Thanksgiving 5-days Weekend thread | BOSS: 42.2m, Napoleon: 32.75m, Wish: 31.6m, Trolls: 25.6m, Thanksgiving: 10.9m

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

There’s only one way to save Disney: John Carter and the Gods of Mars.

 

Mars needs John Carter: The Adventures of Pluto's Heaven Gate.

[Eric Furiosa]

9 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I think the jury is massively out on whether it’ll generate much of anything.  Unless costs plummet on how much these services cost to run. 
 

Unless they just don’t spend any money making anything new and hope people still stay subbed and continue paying more and more for it? 
 

as it stands they are losing money on projects that used to make money, and it’s difficult to see how that is going to change anytime soon.  The audience hasn’t gone anywhere. They’re just like “well if you want to give me the content I used to happily pay big money for for next to nothing then I’ll take it!”  
 

Totally cheapened the brand - such a dangerous game to play. 

Well they were going to lose money on these projects even if Disney+ never happened. Most of Disney's current flops were poorly-recieved by fans and critics. And that stings way more than putting it on a streaming service. I know that this whole "streaming bad" thing is your schtick, but would Love and Thunder seriously make a billion if Disney+ never existed? Would Lightyear become this major sensation if Turning Red wasn't on Disney+? Would Haunted Mansion be this giant hit if it came out on October and no streaming service existed? Strange World? Wish? Dial of Destiny? Maybe at most, for some of these, you'd add 100M to their lineup. And that's stretching it. Like I can't imagine Haunted Mansion making as much as it did. You're not gonna excite a lot of people to see movies that have poor reviews and reception. That's the main culprit. And no streaming boogeyman was going to stop these movies from seeing the reception they got.

 

It's no coincidence Disney's biggest, leggiest hits were well-regarded and warmly-recieved features like Guardians 3, Black Panther 2, Elemental, even Little Mermaid. We can argue how much Disney+ hurt their totals, and I know you will, but attendance was already going down even before streaming became a thing. So yeah, I think you're missing the bigger picture here, but go off I guess.

[vafrow]

29 minutes ago, TomThomas said:

There was a rumor that movie turned out to be ass and Black Adam plus controversies around it damaged The Rock's career, so maybe it has something with that.

 

But it's a Rock streaming movie that was filmed and paid for. It's supposed to be ass. 

 

Throw it on the streaming service. Put little stockers on everyone's Amazon packages for a month. People figure out that they have access to a Prime Video account and throw it on in the background, and it basically achieves it's objective.

[TMP]

1 hour ago, Hatebox said:

Re: Napoleon, I’ve actually heard a few people in Real Life talk about it, which is very rare for movies these days.

Pretty much the exclusive baseline for my predictions now lol. Only other movies i’ve seen anyone talk about are Barbie and Oppenheimer. I think this website is one of the only places I’ve even heard about The Marvels - a mega bomb was inevitable considering how nobody in the real world gave a fuck haha

[TwoMisfits]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Just Wish and it seem to finish almost on par with Encanto opening wednesday. Actually fewer tickets but ATP is higher 2 years later and so its almost on par. So seeing 6m true wednesday and 8.3m with previews. Just meh considering where the presales were. Way worse walkups than Trolls last week. I think meh reviews had definite impact for sure. 

 

No Disney movie walks up as well as similar type non-Disney movies anymore.  It's best to compare Disney type to Disney type vs non-Disney to Disney.

[WorkingonaName]

I base my predictions off Instagram reels. 

[Firepower]

7 hours ago, Torontofan said:

Ridley Scott should just make a high-budget tv show...

 

His films and stories are way better in the longer cuts.

 

Kingdom of Heaven is the best example of that. 

Paycheck and budget on TV shows is not nearly as nice, plus most TV shows are forgotten next day, unless it's upper tier stuff like Breaking Bad and Game of Thrones, even mediocre high profile movies have more staying power as long as it's not direct to streaming.

