Han and Eric's Doom and Gloom/Controversial Predictions of 2024

[emoviefan]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

May 24

 

Furiosa: Here we go, fellas. After Fury Road exceed expectations both quality-wise and at the box office, another entry into the Mad Max universe based on the film's breakout character has all the makings for a smash hit. WB is standing firm on going against Apes, which I don't anticipate to be too big of an issue as Furiosa already has the IMAX advantage. Furiosa has everything working in its favor, and I would be shocked if it finishes under Fury Road unadjusted. 70/87/210 (3x from 3 day/2.41x from 4 day)

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: If either sci-fi film will suffer from this showdown, it's Apes. Kingdom essential soft-reboots the last trilogy, leaving audiences without much of a hook to re-enter the franchise. War was subject to massive over-predicting back in 2017 following Dawn's overperformance and ended up being more frontloaded than many had hoped. I've gotten the trailer multiples times theatrically, and audiences never seem engaged with it. If I was a decision maker at Disney, I'd be moving this later in the summer to get away from Furiosa. 35/47/100 (2.86x from 3 day/2.13x from 4 day)

 

Garfield: The memes are already driving awareness with the young adult crowd, and kids will obviously want to see a Garfield movie over the summer. Easy money, folks. 30/40/120 (4x from 3 day/3x from 4 day)

Furiosa is moving. The Apes trailer said May 24th and Furiosa just said Summer 2024. Not sure why the assumption 5 months early that they will play a game of chicken to the end or something. Next week when the Town gets back to work from the holidays a lot of  stuff is going to happen. It will be the first time since the end of April things  will be at full strength with no labor strife or holidays to impede things. 

[Eric Prime]

July 3

Despicable Me 4: Reports are that they’re bringing back the bad guy from the first movie. It’s weird to say that Despicable Me is now old enough to do the legacy sequel thing and pull it off. But nostalgia is the only thing that sells, and the franchise is bigger than ever, especially with the 18-34s who are now the biggest audience sector, so I guess it will work out fine. 120/400 (3.33x)

[Eric Prime]

July 12

Project Artemis: Sony has miraculously found a modest romcom hit with Anyone But You despite having the worst ad campaign ever. So with bigger stars and hopefully better trailers, this seems like a rare non-NTC that could actually do okay, at least to the current dreadful standards comedy movies are dealing with. 15/55 (3.67x)

[Eric Prime]

July 19

Twisters: This is the biggest wildcard of the year. This could go sub-100 and utterly bomb, or be a 300+ juggernaut, and neither would surprise me. The lack of legacyquel nostalgia pandering will hurt it and the brand isn't necessarily the hottest thing right now, but it has a good cast and these kinds of disaster movies don't really exist anymore. It's kind of filling up a market that hasn't been fed in ages.

 

And while it's sad to see Lee Isaac Chung be swallowed into the evils of the blockbuster industrial complex, that could mean the movie's not that bad? This is dependent on a million factors, but I'm going to assume this has okay trailers and 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and does fine for what it is. 42/140 (3.33x)

[DAJK]

Love the controversial Deadpool prediction. Respectfully disagree but hey, this thread is living up to its title.

[Eric Prime]

July 26

Deadpool 3: People are still predicting big things for this, even after Marvel utterly imploded this year. But like...nah, I don’t buy that. Deadpool 3 is coming out a whopping 6 years after the last Deadpool movie. That’s an eternity in box office time. And at least the Guardians of the Galaxy popped up in other movies and had a holiday special to keep them fresh and in the conversation. Deadpool's been MIA, which only makes the uphill battle even harder. And while people are hyped for Wolverine, the X-Men movies were never Spider-Man grossers and Logan ended things perfectly for the character. Just feels crass to bring him back in a way it wasn’t for the Sony Spider-Men.

 

Add on all the Fox cameos for characters nobody cares about (Jennifer Garner’s Elektra returning is a big deal to nobody), and superhero movies being box office poison now, and this is going to be another disappointment for Marvel yet again. Superhero movies are dead. They should have stopped after Endgame. 90/215 (2.39x)

[Eric Prime]

Four movies eh? Just those? Boy, if only the studios actually paid their writers and actors, and the box office wouldn't suck (yes I know more movies will be slotted in lol. Gotta keep a bit going.)

[emoviefan]

6 minutes ago, Eric Wonka said:

July 26

Deadpool 3: People are still predicting big things for this, even after Marvel utterly imploded this year. But like...nah, I don’t buy that. Deadpool 3 is coming out a whopping 6 years after the last Deadpool movie. That’s an eternity in box office time. And at least the Guardians of the Galaxy popped up in other movies and had a holiday special to keep them fresh and in the conversation. Deadpool's been MIA, which only makes the uphill battle even harder. And while people are hyped for Wolverine, the X-Men movies were never Spider-Man grossers and Logan ended things perfectly for the character. Just feels crass to bring him back in a way it wasn’t for the Sony Spider-Men.

 

Add on all the Fox cameos for characters nobody cares about (Jennifer Garner’s Elektra returning is a big deal to nobody), and superhero movies being box office poison now, and this is going to be another disappointment for Marvel yet again. Superhero movies are dead. They should have stopped after Endgame. 90/215 (2.39x)

Yeah no on this prediction.

[MovieMan89]

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

no lol

Hey, my super doom and gloom holiday predictions back in October basically all came true except BOSS and Wonka (and tbf I specified they would need bad audience WOM to go that low). I don’t put anything past box office right now, especially with sequel mania disease that is 2024. Hollywood is salting on thin ice with audiences with most of these movies. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Eric Wonka said:

July 26

Deadpool 3: People are still predicting big things for this, even after Marvel utterly imploded this year. But like...nah, I don’t buy that. Deadpool 3 is coming out a whopping 6 years after the last Deadpool movie. That’s an eternity in box office time. And at least the Guardians of the Galaxy popped up in other movies and had a holiday special to keep them fresh and in the conversation. Deadpool's been MIA, which only makes the uphill battle even harder. And while people are hyped for Wolverine, the X-Men movies were never Spider-Man grossers and Logan ended things perfectly for the character. Just feels crass to bring him back in a way it wasn’t for the Sony Spider-Men.

