Han and Eric's Doom and Gloom/Controversial Predictions of 2024

[YM!]

Kind of surprised at the weak KFP4 numbers considering the trailer did very well despite it looked mediocre. 147M views day one is strong. 

[WorkingonaName]

Dune: $600M

 

Kung Fu Panda: $400M

 

Mickey-17: $400M

[BadOlCatSylvester]

43 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

March 8

 

Kung Fu Panda 4: Dreamworks sequels as of late haven't quite been struggling but are not generating enough buzz and interest as the studio did even a decade ago. Having been 8 years since the last Kung Fu Panda, its prospects are a bit unpredictable. The franchise has historically seen diminishing returns domestically in favor of higher international skews, which I expect continue. Older audience turnout will make or break the gross, especially if a newer Dreamworks franchise like Trolls is inching across 100M. I just don't think the nostalgia is there for another installment. 20/80 (4x)

 

Imaginary: Unlike Night Swim, this has time to generate buzz for Blumhouse and starts the first film in a Lionsgate partnership. If it's at least decent, being the first horror film since January could help fuel a mini-breakout. 14/42 (3x)

 

Cabrini: Angel Studios film? Angel Studios gross. 5/15 (3x)

I have to agree with that Kung Fu Panda 4 prediction. That trailer did absolutely nothing for me, and Mike Mitchell's journeyman nature won't help it at all. Had the early rumours about the Puss 2 team handling it been true it would've stood a chance.

 

Also, while I mostly expect Dune 2 to do well, I have this sinking feeling that it might underperform like Dead Reckoning did this year. People might have had their fill the first time not necessarily want any more.

[interiorgatordecorator]

17 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Also, while I mostly expect Dune 2 to do well, I have this sinking feeling that it might underperform like Dead Reckoning did this year. People might have had their fill the first time not necessarily want any more.

 

dont want to talk about dune underperformance without having any idea as to what 1's non-covid, non-day and date gross might have been like

[JustLurking]

4 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I have to agree with that Kung Fu Panda 4 prediction. That trailer did absolutely nothing for me, and Mike Mitchell's journeyman nature won't help it at all. Had the early rumours about the Puss 2 team handling it been true it would've stood a chance.

 

Also, while I mostly expect Dune 2 to do well, I have this sinking feeling that it might underperform like Dead Reckoning did this year. People might have had their fill the first time not necessarily want any more.

That doesn't make any sense whatsoever? Dune 1 is in no way a complete story that gives anyone "their fill".

 

There probably is a portion of the audience that found it too brainy and slow and won't return, but that has nothing to do on them having had their "fill" just disliking the film, and should hopefully be more than offset by newfound audience on streaming and just not being a covid+day and date release.

Edited December 27, 2023 by JustLurking

[cookie]

12 hours ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

Maybe the new Ghostbusters should move up to February? At least then the frozen/winter connection would be much stronger. Plus, that move could help theaters during the dry month.

I doubt it’d be ready by February, tbh. Production seemed like it was pretty rushed already.

Edited December 27, 2023 by cookie

[emoviefan]

5 hours ago, JustLurking said:

That doesn't make any sense whatsoever? Dune 1 is in no way a complete story that gives anyone "their fill".

 

There probably is a portion of the audience that found it too brainy and slow and won't return, but that has nothing to do on them having had their "fill" just disliking the film, and should hopefully be more than offset by newfound audience on streaming and just not being a covid+day and date release.

On top of that the DR Part 1 comparison makes no sense since that is the seventh movie in a franchise that had it's box office affected by bad scheduling not people having their fill.

 

[TwoMisfits]

16 hours ago, CJohn said:

My crazy prediction for Dune 2 is 90/305

 

I'm on the $250M+ DOM train...which M37 would say means I'm in the break $300M chain b/c you either go over $300 or under $200...but I like to wait on a trailer to really sky high:)...