[Kon]

15 minutes ago, TMP said:

Pretty much the exclusive baseline for my predictions now lol. Only other movies i’ve seen anyone talk about are Barbie and Oppenheimer. I think this website is one of the only places I’ve even heard about The Marvels - a mega bomb was inevitable considering how nobody in the real world gave a fuck haha

I've noticed similar indifference towards Aquaman 2. Maybe even worse.

[Johnny Tran]

6 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

 Jurassic world Dominion would have been a sub 300m Dom and Sub 800m WW in 2023.

 

 

 

 

I disagree with that.  Dinosaurs sell.  Fast X still did over $700M this year.  The Dinos would have been fine.  

[SchumacherFTW]

34 minutes ago, Eric Bonaparte said:

Well they were going to lose money on these projects even if Disney+ never happened. Most of Disney's current flops were poorly-recieved by fans and critics. And that stings way more than putting it on a streaming service. I know that this whole "streaming bad" thing is your schtick, but would Love and Thunder seriously make a billion if Disney+ never existed? Would Lightyear become this major sensation if Turning Red wasn't on Disney+? Would Haunted Mansion be this giant hit if it came out on October and no streaming service existed? Strange World? Wish? Dial of Destiny? Maybe at most, for some of these, you'd add 100M to their lineup. And that's stretching it. Like I can't imagine Haunted Mansion making as much as it did. You're not gonna excite a lot of people to see movies that have poor reviews and reception. That's the main culprit. And no streaming boogeyman was going to stop these movies from seeing the reception they got.

 

It's no coincidence Disney's biggest, leggiest hits were well-regarded and warmly-recieved features like Guardians 3, Black Panther 2, Elemental, even Little Mermaid. We can argue how much Disney+ hurt their totals, and I know you will, but attendance was already going down even before streaming became a thing. So yeah, I think you're missing the bigger picture here, but go off I guess.

The thing I feel like we've learned the last couple of years is that while streaming is fantastic for the consumer, it's unquestionably awful business for the studios, and has fundamentally caused a shift that's been threatened since TV was introduced in the 50s. Disney as a company though, I don't think it's the first time they've had this issue, don't forget the malaise of the "what would Walt do?" era which had a similar creative drought. 

Edited November 23, 2023 by SchumacherFTW

[wildphantom]

 

@Eric Bonaparte I feel myself roll my eyes at my own posts as I’m writing them sometimes about Disney+, so I accept you’re tired of them too. Haha

 

Do I think some of those movies would have made substantially more than they did if there was no Disney+? Absolutely. 

 

A previous poster was correct though. It was the putting of theatrical films on Disney+, and in turn putting not long in theatres films on there too quickly that’s done the damage. 
 

Even if some of the films mentioned had done average $50 million more - that’s still a staggering amount of money per project to leave on the table for the sake of a service that’s losing them hundreds of millions every quarter. 
 

It is what it is. The reception of any film is important, but I do think the streaming service is way more to blame than the quality of the films in terms of performance. 

[Eric Furiosa]

Just now, SchumacherFTW said:

The thing I feel like we've learned the last couple of years is that whole streaming is fantastic for the consumer, it's unquestionably awful business for the studios, and has fundamentally caused a shift that's been threatened since TV was introduced in the 50s. Disney as a company though, I don't think it's the first time they've had this issue, don't forget the malaise of the "what would Walt do?" era which had a similar creative drought. 

Okay. I got that. But this isn’t the reason Lightyear and Dial of Destiny bombed. That is what I am getting at. I think I’m being very clear here, but whatever.

[Johnny Tran]

I'm so tired of the "box office is dead"  discussions,  Happy Thanksgiving everyone by the way.  Here's my problem with it. 

 

If 'The Marvels' or 'Wish' were great movies with 85%+ RT from critics and 90% from audiences and an 'A' CS and all that and were still bombing then I would agree this is a horrible month.  

 

But these movies STINK.  What do you want from people?  People are speaking with their wallets.  

