Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Fincher seems to really like working at Netflix tho

I’m sure Netflix gives him pretty great salary & bonuses along with better creative freedom than the traditional studios. But it’s a mistake to end up with his movies buried on streaming. 

[MightyDargon]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

I’m sure Netflix gives him pretty great salary & bonuses along with better creative freedom than the traditional studios. But it’s a mistake to end up with his movies buried on streaming. 

They're not "buried" if he's getting creative freedom to do R rated work the studios clearly aren't interested in.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, MightyDargon said:

They're not "buried" if he's getting creative freedom to do R rated work the studios clearly aren't interested in.

You think the studios had no interest in The Killer? I strongly doubt it. 

[MightyDargon]

4 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

You think the studios had no interest in The Killer? I strongly doubt it. 

Considering they don't care about R rated films unless they're dirt cheap or feature Deadpool, yes, I do.

[AniNate]

It's as much on Fincher as Netflix I think, he's been drinking the streaming kool aid.

[leoh]

5 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Ridley Scott still gets $200m blank checks despite not having made a hit in 11 years. He has even more projects lined up like the Bee Gees Biopic and another action movie.

 

Name recognition goes a long way in Hollywood.

200M?????

 

man he’s just gotten a 360M+ blank check lol

 

and it’s not from Sony or Universal or Disney which have way bigger groups backing their risks, it was a 360M+ blank check given by P A R A M O U N T 😱

Edited March 4 by leoh

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

52 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Fincher seems to really like working at Netflix tho

He also extended his deal with Netflix so he’s there until 2027 at least.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

50 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Ridley Scott still gets $200m blank checks despite not having made a hit in 11 years. He has even more projects lined up like the Bee Gees Biopic and another action movie.

 

Name recognition goes a long way in Hollywood.

The Martian is from 2015 and made $630m worldwide.

 

As an awards drama released in 2021, House of Gucci making $153m worldwide is nothing to sneeze at. If HoG had been held to 2022, I think it would have been boosted at least another $50m WW.

 

But it's probably not wrong to say Ridley's movies are more miss than hit  these days, at least financially. Napoleon had a decent start for what it is in this era, audiences just didn't like it enough so the legs suffered.

 

 

[Bob Train]

5 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

The Martian is from 2015 and made $630m worldwide.

 

As an awards drama released in 2021, House of Gucci making $153m worldwide is nothing to sneeze at. If HoG had been held to 2022, I think it would have been boosted at least another $50m WW.

 

But it's probably not wrong to say Ridley's movies are more miss than hit  these days, at least financially. Napoleon had a decent start for what it is in this era, audiences just didn't like it enough so the legs suffered.

 

 

I was referring to The Martian I just forgot how many years ago it was

 

Point is, even after all his historical epics have not exactly been hits like Exodus, Last Duel, Napoleon, etc. He still gets massive budgets solely based off his name. I’m sure after all those movies flopped people said he would surely never get that kind of budget again, but he does.

 

When KOTFM and Napoleon released, a lot of people were saying Apple would never put out these kinds of huge budgeted flicks again, but they still have Project Artemis and Wolfs scheduled for this year. Point is, there are other factors that go into how these decisions are made than just our limited understanding of the box office.

[AniNate]

2 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Something to consider: Dune Part Two was announced the Tuesday after Part One’s release. Messiah is almost certainly happening now (there’s been rumors that it has been greenlit for months), but will they hold off on an announcement until Villeneuve is ready to go with it, since he wants some time to breathe/do another movie?

 

I sure hope so. We all know it'll happen eventually, but there's not much point in an official announcement until they're actually turning the cogs.

 

Also,

Spoiler

there's a 12 year time jump in Messiah, so it should take longer anyway.

 

[vale9001]

5 hours ago, MightyDargon said:

Absolutely no one who actually greenlights movies cares about admits, it's all about gross and revenue. If admits were king Mario would trump everything last year.

 

I'm not sure Mario sold more tickets than Barbie when Barbie hadn't IMAX at all and also and important quote of children- Kids. 

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, excel1 said:

 

Scorsesee clearly isn't an overly compelling draw these days, have to think the days of his getting blank checks are 100% over.

 

 

1000%. The film is boring. There is not much action at all. All the big money shots were in the trailer. Butler is in the film for 5 min. Chalamet is wooden as a wall. Zendaya is the only one bringing any real energy, though their romance is historic levels of bad, zero chemistry between them at all. 

 

Feel like this is aa more widely held opinion than some are being open about bc they don't want to be "that guy" or "the girl" but there is no emotional hook to this film at all, legit. zero. 

Holy shit man, it's ok to be in the minority opinion on disliking a film. There is no grand conspiracy of Dune haters pretending to like it to look deep. Even great films don't click with everyone, just move on to the next one.

Edited March 4 by JustLurking

[Jiffy]

EC saying $82.25m weekend. Would have expected a better Sunday, but I guess that's not out of trend for this time of year.

[vale9001]

2 hours ago, excel1 said:

 

Scorsesee clearly isn't an overly compelling draw these days, have to think the days of his getting blank checks are 100% over.

 

 

1000%. The film is boring. There is not much action at all. All the big money shots were in the trailer. Butler is in the film for 5 min. Chalamet is wooden as a wall. Zendaya is the only one bringing any real energy, though their romance is historic levels of bad, zero chemistry between them at all. 

 

Feel like this is aa more widely held opinion than some are being open about bc they don't want to be "that guy" or "the girl" but there is no emotional hook to this film at all, legit. zero. 

