Weekend Thread | TAYLOR SWIFT $31M Estimate, KOTFM $23M

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am not certain as well. Only thing I can think off is everything was on location(no green screen) and they needed tons of extras to get the production complete. Plus how long was the production. Nolan said he finished Oppenheimer in 57 days !!! This probably would have taken longer. 

 

Based on Wiki, production went on for over 5 months in 2021 and then there were pickups in 2022 as well. Plus this project was in pipeline since 2016 and was supposed to go into production 2019(got delayed as distribution got changed from Paramount to Apple very late in pre production). COVID delays took it to 2021 for production to start. It seems to be a troubled production. I think grandeur was the main reason why it seems to have cost so much. They wanted to do it all in Osage county.  

Expensive cast and crew, shooting it in Pawhuska for like five months (not really a place with film/tv infrastructure), massive covid department, huge attention to detail with production design and costumes. Basically making Pawhuska look like it was in the 1920s for five months and renting out businesses, etc. Period pieces are always extremely expensive. They are a huge undertaking. It probably could have been made for less, but it would have likely needed to be filmed elsewhere and sacrifices would have had to have been made in the various departments. So like a "budget" version of what we got. 

 

I thought the production design and costumes were so so good. 

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

A history/drama opening to 30M (hopefully) is pretty good imo.

Yep! 30 seems like the target and it probably won't' hit it, but anything in that vicinity is amazing. And I think it's the Leo effect more than a Scorsese effect. 

[redfirebird2008]

13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Sorry, is there supposed to be something “wrong” with that KOTFM preview number? Did I miss where its over 40 year old adult audience was supposed to rush out on a Thursday night to see a 4 hour movie so that they can get to bed at 2am for the Friday workday? 

 

Nothing wrong with it. It's similar to the Mission Impossible movie. The only "problem" is the huge budget of the movie. But setting that aside, the number seems pretty good for Killers IMHO. 

[MovieMan89]

12 minutes ago, Curiouser and Curiouser said:

I think the comps were never right so people had high and lofty expectations when this was the number all along. I would love this to make close to 30 million (closer to 30 than 20)  and before any projections came out, I think everyone would have thought that was amazing. But I have no idea what it will make this weekend because it's just too unusual. 

 

I mean I expected more than 30m OW, but I don’t think previews can be any indicator for this is the point. 

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

6 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Nothing wrong with it. It's similar to the Mission Impossible movie. The only "problem" is the huge budget of the movie. But setting that aside, the number seems pretty good for Killers IMHO. 

I wish Apple had hid the budget like they hide everything else because if this film was being evaluated like a normal movie, this opening would be impressive.

[Krissykins]

23 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Sorry, is there supposed to be something “wrong” with that KOTFM preview number? Did I miss where its over 40 year old adult audience was supposed to rush out on a Thursday night to see a 4 hour movie so that they can get to bed at 2am for the Friday workday? 

Previews started at 2pm so they could’ve gone to a 6pm showing and been in bed by 11. 
 

(I’m sure the runtime could have an impact, for those who actually check the runtime. But it didn’t stop Oppenheimer having huge weekdays here in the UK). 
 

But yes, this is the box office so we can’t just ignore production budgets when measuring success.
 

It’s releasing in cinemas the same as other films and will be directly compared as such. 

Edited October 20, 2023 by Krissykins

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

Just now, Krissykins said:

Previews started at 2pm so they could’ve gone to a 6pm showing and been in bed by 11. 
 

(I’m sure the runtime could have an impact, for those who actually check the runtime. But it didn’t stop Oppenheimer having huge weekdays here in the UK). 

Who can realistically go to a 3.5 hour movie at 2pm? Families, jobs, commutes, etc. I'm sure it helped a little but not much. 

[redfirebird2008]

8 minutes ago, Curiouser and Curiouser said:

I wish Apple had hid the budget like they hide everything else because if this film was being evaluated like a normal movie, this opening would be impressive.

 

Should have carved out $100M of the budget and moved it to expenses for manufacturing iPhones. 

[CoolioD1]

The movie it most reminded me of while watching it was actually Heaven's Gate. Hopefully not a bad omen.

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

29 minutes ago, Curiouser and Curiouser said:

Who can realistically go to a 3.5 hour movie at 2pm? Families, jobs, commutes, etc. I'm sure it helped a little but not much. 

3.5 hours is too long for most people, especially since there are usually quite a few previews, so a trip to KOTFM is basically a 4 hour investment at minimum. The movie could've easily lost an hour of runtime as well.