[SchumacherFTW]

2 minutes ago, Eric Bonaparte said:

Okay. I got that. But this isn’t the reason Lightyear and Dial of Destiny bombed. That is what I am getting at. I think I’m being very clear here, but whatever.

I think the two are linked. Disney broke the pattern of getting people in, then stopped making appealing products

[Johnny Tran]

4 hours ago, emoviefan said:

And this is the thing  with the CBM bubble bursting and so many people being happy and wanting that but then being depressed with the current BO landscape. Well you got your wish what did you think was going to happen with all those lost dollars.

 

Maybe those CBMs should be good instead of terrible wastes of time? 

[CJohn]

Me waiting for some juicy Thanksgiving box office official estimates.

[stripe]

28 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

One aspect of Disneys crash is one that may need decades - not years - to recover: The air of magic surrounding the name Disney itself. What i mean by that is that Disney basically since its birth as a company promised viewers of their movies pure, otherwordly escapism into storys that are modern fairy tales based on old traditions and folklore. Its high point was arguably the 1990s era Disney rennaissance. I mean after producing generational hits like Aladdin, Beauty and the Beast and especially The Lion King one after another, Disney built a trusting audience and extremely wide fanbase within the GA that associated Disney movies with greatness, talent and escapism.

 

But now? For over a decade the name Disney stands for unoriginality, remakes, reboots, deluding/destroying whole brands like Star Wars and now possibly even Marvel and as a whole, it stands for everything wrong with modern movies for many people. Not for all of course, but for many. The trust that Disney has been building up since the 1930s basically is gone now. And the studio would need many MANY great films in a row to rebuilt that trust.

 

For reference, im not a Disney hater or anything like that. I love tons of Disney movies, but nearly all of them are now older than 10 years. In my opinion, the quality downgrade in Disneys movie portfolio is obvious and audiences have little faith and patience anymore with Disney.

 

It's not true GA has lost faith/interest in Disney.

 

Of course, Disney has had a lot of highs and downs through its 100 years of history. After 80's huge crisis arrived "Renaissance era", then in 2000's there were a lot of huge misteps (Treasure Island, Atlantis, Home on the Range, The Wild) mixed with great entries (Lilo&Stitch, Enchanted)... And we returned to strong succesful entries during 2010 decade. So what we are witnessing now is nothing uncommon or unseen.

 

Now quality fluctuates but there are still some good/great animated films, like Encanto and Raya, both original entries with damaged BO results due to Covid.

[Johnny Tran]

By the way,  I'll wait for the official numbers but it looks to me like Hunger Games is doing quite well this month.  I don't think you can compare it to the previous movies. It's a prequel without Katiness/Jennifer Lawrence to a franchise that has been dormant for some time and it's not like the reviews were glowing either...  and yet it's performing pretty well for itself.  

 

Anyone saying Hunger Games isn't doing well is being overly pessimistic.  

[Kon]

9 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

I'm so tired of the "box office is dead"  discussions,  Happy Thanksgiving everyone by the way.  Here's my problem with it. 

 

If 'The Marvels' or 'Wish' were great movies with 85%+ RT from critics and 90% from audiences and an 'A' CS and all that and were still bombing then I would agree this is a horrible month.  

 

But these movies STINK.  What do you want from people?  People are speaking with their wallets.  

 

Well, The Marvels was bombing from the first day even before people could really know it was a terrible movie.

 

The lack of interest in a brand cannot be attributed to the low quality of a film.

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

Well, The Marvels was bombing from the first day even before people could really know it was a terrible movie.

 

The lack of interest in a brand cannot be attributed to the low quality of a film.

For better or for worse (imo for worse) a bunch of people use Rotten Tomatoes before buying movie tickets. That's what they mean by quality. If that tomato's rotten, or honestly too low percentage wise (people know how to read it now honestly) a lot of people will just not go see a movie. We've seen this happen time and time again tracking wise now where a film'll be doing decent with potential for exploding and then the RT score hits and it's over.