Weekend Thread | TAYLOR SWIFT $31M Estimate, KOTFM $23M

[TomThomas]

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Also I will say that if Napoleon does the numbers people here are talking about (10m OW/25 total) then trailer views should be abolished as a meaningful metric. Both trailers have now exploded on YouTube and social media metrics. A-Lister like Joaquin plays Napoleon in a movie from Gladiator director is a far easier sell than KOTFM even if Joaquin/Ridley ain't Leo/Marty.

It's not gonna open to 10m OW, quit smoking that pipe, the interest is there.

Edited October 21, 2023 by TomThomas

[titanic2187]

got this list from Reddit. KotFM does have better score as compared to most of the Scorsese’ movies. Next stop is Oscar nomination sweep and Scorsese’s 10th directing and best picture nomination, then the success is complete. 
 

• The Color of Money (1986): B–

• New York Stories (1989): B

• Goodfellas (1990): A–

• Cape Fear (1991): B+

• The Age of Innocence (1993): B+

• Casino (1995): B–

• Bringing Out the Dead (1999): C–

• Gangs of New York (2002): B

• The Aviator (2004): B+

• The Departed (2006): A–

• Shutter Island (2010): C+

• Hugo (2011): B+

• The Wolf of Wall Street (2013): C

• Silence (2016): A

 

[emoviefan]

Not a shock TBH. Was hoping it would break out a little more but there was so much working against this movie it could have been worse. The movie will have legs and it was made for the prestige not the Box office. No way Apple financed this thinking it would do massive blockbuster business. 

[DAJK]

Just got out of Killers. Good movie, but you can REALLY feel the runtime, and I wonder if that’ll impact WOM.

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Just got out of Killers. Good movie, but you can REALLY feel the runtime, and I wonder if that’ll impact WOM.

And I have seen other people say they do not feel the length all that much. I am seeing it tomorrow.

[eeetooki]

2 hours ago, John Marston said:

 

I mean you can’t deny the meme power helped both movies massively. What other reason is there for Oppenheimer to make so much more than Dunkirk/Interstellar?

 

The fact that Nolan has built up a dedicated audience over the years, his whole brand of must-see in IMAX mentality, and that it's a good movie with mass appeal. I mean I respect Scorsese but he was never a huge box office draw. His highest worldwide box office is at like 400m.

Edited October 21, 2023 by eeetooki
numbers

[lorddemaxus]

People talking about the movie being over-budgeted and how it's gonna bomb cuz of it. Yadda yadda yadda. Saddest part is that I doubt we're gonna see a movie about Native American history and life and involving them so prominently with even 1/10th of this budget for a long-ass time. Why I'm grateful this movie exists

[Krissykins]

25 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

People talking about the movie being over-budgeted and how it's gonna bomb cuz of it. Yadda yadda yadda. Saddest part is that I doubt we're gonna see a movie about Native American history and life and involving them so prominently with even 1/10th of this budget for a long-ass time. Why I'm grateful this movie exists

Obviously it’s a completely different film, but Prey featured native Americans so well and in a non-stereotypical way just last year too, including the lead character of the whole film. 

[Avatree]

I was out with friends last night and one of them was trying to convince me to see kotfm, he said it was absolutely incredible. But I just cant stomach 3+ hours for a western.

[Bob Train]

6 hours ago, John Marston said:

 

I mean you can’t deny the meme power helped both movies massively. What other reason is there for Oppenheimer to make so much more than Dunkirk/Interstellar?

Inflation, stacked cast, more popular subject matter, first R-Rated blockbuster since Wick 4

 

Most importantly, it had better WoM than Dunkirk/Interstellar as evidenced by the A cinemascore.

[TwoMisfits]

5 hours ago, DAJK said:

Just got out of Killers. Good movie, but you can REALLY feel the runtime, and I wonder if that’ll impact WOM.

 

Yeah, I don't get everyone saying this movie will have great legs, with the feedback from folks here.

 

Multiple folks have said this movie "feels" too long, which is the nice way of saying it gets boring in parts.  So, I can't see GA showing up in weekend 2/3, when they didn't show up for $5 in weekend 1.  And I can't see theaters keeping it when the max showings folks will show to per screen is TWO - a 1-2pm showing start and a 6-7pm showing start.  On weekend 4 (Nov 10), there are 3 wide releases and weekend 5 (Nov 17) has 4.  Even with as horrible as Sept/Oct box office has been outside Taylor, I can't see theaters sticking with a movie that only gets a couple seats sold/showing and can't be run more than twice/day.

 

People wondered a few weeks ago why Equalizer 3 had a bad 2nd weekend - it was the TMobile adjust effect (since that fall movie also had the deal).  Now, imagine KOTFM having that as Freddy takes 33-50% of screens at theaters with Taylor having another 2...and it being Halloween, so "grown up" horror will be kept...I don't see KOTFM having more than 1 screen at anything under 10 screens (and probably 12) next weekend...

 

TL/DR - I think $100M DOM is out in 1st run.  Maybe an Oscar re-release grows legs if it wins.

[TomThomas]

2 hours ago, Avatree said:

I was out with friends last night and one of them was trying to convince me to see kotfm, he said it was absolutely incredible. But I just cant stomach 3+ hours for a western.

So you hate cinema?

[MysteryMovieMogul]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Yeah, I don't get everyone saying this movie will have great legs, with the feedback from folks here.

 

Multiple folks have said this movie "feels" too long, which is the nice way of saying it gets boring in parts.

I haven't seen this much, but I have seen a ton of people say the subject matter is misery porn. That by the end of the film, you feel drained, because while it's a great film, the way the Osage People are treated is simply awful and the film doesn't shy away from the horrors of the time.

Edited October 21, 2023 by MysteryMovieMogul

[vale9001]

7 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

got this list from Reddit. KotFM does have better score as compared to most of the Scorsese’ movies. Next stop is Oscar nomination sweep and Scorsese’s 10th directing and best picture nomination, then the success is complete. 
 

• The Color of Money (1986): B–

• New York Stories (1989): B

• Goodfellas (1990): A–

• Cape Fear (1991): B+

• The Age of Innocence (1993): B+

• Casino (1995): B–

• Bringing Out the Dead (1999): C–

• Gangs of New York (2002): B

• The Aviator (2004): B+

• The Departed (2006): A–

• Shutter Island (2010): C+

• Hugo (2011): B+

• The Wolf of Wall Street (2013): C

• Silence (2016): A

 

 

 

What? Scorsese career always had these ""low"" cinemascores?.

 

Anyways the fact this last movie has a kinda of High career cinemascore shows imo nowadays Cinemascore has lost meaning. 

 

People going to see a movie in the First day now are very informed about how a movie has been received by critics or in the internet so even if they didn't like that much they gave an higher vote cause doesn't seem "they didn't understand It".

 

Years or decades ago cinemascore  was a expression of a more spontaneous reaction

Edited October 21, 2023 by vale9001

[AN9815]

14 hours ago, Bob Train said:

KotFM will still be more profitable than Marvels.

You guys are obsessed with The Marvels and it hasn't even opened yet

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Issac Newton]