Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

[Daxtreme]

26 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

 

The spice must flow

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Without EA, around 9x IM right? 
 

No huge signs of frontloaded franchise. I’m fully expecting second weekend drop to be in the low 40’s

yes. Somewhere from low 9s to 80.5m is great. with Imax selling extremely well. Look at 3PM show outside summer at lincoln sq.  I am thinking 7m+ Monday(just a guess).

 

[HummingLemon496]

It would end at $235M domestic if it does 2/3rds of The Batman from here

[TomThomas]

2 hours ago, Kon said:

I mean, there are many movies in theaters pretty forgotten too. So, I'm not sure the "effort" to see movies in theaters is really the reason why these have cultural impact.

We don't have a single streaming movie that's gonna be remembered as a classic or at least cult film. Most, if not all, are forgotten next week. So traditional release does matter, even if the movie is still gonna be forgotten.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

7M monday would be a great result. 

 

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

It would end at $235M domestic if it does 2/3rds of The Batman from here

I think 250M is doable, it’ll depend if it’ll survive once other movies start to drop. 
 

I think it’ll pass 200M before Ghostbusters. If it survive Ghostbuster and GxK it can try 250

 

IMAX can help as well, it won’t shock me if they prioritize Dune over Ghostbusters or Godzilla, splitting showtimes between them.

[von Kenni]

Real preview numbers based on WB estimates today and how accurate MTC1 was with Dune

 

WB estimates not surprisingly corrected Sat number a bit down to lower the drop which eventually was 24.6% for Sunday which was in my 80% confidence area seen at the bottom table from yesterday but because of using the inaccurately reported Sat numbers my lower end was at $82.7M instead of $82.5M which it would have been with correctly reported Sat number. All-in-all, math is beautiful and MTC1 turned out to be very accurate but reported numbers were slightly off and they most likely rounded a lot the preview numbers from $11.47M (+-0.1M) to $12M.

 

Today reported numbers:

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
Feb 29, 2024	P	$12,000,000		3,400	$3,529	$12,000,000
Mar 1, 2024	1	$32,150,000		4,071	$7,897	$32,150,000	1
Mar 2, 2024	1	$28,700,000	-11%	4,071	$7,050	$60,850,000	2
Mar 3, 2024	1	$21,650,000	-25%	4,071	$5,318	$82,500,000	3

 

Using the WB Sat estimate, MTC1 was just 0.9% off which reveals $20.68M true Friday (+-0.15M) and gives exactly the reported Sunday numbers with 81% walkups pace compared to Sat (I had the low-end at 80%), i.e. 19% worse. Reasons for this can be:

 

• Naturally less walkups for later showtimes in the evening due to the next day being a workday.
• Saturday might have been somewhat frontloaded (amazing 39% jump!) due to people (older and families) preferring to see it on Saturday rather than Friday evening after a long work week plus PLFs were more available throughout the Saturday than cramming everything to Friday evening.
• Other? --please chip in, especially the experienced trackers on this forum, but anyone else too

 

All-in-all the Sunday number was off by $1.15M based on WB estimates which wasn't a surprise even if in the end it didn't reach my and Keysersoze's anticipated $2-3M correction partly due to the over-estimated industry numbers on Sat and Fri+Previews and partly with walkups pace hitting the lower-end of what was expected.

 

Even though I might have lost in my personal bet of the high-end $85M in that 80% confidence level (even though they were based on the industry estimates too) my cool-headedness a bit, I feel good about how it turned out after they corrected the numbers hitting the low-end and how MTC1 was very consistent in predicting the outcomes and revealing the walkup pace.

 

 

 

 

Yesterday's estimates using the reported industry estimates that we now know were slightly off as a comparison

 

 

 

[HummingLemon496]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think 250M is doable, it’ll depend if it’ll survive once other movies start to drop. 
 