 

 

The movie is not even that acclaimed by critics lol 

 

So this theory people are faking they like it cause the have to like this 100/100 metacritic movie Is so pointless 😅 Mission impossible 7 has better vote on metacritic (and i really don't know how cause It's a very mediocre 6/10 movie btw) and the average vote for people since the start is just worse than critics.

 

Like Bohemian or joker are almost panned but they are very loved by audiences. Audiences don't care about critics. Actually if something when a movie is too acclaimed there is too much expectation and can be more negative than positive. 

Edited March 4 by vale9001

[dallas]

 

 

[leoh]

6 hours ago, von Kenni said:

Dune weekend actuals and Sunday estimates based on MTC1

 

1) I compared reported Sat actuals to MTC1 estimate and found out that MTC1 numbers need to be adjusted 1.4% upward.

 

2) Using the adjustment we can deduct the true Friday to be $20.79M and Previews+EA $11.56M (they rounded it to $12M).

 

3) Based on ATP change from Dune 2 Sat previews to actuals I estimated Sunday ATP to be 1.5% lower than Saturday if the relative walkups pace is the same. If it is lower, I adjusted the ATP slightly upward and likewise downward if it is higher.

 

4) Relative walkups pace compared to Dune 2 Saturday.

 

5) OW estimates paced on different walkups paces (Sunday estimates above). The reported $20.3M Sunday would need worse walkups than on Friday. I see midpoint around 90%+ walkups pace and highly likely (80% confidence level) that we're looking at

 

$83-85M OW and $84M with $22.8M Sunday -21% drop as the midpoint

 

$83M OW would mean -24.5% Sun drop

$85M OW -17.6% drop

 

Dear @von Kenni I love your stats, you’re one of the best doing this here, but don’t set up people to deception, there’s no way Dune could get a 84M/85M OW given all the circumstances rn (top 5 movies dropped ~40%+ from Saturday this weekend). Dune 81.5M OW is already an over performance from a 80M best case scenario. Even if it over performs again this Sunday it won’t go much further than 82M.
 

 

 

Edited March 4 by leoh

[filmlover]

The night shows are likely slowing down quite a bit due to how long it is + people having work tomorrow. Still a great Sunday for it.

[ThomasNicole]

28 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

 

The movie is not even that acclaimed by critics lol 

 

So this theory people are faking they like it cause the have to like this 100/100 metacritic movie Is so pointless 😅 Mission impossible 7 has better vote on metacritic (and i really don't know how cause It's a very mediocre 6/10 movie btw) and the average vote for people since the start is just worse than critics.

 

Like Bohemian or joker are almost panned but they are very loved by audiences. Audiences don't care about critics. Actually if something when a movie is too acclaimed there is too much expectation and can be more negative than positive. 

Dune was sitting with 81 or 82 on MC with the universal acclaim logo and everything until 2 days ago but someone give it a very awful grade which brings it down quite a lot, to 79 a think

But yeah it doesn’t matter, the reviews for Dune 1 and 2 aren’t ridiculously different but audience perception clearly are.

 

[von Kenni]

49 minutes ago, leoh said:

Dear @von Kenni I love your stats, you’re one of the best doing this here, but don’t set up people to deception, there’s no way Dune could get a 84M/85M OW given all the circumstances rn (top 5 movies dropped ~40%+ from Saturday this weekend). Dune 81.5M OW is already an over performance from a 80M best case scenario. Even if it over performs again this Sunday it won’t go much further than 82M.
 

 

 

 

I shouldn't even reply to your misleading and deceiving post but @Daxtreme had such a perfect description of what you have been consistently doing that speaks volumes:

 

----

 

Concern trolls say they are fans of something, "oh I so want it to be good, but..."

 

The "but" is key here.

 

Quote

A concern troll is a person who participates in a debate posing as an actual or potential ally who simply has some concerns they need answered before they will ally themselves with a cause. In reality they are a critic.

 

They're always "concerned" about the success of something but "hey, I'm a big fan, I'm just concerned!"  Then if you stalk their messages you realize that the only coherent line of thought throughout is that they actually want it to fail. AKA, the opposite of what they're saying. They only act like an ally because being an upfront hater is ill-perceived, especially in close-knit communities, so concern trolling it is (it's more subtle, harder to spot)

 

[leoh]

48 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

 

I shouldn't even reply to your misleading and deceiving post but @Daxtreme had such a perfect description of what you have been consistently doing that speaks volumes:

 

----

 

Concern trolls say they are fans of something, "oh I so want it to be good, but..."

 

The "but" is key here.

 

 

They're always "concerned" about the success of something but "hey, I'm a big fan, I'm just concerned!"  Then if you stalk their messages you realize that the only coherent line of thought throughout is that they actually want it to fail. AKA, the opposite of what they're saying. They only act like an ally because being an upfront hater is ill-perceived, especially in close-knit communities, so concern trolling it is (it's more subtle, harder to spot)

 

 

I mean I have already read that a couple of times, of course. It’s a bit funny ngl lol because I LOVE French cinema and specially the Deleuzian conception of cinema shared by many French filmmakers. Although born in Quebec (French speaking Canada), Denis Villeneuve conception of cinema is purely Deleuzian (he has already talked about this, obviously indirectly, in a recent interview). And I would say Dune 2 is the biggest representation of Deleuzian cinema ever produced. So it’s a bit funny to think some people may actually believe I hate Dune.

 

I have just been arguing Dune couldn’t go much further than 80M ow (which I called many times best case scenario).
I mean I was always just trying to be realistic, since the first talks about the 1 billion possibility started after that famous Variety article. Some weeks ago there were people believing in 100M OW. I was always opposed to these projections, and so some people may have misunderstood it.    

Edited March 4 by leoh