Weekend Thread | TAYLOR SWIFT $31M Estimate, KOTFM $23M

[Maggie]

Just now, Ryan Reynolds said:

Cinema is dead

SSSSSSSTOP!   WE're not doing the "theters are dead" shtick again

[Eric is Quiet]

Also from Deadline

Quote

Third place at 3,364 theaters is Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie with $1.2M in its fourth Friday and a fourth weekend of $5.1M, -26% and a running total of $56.7M.

 

Disney re-released Tim Burton’s Nightmare Before Christmas in 1,650 with an estimated Friday of $1.45M and 3-day of $4.3M.

 

Universal/Blumhouse’s Exorcist: The Believer is looking at 5th place with $1.25M in its third Friday at 3,323 theaters and a 3-day of $3.95M, -64%, and a running total by Sunday of $52.6M.

 

That Nightmare Before Christmas one is insane. Hocus Pocus' re-release was only slightly higher than NBC's Friday estimate ($1.61M). Good on this, even though it has no business getting a re-release in October. Sorry, but we as a culture need to stop pretending this is a Halloween movie. It's not.

[LonePirate]

I’m really curious how KOTFM will perform overseas. Obviously Leo is huge everywhere but I don’t think Scorsese has a deep international admiration society. The story is exceptionally American unlike Oppenheimer whose story had and has enormous global resonance.

[Valencia]

3 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Cinema is dead

Is this a new record at 3 months?

 

Oppenheimer saved cinema in July 2023, and Cinema died again in October 2023.

[Shawn Robbins]

13 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Thank you for the numbers. That seems quite good for KOTFM, no?

If it holds! 

[keysersoze123]

23 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Industry sources with super early numbers say...

 

KOTFM: 10.75 Fri (with previews)

Eras: 10.5 Fri (excludes Thu)

 

Let's see where this goes.

Really good for both the movies. low 30s for Eras and High 20s for Flower moon. 

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

I’m really curious how KOTFM will perform overseas. Obviously Leo is huge everywhere but I don’t think Scorsese has a deep international admiration society. The story is exceptionally American unlike Oppenheimer whose story had and has enormous global resonance.

Oppenheimer is probably not the right comp but how about previous Leo/Marty collabs. They have not done that badly. 

[TalismanRing]

2 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

That's true, the money is chump change for Apple. But I'm asking where the money went in terms of the production. With a James Bond movie for instance, you can SEE the money on the screen. Nolan just put out a 3 hour drama movie with a bunch of big name actors and it was $100M instead of $200M. Where did Marty spend the money? Lol

 

The big names actors took significantly less upfront for a bigger back end %.   Nolan's upfront salary was the biggest above the line cost by a significant margin.

 

This movie was initially budgeted for streaming so it's typical to pay more upfront than usual because there are no back end deals for actors.   Though that might have changed with the planned hybrid release.   Reportedly though Leo got paid $30m  (as he did for Don't Look Down).  DeNiro $22m, Gladstone $5m with every one else under $1m.  Scorsese at $15-20m.  So at least $80m just for above the lines costs.   Then there's $5m for the book rights.  

 

Still he could have filmed it for far less - ditto The Irishman.   Hugo was budgeted at $100m and he blew past that to $155-170m with no stars. 

 

Edited October 20, 2023 by TalismanRing

[Eric is Quiet]

 

[Taylor89]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Really good for both the movies. low 30s for Eras and High 20s for Flower moon. 

 low 30's for era with Thursday?

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Curiouser and Curiouser said:

Who can realistically go to a 3.5 hour movie at 2pm? Families, jobs, commutes, etc. I'm sure it helped a little but not much. 

 

Helped more than you might think, given it was overwhelmingly PLF showtimes at 2:30p

 

Century Arden (sampled at 4pm-ish) [most trafficked theater in town] (PLF)

230p	61	263
7p	95	263

 

Century Greenback (again sampled at 4pm-ish) (PLF)

230p	29	176
705p	41	176

 

Studio Movie Grill Rocklin (4pm-ish) (standard)

230p	27	72
715p	26	72

 

Century Blue Oaks (4pm-ish) (PLF)

230p	39	93
7p	41	93

 

Century Doco (4pm-ish) (PLF)

230p	46	214
7p	62	214

 

And so on and so on and so on.

 

The 2:30pm start times being overwhelmingly at the PLF screens helped a great deal, but even at non-PLF locations the 2:30pm start times did relatively decently:

 

Century Folsom (standard)

230p	19	283
7p	19	283

 

Regal Olympus Pointe (stanadard)

230p	43	79
330p	14	65
705p	28	79

 

Now there were some theaters that just faceplanted locally, but it was a 2.6m preview, so not surprising there.  Also there was something of a rush at 2:30pm times as there is a bit of a valley in the 3:30 and 4pm-5pm start times (I didn't include those in those other examples, but left it in the Olympus Pointe as something of a compare/contrast).

 

But, again, more than you might think!

 

NB:  Sample taken at approx 4:20pm local time, so it didn't capture walkups for the rest of the night.  But then again, my sampling never does.

[PlatnumRoyce]

Quote

After Imperative Entertainment bought the rights to Grann’s book in 2016, DiCaprio and Scorsese joined the project and it was shopped to Paramount. But the studio wanted the budget — then about $180 million with a tax credit from New Mexico — pared down to about $150 million. No one actually believed that Scorsese actually would have stuck to that number, but at least it would have let studio execs fantasize that costs might be kept in check.

...

