Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

[PrinceRico]

Oof at this weekend. The Color Purple can't come soon enough.

[filmlover]

Anyone But You is actually the surprise among openers considering how little it seemed to have going for it pre-release? The marketing struggled to find the right tone to sell it, comedies (especially R-rated ones) have been doing peanuts for the most part in theaters for a while, both stars were untested/unproven, and the reviews weren't very good either (though 49% RT score isn't awful for a romcom). Between this and both Priscilla and even Saltburn doing better than expected for movies of these sorts circa 2023, is it reasonable to speculate the stars of Euphoria have some pull after all?  Zendaya is probably going to power Challengers past CMBYN to become the biggest movie of Luca's career all by herself.

 

Also really solid numbers for The Iron Claw and Poor Things. The latter seems set to be around for a while as awards season is about to fully kick off in a few weeks.

 

Good expansion for American Fiction and a very strong start for All of Us Strangers. The latter will obviously play much better in metropolitan areas than anywhere else, but hopefully can develop good staying power upon expansion.

[Nanatri]

Still no info about Hunger Games?

[JimmyB]

Still think Wonka ends up around Mary Poppins Returns box office domestically.  To much family competition not enough moviegoers. 

[M37]

13 minutes ago, Nanatri said:

Still no info about Hunger Games?

I think whomever reports for Lions Gate went on vacation as of this past Tue. Probably no numbers until 12/26 

[interiorgatordecorator]

hows the race to 100 10 million grossers looking?

seems like the boy and the boat might make it 

[Cmasterclay]

With that slight drop from estimates for Wonka/Aquaman/Migration, it puts falling below last year's 93 million aggregate for the top 10 in danger. That'd be rough. That said, the total gross is going to soar above, because the 11th biggest movie this weekend would have been like the fourth last year. That's the story of this winter - great depth, no mega hits.

Edited December 23, 2023 by Cmasterclay

[HummingLemon496]

The best comp for Wonka is Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, another film that opened on the pre-Christmas weekend in the $35-40M ish range with GREAT word of mouth. The opening weekend started out 110% of Spider-Verse but now by 2nd Friday it's 120% of it. I think $250M is a safe bet.

Edited December 23, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[AniNate]

2 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

(-)

Wish

Walt Disney

$423,000

-15%

-42%

1,740

$243

$56,766,918

31

 

Obviously way too little too late but that's a pretty decent hold given it lost almost half its theaters, didn't collapse as much as Strange World did when Puss came out. Perhaps it is finding a certain appreciation now as a "feel-good holiday movie" as it were and can limp out another $10 mil or so. 

 

Edited December 23, 2023 by AniNate

[nguyenkhoi282]

Wonka is dropping steeper than I thought this weekend. DOM probably land 225-250M now. Shame it's the best movie of the current bunch.

 

Total WW should be around 650M, shame again for not enough to break top 5 WW for 2023, though No.7 should be it. 

 

Pray for somehow it cracks 700M 🙏

[M37]

30 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

The best comp for Wonka is Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, another film that opened on the pre-Christmas weekend in the $35-40M ish range with GREAT word of mouth. The opening weekend started out 110% of Spider-Verse but now by 2nd Friday it's 120% of it. I think $250M is a safe bet.

Spider-Verse was also contending with $30M+ from Aquaman and Bumblee on that 2nd Friday …

[Legion Again]

This calendar didn’t put that much of a squeeze on things today I would wait until wed to see how holdovers were able to hold up

[HummingLemon496]

7 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

This calendar didn’t put that much of a squeeze on things today I would wait until wed to see how holdovers were able to hold up

 

Completely unrelated but. . .

 

you said 3.5 --> 20 --> 85 

 

 

/s (I don't care it was close enough anyway)

Edited December 23, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Cmasterclay]

Based on my projections......

 

300m movies

2023 - 5

2022- 8

2019- 10 

 

100m movies

2023- 25 or 26 

2022 - 18

2019 - 31

 

50m movies

2023- 49

2022 - 33

2019 - 56

 

10m movies

2023- 101

2022 - 72

2019 - 121

 

Pretty clear story - a rebuild from 2022, but still a long way to go from 2019. 2024 not looking quite as bad as I expected, but still probably not much better than this year.

[JonathanMB]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

hows the race to 100 10 million grossers looking?

seems like the boy and the boat might make it 

 

Judging from pre-sales it should clear $10M by next Friday or even Thursday. Ferrari should also get there before end of the year, I think.

[Legion Again]

20 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

 

Completely unrelated but. . .

 

you said 3.5 --> 20 --> 85 

 

 

/s (I don't care it was close enough anyway)

I said 3-4.5*5-6*4-5, jury is still out  

 

Those geomean to 90 which I still think may be within 15% or so which would be pretty good for a day 1 forecast 😛 

Edited December 23, 2023 by Legion Again

[babz06]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Anyone But You is actually the surprise among openers considering how little it seemed to have going for it pre-release? The marketing struggled to find the right tone to sell it, comedies (especially R-rated ones) have been doing peanuts for the most part in theaters for a while, both stars were untested/unproven, and the reviews weren't very good either (though 49% RT score isn't awful for a romcom). Between this and both Priscilla and even Saltburn doing better than expected for movies of these sorts circa 2023, is it reasonable to speculate the stars of Euphoria have some pull after all?  Zendaya is probably going to power Challengers past CMBYN to become the biggest movie of Luca's career all by herself.

 

Also really solid numbers for The Iron Claw and Poor Things. The latter seems set to be around for a while as awards season is about to fully kick off in a few weeks.

 

Good expansion for American Fiction and a very strong start for All of Us Strangers. The latter will obviously play much better in metropolitan areas than anywhere else, but hopefully can develop good staying power upon expansion.

CMBYN only made 18m dom (41 m Ww) so it’s not a high bar. But I agree Zendaya can probably drag Challengers to 20m. It doesnt seem like the audience that they draw is very large though. Hollywood needs to give these young actors better star vehicles that appeal to all demos.

[joaqs]

Deadline has Hunger Games numbers:

 

Hunger Games: Songbirds & Snakes (LG) 2,509 (-782) theaters, Fri $1.2M (-29%) 3-day $3.5M (-40%), 4-day $5.4M total $154.8M/Wk 6

[HummingLemon496]

38 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

I said 3-4.5*5-6*4-5, jury is still out  

 

Those geomean to 90 which I still think may be within 15% or so which would be pretty good for a day 1 forecast 😛 

I don't think ~$90M total is out of question tbh (yeah that would require like 3.15x or something but a B is poor)

 

 

Edited December 23, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[titanic2187]

 

Quote

Diagnostics on Aquaman 2 show PostTrak audiences harder on the film, with 3 stars and 69% positive and a 50% definite recommend. Kids under 12 are better with it at 87% positive and a 62% must see right away. Mostly guys showing up at 63%, with little more than half the audience between 18-24.

 

PostTrak 69% (3 stars), RT VA 77% and Cinemascore B. This is step down from The Flash which scored better at Posttrak at 4 stars, and RT was also higher at 83%. Suffice to say Aquaman is having worse WOM here at State. 

 

 

Quote

The largest demo are 25-34 year olds at 27%. Diversity demos are 29% Caucasian, 26% Latino and Hispanic, 23% Black, 15% Asian and 7% other —

 

 

Quote

Mostly guys showing up at 63%, with little more than half the audience between 18-24.

 

Big decline of female audience this round. The original aquaman had 52% female but drop to just 37% this round. Like I said, I always believe to attract female moviegoers, romance is a must. Something Aquaman is lacking this round.