 

Add on all the Fox cameos for characters nobody cares about (Jennifer Garner’s Elektra returning is a big deal to nobody), and superhero movies being box office poison now, and this is going to be another disappointment for Marvel yet again. Superhero movies are dead. They should have stopped after Endgame. 90/215 (2.39x)

 

I don't hate this prediction...see, I can agree on a few:).

 

That said, 1st trailer will be everything.  If it's off-putting to women and seals a 70+/30- gender breakdown, this is likely gonna fall somewhere in the 200s...HOWEVER, if it someone brings that gender back, it could see much better things...

[Flip]

2 hours ago, Eric Wonka said:

July 26

Deadpool 3: People are still predicting big things for this, even after Marvel utterly imploded this year. But like...nah, I don’t buy that. Deadpool 3 is coming out a whopping 6 years after the last Deadpool movie. That’s an eternity in box office time. And at least the Guardians of the Galaxy popped up in other movies and had a holiday special to keep them fresh and in the conversation. Deadpool's been MIA, which only makes the uphill battle even harder. And while people are hyped for Wolverine, the X-Men movies were never Spider-Man grossers and Logan ended things perfectly for the character. Just feels crass to bring him back in a way it wasn’t for the Sony Spider-Men.

 

Add on all the Fox cameos for characters nobody cares about (Jennifer Garner’s Elektra returning is a big deal to nobody), and superhero movies being box office poison now, and this is going to be another disappointment for Marvel yet again. Superhero movies are dead. They should have stopped after Endgame. 90/215 (2.39x)

I’m with you on legs, but I can’t see opening weekend being that low

[Grand Cine]

I don't agree with the prediction of Deadpool 3 and Despicable me 4

 

I'm more a 150M/375M for Deadpool 3 and a 70M/250M for DM4

 

BUT for Deadpool 3 , the first trailer will be very important , if the social reaction are really good maybe a breakout is possible  ( which i think he has a good chance to be ) and if it's meh at this point it's a little worrisome and again superhero fatigue and maybe the beginning of the end of the MCU

[WittyUsername]

I myself am not convinced DP3 will be as big as fans are hoping, but I don’t know if I believe it’ll open below $100 million. 

[Cmasterclay]

3 hours ago, DAJK said:

Love the controversial Deadpool prediction. Respectfully disagree but hey, this thread is living up to its title.

How

 

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, Flip said:

I’m with you on legs, but I can’t see opening weekend being that low

I’m with him on the OW and legs provided it’s not a real WOM pleaser. Juts look at the trajectory of DP1 to DP2 and now throw it in the blender of major CBM fatigue that wasn’t a thing at all when those two came out. DP3 has to be a NWH WOM hit or lots of people are going to be very disappointed in the box office. 

[Eric Prime]

39 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

How

 

I thought Deadpool was coming out on July 19...whoops.

[WrathOfHan]

June 7

 

Ballerina: Ana girl, you were great in Blonde! Lionsgate is attempting to build out the John Wick universe now that Keanu is done, but so far, The Continental came and went with minimal buzz. A Len Wiseman film that was script doctor'd by Emerald Fennell doesn't inspire much confidence, but Keanu's presence in the film along with Ana's star power will lead to a reasonable opening. If the film is bad, legs will collapse as Chapter 4 had pretty meh legs. 30/80 (2.67x)

 

The Watchers: We will find out how closely Ishana Shyamalan takes after her father. Shyamalan's name will be all over marketing which will help the film's prospects. It's hard to project this one without a trailer, but I'm assuming it does ok for its size. 12/30 (2.5x)

[WrathOfHan]

June 14

 

Inside Out 2: Inside Out was one of the last big original box office hits for Pixar almost 9 years ago (damn) and is often ranked high for the studio. A Pixar sequel will be met with skepticism, especially for something like Inside Out that did not command another entry. Buzz and awareness are already strong, and it has a few weeks to itself before Despicable Me is out. While 300M feels like a stretch right now, I do think it'll solidly end up in the 200s. 70/245 (3.5x)

[WrathOfHan]

June 21

 

The Bikeriders: Following a decent launch at Telluride, Disney completely abandoned the film amidst the SAG strike and recouped money by selling it to Focus. I ultimately think Focus will handle the film much better than Disney was, but I'm not drastically changing my opening weekend expectations versus the initial December plan. By having the summer slot with an emptier schedule, legs will be good going into July. 10/35 (3.5x)

[WrathOfHan]

June 28

 

A Quiet Place: Day One: A Quiet Place remains a consistent horror franchise for the current cinematic climate without any attempts to imitate or copy the series' basic premise. While I think a drop is coming, the three year gap from Part II should help minimize its decrease. Lupita will be a draw, and Michael Sarnoski is one of the most promising new filmmakers following Pig. If the quality is as good as it seems on paper, legs could be very strong. 40/130 (3.25x)

 

Horizon: An American Saga Chapter One: Kevin Costner's experiment is coming at the right time now that he's out of Yellowstone. Similar to The Strangers, WB is releasing both chapters of Horizon within two months of each other. As a straight western from Costner, I think there's a roof for how willing current audiences will turn out. Older audiences still aren't back in full force, and this is a project I doubt the 18-35 crowd gravitates towards heavily. I'll stay low for now, and if I'm wrong, it'll be a pleasant surprise. 20/60 (3x)