Sources say things changed when the director and his star decided to revise the script..."smaller scale; same budget.”

-(June 2020) https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/general-news/behind-martin-scorseses-killers-flower-moon-apple-deal-1296394/

Quote

(April 2020) https://www.wsj.com/articles/martin-scorsese-courts-apple-and-netflix-to-rescue-costly-dicaprio-film-11586484037

Paramount executives expressed concern over the film’s rising projected cost, according to this person. They gave the Oscar-winning filmmaker’s representatives the go-ahead to offer the project to other studios, the person said...The project, “Killers of the Flower Moon,” had been slated for production at ViacomCBS Inc.’s Paramount Pictures, but then the movie’s cost ballooned to more than $200 million, another person familiar with the matter said.

 

budget information from when this was a theatrical film. So we don't know exactly what the walk away number was but it reads to me as at least 180-200 million before you throw in back end buyouts. It's definitely possibly I'm overreading WSJ quote and they're using a 200M gross budget allegation to justify passing on a premium prestige picture. 

[Bob Train]

30s is better than I expected for Eras tbh. I thought it was destined to drop 75% or so given the non-existent walk-ups we saw last week.

Random fact: Excluding Marvel movies, Eras is the only post-COVID movie that opened above $80m to have a 2nd weekend drop worse than 59%.

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Helped more than you might think, given it was overwhelmingly PLF showtimes at 2:30p

 

Century Arden (sampled at 4pm-ish) [most trafficked theater in town] (PLF)

230p	61	263
7p	95	263

 

Century Greenback (again sampled at 4pm-ish) (PLF)

230p	29	176
705p	41	176

 

Studio Movie Grill Rocklin (4pm-ish) (standard)

230p	27	72
715p	26	72

 

Century Blue Oaks (4pm-ish) (PLF)

230p	39	93
7p	41	93

 

Century Doco (4pm-ish) (PLF)

230p	46	214
7p	62	214

 

And so on and so on and so on.

 

The 2:30pm start times being overwhelmingly at the PLF screens helped a great deal, but even at non-PLF locations the 2:30pm start times did relatively decently:

 

Century Folsom (standard)

230p	19	283
7p	19	283

 

Regal Olympus Pointe (stanadard)

230p	43	79
330p	14	65
705p	28	79

 

Now there were some theaters that just faceplanted locally, but it was a 2.6m preview, so not surprising there.  Also there was something of a rush at 2:30pm times as there is a bit of a valley in the 3:30 and 4pm-5pm start times (I didn't include those in those other examples, but left it in the Olympus Pointe as something of a compare/contrast).

 

But, again, more than you might think!

 

NB:  Sample taken at approx 4:20pm local time, so it didn't capture walkups for the rest of the night.  But then again, my sampling never does.

 

Folks have to eat and sleep - it will probably sell really only between 1-2:30pm and then 6-7:30pm...and it will be dead the rest of the day.  I mean, Deadline took Shawn's early number and dropped it $1.75M+ in less than 2 hours...so either it's a big Deadline underestimate (VERY possible) or 1st shows on the 1st screen did well and 1st shows on the 2nd screen (which theaters seem to have spaced 90 minutes apart) fell off...

Edited October 20, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

30s is better than I expected for Eras tbh. I thought it was destined to drop 75% or so given the non-existent walk-ups we saw last week.

Random fact: Excluding Marvel movies, Eras is the only post-COVID movie that opened above $80m to have a 2nd weekend drop worse than 59%.

 

 

It also had relatively small Thur previews and didn't play Mon-Wed

[Maggie]

Oppenheimer was 3 hours and i don't think people complained that much about the runtime. Is half an hour plus that big of a deal?

[TwoMisfits]

PS - If $22M holds, and that's with the TMobile deal, that's not a good number for KOTFM b/c it shows GA really didn't want to show up, even for $5.  So, when it's not $5 next weekend...

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

Oppenheimer was 3 hours and i don't think people complained that much about the runtime. Is half an hour plus that big of a deal?

 

Nolan movies have a broader theater demographic than Scorsese thanks to Batman and Inception - many of whom don't care about that run time or how it affects their sleep or work the next day.   Then there was the Barbenheimer effect ...   Maybe Marty should have opened it against The Marvels - could have helped both.

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

The big names actors took significantly less upfront for a bigger back end %.   Nolan's upfront salary was the biggest above the line cost by a significant margin.

 

This movie was initially budgeted for streaming so it's typical to pay more upfront than usual because there are no back end deals for actors.   Though that might have changed with the planned hybrid release.   Reportedly though Leo got paid $30m  (as he did for Don't Look Down).  DeNiro $22m, Gladstone $5m with every one else under $1m.  Scorsese at $15-20m.  So at least $80m just for above the lines costs.   Then there's $5m for the book rights.  

 

Still he could have filmed it for far less - ditto The Irishman.   Hugo was budgeted at $100m and he blew past that to $155-170m with no stars. 

 

Makes sense stars went for upfront rather than backend for this risky project. Its interesting that Marty tends to go overboard on his budget in past decade or so. Hugo being so high and Irishman/Flower Moon etc makes little sense as most of his movies lack mass appeal. I think only Cape Fear in early 90s or Wolf of the Wall Street were movies which are accessible to mass audience though his movies are mostly R rated due to shocking violence or profanity or both. 

[Shawn Robbins]

22 minutes ago, Taylor89 said:

 low 30's for era with Thursday?

Thursday isn't being included in the weekend, according to an AMC source.