Weekend Thread | TAYLOR SWIFT $31M Estimate, KOTFM $23M

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Oppenheimer was 3 hours and i don't think people complained that much about the runtime. Is half an hour plus that big of a deal?

Marty to me is a strong contender for greatest director of all time, but in terms of popularity, I wouldn't put him in Top 10 or 20 at any point in his career. Nolan is probably 2nd biggest director after Cameron today and Cameron has had 2 movies this century :-)(2nd one sequel of the 1st). So runtime does not matter when there is fanbase. No one cared Endgame was 3 hours long as well. Everyone came whether it was hardcare fans or casual folks who enjoyed MCU movies.  

[Krissykins]

Deadline with only a 70% Thursday to Friday jump for Exorcist. That would be very low. 

[keysersoze123]

9m seems too low for Flower Moon. It will go up for sure. 

[Shawn Robbins]

56 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Thank you for the numbers. That seems quite good for KOTFM, no?

Quick and dirty maths:

 

2.65 Thu

8.1 True Fri

10.04 Sat (+24%)

6.53 Sun (-35%)

27.32 wknd

 

What could be intriguing is if Saturday jumps more than the usual opener this time of year, and/or drops less on Sunday (possible considering the older audience and IMAX factor).

 

For example, The Woman King jumped 39% on Saturday. That alone would lead to a scenario of...

 

11.26 Sat

7.32 Sun (same -35% drop)

29.33 wknd

 

So 30m is a bit of a stretch at the moment unless Friday goes up and/or Sat really escalates and Sunday drops under 30% in the second scenario above...

 

But it's doable and there are pathways to get there. Or may just barely miss.

[Shawn Robbins]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

9m seems too low for Flower Moon. It will go up for sure. 

I don't know if their source for 9m is Paramount... but I know the ones I posted early are not. For whatever it's worth.

[SpiderByte]

There's a lot of spin in here for an opening that's probably under Blue Beetle. Barbenheimer was not gonna happen with this and Taylor Swift

[harry713]

35 minutes ago, Taylor89 said:

 low 30's for era with Thursday?

without

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

but a different more indie minded filmmaker probably could've figured out how to make this same movie for like $40mil.

Yeah... no. It's overpriced because of massive paydays to main trio, but not to this point. Quality period piece is not cheap.

[eeetooki]

1 hour ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

What if it really cost $300-400M...sheesh Marty, lol

Shit is the production set made of gold lol

[Mulder]

18 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

There's a lot of spin in here for an opening that's probably under Blue Beetle. Barbenheimer was not gonna happen with this and Taylor Swift

It was going to be a limited only theatrical release until Apple decided to give it a wide one. It was never supposed to be some giant Oppenheimer tier money maker. Comparing it to Blue Beetle is absurd.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, eeetooki said:

Shit is the production set made of gold lol

80 year old director with a $3 trillion company funding the movie. Yeah, screw it. Get out the money printer!

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, ListenHunnyUrOver said:

3.5 hours is too long for most people, especially since there are usually quite a few previews, so a trip to KOTFM is basically a 4 hour investment at minimum. The movie could've easily lost an hour of runtime as well.

When Kingdom of Heaven lost an hour of runtime for a theatrical cut it didn't end well.

[eeetooki]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

80 year old director with a $3 trillion company funding the movie. Yeah, screw it. Get out the money printer!

Even though I get that Apple doesn't care about the money I am still confused as to where the money went tbh. Like with MI7 I can at least see in the action sequence where the bulk of the cost is, that and COVID.

[eman92]

31 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Deadline with only a 70% Thursday to Friday jump for Exorcist. That would be very low. 

Almost all of Deadline's numbers seem very odd. They have KOFTM only doing 22M which seems low. Then on top of that they have A Nightmare before Christmas doing 4.3M which sounds crazy. Hocus Pocus only did 1.6M, and almost every other box office site is showing 1.4-1.6M for the whole weekend for Nightmare.

 

The Exorcist number also makes no sense, especially since it really didn't lose many theaters. But to say Exorcist is gonna drop from 11M to 4M in its 3rd week doesn't make any sense. 

 

 

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, eeetooki said:

Even though I get that Apple doesn't care about the money I am still confused as to where the money went tbh. Like with MI7 I can at least see in the action sequence where the bulk of the cost is, that and COVID.

It sounds like there were COVID problems on Killers as well. Sort of a development hell movie going back to 2016. 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

12 minutes ago, Mulder said:

It was going to be a limited only theatrical release until Apple decided to give it a wide one. It was never supposed to be some giant Oppenheimer tier money maker. Comparing it to Blue Beetle is absurd.

My local theater gave KotFM three screens, and today, one of the six showings only sold 8 tickets. Theaters sure aren't going to be thinking "this is fine" if the film underperforms.

[Bob Train]

9 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

My local theater gave KotFM three screens, and today, one of the six showings only sold 8 tickets. Theaters sure aren't going to be thinking "this is fine" if the film underperforms.

If it can open above $24m, which seems to be possible, then it will be Scorsese's 3rd highest OW inflation adjusted.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

9 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

If it can open above $24m, which seems to be possible, then it will be Scorsese's 3rd highest OW inflation adjusted.

I mean, that's great for Scorsese, but my local theater giving this film its biggest screens and only selling a handful of tickets at one of the showings in said large theater isn't ideal. But maybe that's just the ineptitude of the theater's management.

Edited October 20, 2023 by MysteryMovieMogul

[Mulder]

44 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

My local theater gave KotFM three screens, and today, one of the six showings only sold 8 tickets. Theaters sure aren't going to be thinking "this is fine" if the film underperforms.

Theaters make the least amount of their money on opening weekend and make more as the weeks go on. If it continues to look bad they'll simply program it out and fill it in with more showings of Taylor Swift or whatever. Absolutely goofy argument here.

[SpiderByte]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

It was going to be a limited only theatrical release until Apple decided to give it a wide one. It was never supposed to be some giant Oppenheimer tier money maker. Comparing it to Blue Beetle is absurd.

I'm sorry but it's got a 250 million dollar plus price tag. It costs nearly twice Blue Beetle. It's absolutely comparable.