[WrathOfHan]

10 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I have to agree with that Kung Fu Panda 4 prediction. That trailer did absolutely nothing for me, and Mike Mitchell's journeyman nature won't help it at all. Had the early rumours about the Puss 2 team handling it been true it would've stood a chance.

 

Yeah, there's really no appeal for adults who grew up on the film like myself. When I saw Wonka with my friend, he thought the trailer looked pretty meh, and I could sense it from other childless adults in the audience.

[SpiderByte]

14 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

dont want to talk about dune underperformance without having any idea as to what 1's non-covid, non-day and date gross might have been like

I think it would have done more but not an insane amount more. Maybe like +15 mil to the OW?

[Eric Lasagna]

April 5

The First Omen: This isn’t really the biggest horror franchise out there, and I doubt this is any good, but horror fans are a reliable one and there’s probably a good money shot in the trailer for it to not be a total embarrassment box office wise. 20/45 (2.25x)

[Eric Lasagna]

April 12

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire: Godzilla vs. Kong still crossed the century mark despite the odds stacked against it release-wise, and there’s enough of a fanbase for these Monsterverse movies that this should also get above the century mark too, even if the concept and marketing isn't as effective or memorable for obvious reasons. But considering how this franchise has never really been cream of the crop, only just barely. 45/110 (2.44x)

[Eric Lasagna]

April 26

Challengers: Not a nostalgic toy commercial, but Zendaya’s presence could make this perform a bit better than most. Just enough to get a double digit opening, which in this day and age, is commendable for small movies like these. 11/35 (3.18x)

 

Civil War: This is a legit wild card. I have no clue if this will be good or not, I don't know if A24's audience is big enough to justify the money spent here...let's just assume it opens slightly more than Challengers but makes way less. That feels like the right outcome. 13/30 (2.31x)

 

Unsung Hero: It's about some Christian music band or something? I dunno, I guess it'll do the usual Christian box office gross. 5/20 (4x)

[Eric Lasagna]

Wow. Only one movie will probably make 100M this movie. And none of the other movies are looking to do much either. Adam Aron might need to look for a new job once we get to this month.

[Grand Cine]

Only 4 Movies with the potentiel to be above the 100M Mark in the four months of the year . Yikes . May and June are much better but yeah 2024 will be a long crossing of the desert

[MysteryMovieMogul]

13 minutes ago, Eric Wonka said:

Civil War: This is a legit wild card. I have no clue if this will be good or not, I don't know if A24's audience is big enough to justify the money spent here...let's just assume it opens slightly more than Challengers but makes way less. That feels like the right outcome. 13/30 (2.31x)

I dread the release of this film. The trailer looks great, but in an American election year with the candidates we have, this just... I don't see much advertising done for this film, and I don't see theaters wanting a film called "Civil War" playing during primary season.

[interiorgatordecorator]

18 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

I dread the release of this film. The trailer looks great, but in an American election year with the candidates we have, this just... I don't see much advertising done for this film, and I don't see theaters wanting a film called "Civil War" playing during primary season.

 

you must be really excited about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice_(upcoming_film) then

 

considering that's its currently filming, wouldn't surprise if they were trying to position it as an October surprise 

Edited December 27, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[MysteryMovieMogul]

3 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

you must be really excited about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice_(upcoming_film) then

 

considering that's its currently filming, wouldn't surprise if they were trying to position that as an October surprise 

Damn it, I forgot about this film. Who is this for? Folks who think Adam McKay films aren't subtle enough?

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

35 minutes ago, Eric Wonka said:

Wow. Only one movie will probably make 100M this movie. And none of the other movies are looking to do much either. Adam Aron might need to look for a new job once we get to this month.

Adam Aron by the beginning of the summer:

[Speedorito]

25 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

I dread the release of this film. The trailer looks great, but in an American election year with the candidates we have, this just... I don't see much advertising done for this film, and I don't see theaters wanting a film called "Civil War" playing during primary season.

 

Dreading them as well. The advertising will be the media using them as outrage fuel. Hopefully they both flop, I don’t need to be lectured at for the third critical presidential election in a row.