Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

[AniNate]

1 minute ago, dallas said:

 

 

 

 

That's way over the initial estimate, I guess they filled out the matinees today

[dallas]

WB having three $100M domestic grossers release within the same month is actually crazy. They really turned their year around hard. 

[Cmasterclay]

Color Purple would still have to have historically bad holiday legs to miss 100. Think it ends somewhere between 120-150. 

 

Boat marketing was absolutely relentless the last two weeks. Couldn't watch a single down of football without seeing an ad it felt like. It paid off!

[WrathOfHan]

The Boys in the Boat is totally going to be the next movie my mom watches and goes "That's a good, clean old fashioned movie!"

 

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by WrathOfHan

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Color Purple would still have to have historically bad holiday legs to miss 100. Think it ends somewhere between 120-150. 

.... did anyone suggest it wouldn't get to $100 m dom?

[HummingLemon496]

It won't flop due to the tiny budget but an Illumination original barely crossing $100M domestic is kinda bad 
 

Edited December 26, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, cannastop said:

.... did anyone suggest it wouldn't get to $100 m dom?

A couple people in the tracking thread did this week. But there's been some fairly odd rhetoric about it in that thread that isn't reflective of the general opinion of the boards, for sure.

[JimmyB]

32 minutes ago, Eric Wonka said:

Can’t wait for people to pretend that this number is bad actually. Totally not gonna be obnoxious and irritating no siree

Its a good number but people got their expectations to high and were locking in 20m+ opening day

[cannastop]

I don't believe for a minute that "original" animation is dead.

Original ideas have to come from somewhere

[Cmasterclay]

I loved the Iron Claw, but I'm also a huge pro wrestling fan, a lover of both the Bear and Mindhunter, was in a production of High School Musical when I was young, and consider Lily James the hottest woman in Hollywood. So please don't take my review that seriously. 

[AniNate]

8 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

It won't flop due to the tiny budget but an Illumination original barely crossing $100M domestic is kinda bad 
 

 

I'm thinking Meledandri was aware it might be a tougher sell than their usual movies in this environment. Ultimately, they're probably gonna be focusing on much more lucrative IP for the foreseeable future anyway, so at least this shouldn't be causing much stress.

 

For better or worse, they are exemplifying a potential path for studios to go in the future to remain stable, it may very well require keeping budgets low for some ideas.

 

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by AniNate

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

A couple people in the tracking thread did this week. But there's been some fairly odd rhetoric about it in that thread that isn't reflective of the general opinion of the boards, for sure.

I think the reason was boxing day sales were weak. It can still overcome those but there was also a pay it forward thing going on, so 25th could just be very loaded.

 

Missing 100M is very much possible from 16M OD. If tomorrow drops big as sales would have suggested, would become likely as well, unless WOM is really great.

[M37]

32 minutes ago, dallas said:

There's no way it does only $16M. Nearly every showing in my area is like 80-90% full with even a few sellouts. 

Yes, but how many shows did it have? 
 

The last film to have at least a $16M true day was actually FNAF back in October, with HG:Boss, Marvels and Wonka all landing in $14-$15.5M range for their daily peak.
And each of these 1) had somewhere in range of double the number of shows, so if they were half full, would be the same number of tickets 2) had near exclusive on PLF to boost ATP numbers, and 3) almost certainly performed better in the median and below market than a film like TCP will 

 

And btw, $16M (if it holds) would be the 3rd highest grossing Xmas day opening ever, behind only Les Miserables and Sherlock Holmes 

[Porthos]

34 minutes ago, dallas said:

Okay but even multiple people on this forum have reported similar things regarding this movie. Don't get me wrong, $16M is still a good number, especially for a film of this kind, but I expected closer to $20M, especially after watching walkups help Aquabro and Migration exceed projections. 

 

When the insane number of matinee tickets being sold is factored in, 16m-ish has been on the table for TCP for quite a while.

 

Like, here's an unofficial Sacramento number from this morning:

 

7829 tickets sold at approx mid-day check.

 

That'd be about 74% of Barbie, which is... 16.5m and that's before matinee pricing is even factored in.  It had been at about 80% of Barbie, and dropping steadily.

 

Now Sacramento was underperforming big time, which is one of the reasons I didn't make an official mid-day update  post (the other was the timing wasn't 1:1 to Barbie and not up to my exacting standards).  But it was also showing just how tough 20m would have been.  Or 18m, for that matter. 

 

 

===

 

To put the above a different way, there were three wildcards with TCP:
 

1] How much to adjust for a ton of matinee tickets

2] How much capacity would throw a monkey wrench into things and depress walkups.

3] How much would this over index in major metros/underperform in other areas.

 

Now I don't think we could know exactly how much each variable would depress things.  But several of us in the Tracking thread have been preaching caution, even while hoping for something better.

 

Still don't know a final number yet.  But have to say 16m-ish isn't really much of a surprise at all.  

 

tl;dr: Blame capacity — THE END

 

 

 

 

[Eric Lasagna]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I loved the Iron Claw, but I'm also a huge pro wrestling fan, a lover of both the Bear and Mindhunter, was in a production of High School Musical when I was young, and consider Lily James the hottest woman in Hollywood. So please don't take my review that seriously. 

Well I don’t watch wrestling and haven’t seen Mindhunter and I liked it too. But I may also be biased, because movies with hot people are my kryptonite. And Zac and Lily and Jeremy are all cuties.

[Poseidon]

I don't get it. 

 

14 years ago, top 4 movies pulled $70m on CD with WAY lower ATP. Shows are selling out left and right, and still the Top movies only generate barely $50m in 2023? 

 

Jesus, even Into the Woods smashed $15m on CD. TCP looked so much bigger...

 

 

I think we have a huge shift from matinee and late shows to only the prime time showtimes, I have no other explanantion. 

 

Just seems like the old magical days of BO wonder are past us. 

 

And yes, $16m is still great. 

Edited December 26, 2023 by Poseidon

[Cmasterclay]

It's hard for me to square both capacity causing issues and it having horrible legs with no spillover boost tomorrow and Wednesday. Unless there's just a huge segment of people that wanted to see Color Purple, it was sold out, and now won't see it because it isn't Christmas.

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

had somewhere in range of double the number of shows

The theaters where Color Purple was selling out had lots of shows. They just weren't enough. But you can't just kick a movie out one day and bring it back the next day

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

It's hard for me to square both capacity causing issues and it having horrible legs with no spillover boost tomorrow and Wednesday. Unless there's just a huge segment of people that wanted to see Color Purple, it was sold out, and now won't see it because it isn't Christmas.

 

Might have to see how it does on the weekend.  Yes, "Every day is Saturday".  But... kinda not really?  Some folks still have to work.  I'd wait for the actual weekend to see if this is still a Weekend Movie like many adult-skewed films have been in the past.

 

The other option, as much as one doesn't want to hear it:  (SEQUEL-ISH) FAN RUSH

 

Might not be a Nostalgic Toy Commercial (and gawds do I hate that phrase oh so very much), but it certainly has in in-built base of folks already interested in it.  Might just take time for the WOM to filter out from the fans to the GA.

 

[AniNate]

I do feel like we might be overlooking the possibility it's not attracting the same kind of audience in less diverse locales as urban areas