I think it’ll pass 200M before Ghostbusters. If it survive Ghostbuster and GxK it can try 250

 

IMAX can help as well, it won’t shock me if they prioritize Dune over Ghostbusters or Godzilla, splitting showtimes between them.

$250M domestic would mean $550M ish worldwide which is actually pretty blegh on a $190M budget

[Starphanluke]

4 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

$250M domestic would mean $550M ish worldwide which is actually pretty blegh on a $190M budget

China is tracking to do maybe $50m ish total as well. With WOM and general lack of competition, it should get to $600m.

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, Starphanluke said:

China is tracking to do maybe $50m ish total as well. With WOM and general lack of competition, it should get to $600m.

True, forgot about China

[keysersoze123]

Dune has below markets left to open. It should add something non significant for sure. China PS is very promising. Its ahead of all 2023 Hollywood movies except Meg which was a co production. 

 

Quote

China March 8, 2024
United Arab Emirates March 14, 2024
Australia March 14, 2024
Bahrain March 14, 2024
Ecuador March 14, 2024
Egypt March 14, 2024
Bulgaria March 15, 2024
Japan March 15, 2024
Lithuania March 15, 2024
South Africa March 15, 2024
Kuwait April 11, 2024

 

[lorddemaxus]

15 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

$250M domestic would mean $550M ish worldwide which is actually pretty blegh on a $190M budget

Why would the movie not increase from Dune 1 OS?? It's looking at a $400 mil-ish gross OS at least.

[ando]

Yeah OS looks more likely to finish in the $400-450M range. 

[JustLurking]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune has below markets left to open. It should add something non significant for sure. China PS is very promising. Its ahead of all 2023 Hollywood movies except Meg which was a co production. 

 

 

Australia did open, IMDB is wrong.

[TMP]

6 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Why would the movie not increase from Dune 1 OS?? It's looking at a $400 mil-ish gross OS at least.

The dude you’re replying to has a serious case of “reddit-brain”; best to just not engage

[HummingLemon496]

I was just going off of the current DOM/OS split off of $250M domestic I didn't realize there were more markets left ^ @TMP 

Edited March 4 by HummingLemon496

[HummingLemon496]

10 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Why would the movie not increase from Dune 1 OS?? It's looking at a $400 mil-ish gross OS at least.

Ok I was wrong I was going off of the current DOM/OS split I didn't realize there were more markets left to open 

[JustLurking]

3 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I was just going off of the current DOM/OS split off of $250M domestic I didn't realize there were more markets left ^ @TMP 

Even just going off current markets. Dune is strongest in Europe which generally tends to play more leggy than US.

[TJ327]

5 hours ago, Last Man Standing said:

Name 3 culuturally impactful Del Toro movies. 

- Children of Men

- The Shape of Water

- Pacific Rim

A movie doesn’t need to gross a billion to be culturally impactful. Hell it doesn’t even need to be profitable initially. Blade Runner is one of the most impactful sci-fi films of all time and it BARELY limped to a small profit in the 80s.

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, Starphanluke said:

I’m seeing the narrative pop up online that since this debuted similar to Oppenheimer, it will also gross $900m+. Whole lotta people are going to be disappointed.

 

I still see it ending in the $600-700m range, which is a great result. Of course it would be great to see Dune go higher, but you have to keep those expectations in check.

 

Also, Deadline is sticking with the $50m prediction for KFP4 which feels… optimistic.

 

Every Xfinity subscriber in their rewards program could get a free ticket or 2 free tickets, depending how long they've been a subscriber, redeemable on Fandango for up to $15 (buyer pays any overage).

 

There are 31.42M subscribers, all eligible for the rewards program (but you figure some don't bother).  That's a crapton of free ticket redemptions possible floating around that beats anything Angel Studios ever had floating around...you assume almost all are never redeemed...but then again - kid movie sequel...and free is way cheaper than the TMobile/Atom $5 tickets...

Edited March 4 by TwoMisfits