total

Sold

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

Final

Sold

% of

Final

TET Thr [12-12:20]

1219.33

321

802

0/155

18378/19180

4.18%

1017

961.55%

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

NOT WORTH IT ANY MORE COMPS, BUT KEEPING FOR POSSIBLE FINAL COMP TOTAL USAGE LATER TODAY:

T-0 Mid-Day Comp

%

Sold Since
Last Night

Total

Sold

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

Final

Sold

% of

Final

Unadj

Comp

Ad-hoc Comp

NWH [11:30-12:40]

37.01

1358

26425

0/386

16423/42848

61.67%

28183

34.70%

18.50m

26.83m

MoM [11:30-12:40]

50.25

1194

19461

0/409

27068/46529

41.83%

21117

46.31%

18.09m

26.23m

Thor4 [11:30-12:25]

65.60

1390

14906

0/313

24653/39559

37.68%

16962

57.65%

19.03m

27.59m

BP2 [11:30-12:20]

66.31

1125

14747

2/375

28391/43138

34.19%

16800

58.21%

18.57m

26.92m

AM3 [11:35-12:25]

104.12

738

9392

0/308

27981/37373

25.13%

10475

93.36%

18.22m

26.42m

GOTG [11:30-12:20]

106.31

836

9199

0/345

32602/41801

22.01%

10750

90.97%

18.60m

26.97m

T-0 More Useless Mid-Day Comps:

%

Sold Since
Last Night

Total

Sold

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

Final

Sold

% of

Final

Unadj

Comp

Ad-hoc Comp

Bats [11:30-12:35]

93.33

939

10478

1/327

28376/38854

26.97%

11757

83.18%

20.16m

29.23m

JWD [12:00-12:50]

103.05

1071

9490

0/290

24248/33738

28.13%

10966

89.18%

18.55m

26.89m

Ava 2[11:30-12:15]

123.68

666

7907

0/310

27128/35035

22.57%

8986

108.82%

21.02m

30.49m

AtSV[11:40-12:15]

121.21

1033

8068

0/251

22776/30844

26.16%

9744

100.36%

21.03m

30.49m

Barb [11:30-12:40]

92.40

1130

10583

3/271

19233/29816

35.49%

12077

80.97%

20.61m

29.88m

Oppy[12:15-12:25]

240.03

367

4074

2/80

6785/10859

37.52%

4621

211.62%

25.20m

36.55m

Barbn[11:30-12:10]

66.72

1497

14657

5/351

26018/40675

36.03%

16698

58.56%

21.88m

31.73m

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

Regal: 2642/11774 [22.44% sold]

===

No walkups whatsoever. And remember that 26.9m earned so far estimate is likely an high over-estimate thanks to PLF difference.

I have to audit my sheet to really make sure, but we tentatively might be looking at a 25m to 26m True Friday. Really haven't had enough time to really dig into ATP PLF differences.

Luckily I have a few hours to think it over and run some maths, but practically no GA interest whatsoever.

===========

@TheFlatLannister is seeing similar in his market as well.

I mean, maybe Deadline is right as I haven't thought about this enough yet.

But gotta tell you all, pitiful growth today... even when compared to GA walkups *yesterday*.

Using Thursdays numbers as comps I get $24.17M *not adjusted for any ATP discrepancies*

Porthos · October 13, 2023

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Honestly I think Sacto’s Dark Magic “working” for Thursday was … shall we say fortuitous.

I'll be honest.

It's almost always fortuitous. 😉

AMC Theaters Enjoyer · October 13, 2023

32 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

$36M is my current guess for Friday.

Never mind make it $28M

Porthos · October 13, 2023

Lemme ask you something then, @M37. If I don't want to put a thumb on the scale and Just Report The Numbers, what ATP percentage adj would you use for Sacramento?

145%?

150%?

155%?

More? Coz I'd rather Sacramento be an outlier, but report what it reports than try to massage it. But I still think the ATP percentage is the wildest of the wildcards here.

Similarly, just use a flat Thr preview/Fri comp and damn the difference in PLF share as something of a gauge?

Edited October 13, 2023 by Porthos

M37 · October 13, 2023

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'll be honest.

It's almost always fortuitous. 😉

Nah, don’t sell yourself - nor Sacto - short it’s usually pretty spot on, and that’s not an accident. It may take the power of TayTay to defeat the Dark Magic

Does that make her a good witch or something?

Rose Mcgowan Power GIF

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It’s Me. Hi. I’m The Eras Tour Weekend Thread | 39M Friday

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Baby, Let The Games Begin: ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ Concert Film Eyes $40M-$50M Friday, Big Swing 3-Day $107M-$130M+

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