Edited October 20, 2023 by ListenHunnyUrOver

[PlatnumRoyce]

32 minutes ago, Curiouser and Curiouser said:

I wish Apple had hid the budget like they hide everything else because if this film was being evaluated like a normal movie, this opening would be impressive.

But Apple did hide the budget. The $200M budget number comes from trade reporting from while the deal fell apart at Paramount over costs (and some changes to who played what role). It's very likely they're hiding a good chunk of the budget

 

Quote

this opening would be impressive.

Sure, but this isn't really a special case as Gangs of New York shows. It was a christmas 2002 release and seen as underwhelming when it opened to 9.4M (~16M adjusted for 2022 ticket price inflation so > $16.50 adjusted to 2023 inflation). That's clearly a better opening. 
 

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2002-dec-23-et-munoz23-story.html

Edited October 20, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

But Apple did hide the budget. The $200M budget number comes from trade reporting from while the deal fell apart at Paramount over costs (and some changes to who played what role). It's very likely they're hiding a good chunk of the budget

 

What if it really cost $300-400M...sheesh Marty, lol

[TwoMisfits]

43 minutes ago, Curiouser and Curiouser said:

Who can realistically go to a 3.5 hour movie at 2pm? Families, jobs, commutes, etc. I'm sure it helped a little but not much. 

 

The 65+ crowd, which probably showed up high for this in OK...they don't go on weekends - they like weekday matinees...

[Eric Loves Rey]

3 hours ago, Maggie said:

People on Letterboxd seem to be enjoying it. 4.3 score. On Imdb, the reviews are kinda mid. But i wonder, why does Letterboxd have  thousand of reviews and on Imdb just 71 reviews? Has Imdb fallen that much in recent times?

It's a lot easier to make a "witty" 1-2 sentence review on Letterboxd and get easy likes, while IMDb basically forces you to say more than just a dated Film Twitter meme. Their climates are night and day basically.

[CoolioD1]

Really after seeing it there's no reason for the budget to be as high as the irishman. I think the whole town must've been a built set and that's what cranked the budget up but a different more indie minded filmmaker probably could've figured out how to make this same movie for like $40mil. 15 years ago but still There Will Be Blood cost just over 10% of what this cost to make. Not complaining though it's not my money.

[Shawn Robbins]

Industry sources with super early numbers say...

 

KOTFM: 10.75 Fri (with previews)

Eras: 10.5 Fri (excludes Thu)

 

Let's see where this goes.

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Industry sources with super early numbers say...

 

KOTFM: 10.75 Fri (with previews)

Eras: 10.5 Fri (excludes Thu)

 

Let's see where this goes.

Thank you for the numbers. That seems quite good for KOTFM, no?

[PlatnumRoyce]

5 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

Really after seeing it there's no reason for the budget to be as high as the irishman. I think the whole town must've been a built set and that's what cranked the budget up but a different more indie minded filmmaker probably could've figured out how to make this same movie for like $40mil. 15 years ago but still There Will Be Blood cost just over 10% of what this cost to make. Not complaining though it's not my money.

 Funnily enough, we just got a "real" number for TWBB last week and it turns out Miramax just lied. It looks so good because it was a ~50M budgeted film. 

 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/a24-expands-strategy-arthouse-gems-130000940.html

 

Quote

Back then, a notable disappointment was Paul Thomas Anderson’s 2007 film “There Will Be Blood,” a Miramax co-production that epitomized the excessive spending of specialty divisions. Its production cost exceeded $45 million, and Vantage spent nearly as much on marketing as it grappled with the challenge of attracting an audience and securing Oscar recognition for the somber period drama. The film, however, still sits high on many critics’ lists of the best films of that decade.

plug that into an inflation calculator and it's going to be around 70M today. 

[Eric Loves Rey]

6 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Industry sources with super early numbers say...

 

KOTFM: 10.75 Fri (with previews)

Eras: 10.5 Fri (excludes Thu)

 

Let's see where this goes.

https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-taylor-swift-killers-of-the-flower-moon-1235579033/

 

Quote

 AMC‘s Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is currently planning to hold onto the No. 1 spot at the box office with a second estimated Friday of $10.25M, -73%, for what’s looking like a second weekend around $32M at 3,855 theaters, -66%.

 

Meanwhile, Apple Original Films and Paramount‘s 3 hour and 26 minute Martin Scorsese movie, Killers of the Flower Moon, is looking pretty good. Booked at 3,628 theaters, Friday is shaping up to be $9M for a $22M 3-day opening. Some rival distribs even have it higher.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Cinema is dead