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MightyDargon

Weekend 4/19-21: ABIGAIL 1 mil previews

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Box Office Pro really screwed the pooch with that 20-25M prediction for Abigail. 😂

 

Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office
April 19-21, 2024

1. Abigail
Universal Pictures | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $20 – $25M
Showtime Marketshare (US): 17%

Pros:

  • So far critics are relatively positive about the film, which is hovering around 80% on Rotten Tomatoes. Folks in the horror community are praising the film’s humor and especially its grand guignol level of blood and gore, assuring that the genre audience will likely come out in spades for this one. 
  • When it comes to fright flicks, the genre is always the star. That said, the cast is stacked with horror heavyweights who also boast youth appeal, including Melissa Barrera (Scream franchise), Kathryn Newton (Freaky, Lisa Frankenstein), and Dan Stevens (The Guest, Vamps). The latter has extra heat right now from his leading man role in recent blockbuster Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire. 
  • Directors Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett (aka Radio Silence) have an excellent track record after Ready or Not and the two most recent Scream movies. Like James Wan or Christopher Landon, they know how to deftly combine humor and scares with mass audience appeal. 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

The holds for this keep getting better. 

 

 

 

 

 

I think the Amblin-y rebranding of the franchise is partly paying off here, as it's probably the second best option for families looking to take their kids to the theater after KFP4. 

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11 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

 

 

 

The holds for this keep getting better. 

 

 

 

 


 

this is why franchises are more valuable to Hollywood. A shitty Ghostbusters movie still made 100M while trying something new would probably only get them 20M

Edited by John Marston
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I know for a fact Ungentlemanly Warfare would have (at least slightly) over-indexed in Canada. Any British-esque movie, especially those that target an older white crowd, tend to do pretty well here compared to their domestic openings. 
 

The reason I bring this up is, had it opened in Canada, it probably would have opened higher than Abigail. Pretty sure no one saw that one coming.

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Yeah this weekend was not good overall but Civil War held pretty decently all things considered and could have been much worse and the holdovers all held pretty well. The openers are where the ball was dropped but even that I put the blame on the movies themselves just not being appealing enough-Abigail or being dumped by the studio -Ministry or being niche -Spy XFamily.

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8 minutes ago, John Marston said:

this is why franchised are more valuable to Hollywood. A shitty Ghostbusters movie still made 100M while trying something new would probably only get them 20M

 

It cost more than Monkey Man, Civil War and Abigail combined and will still lose money

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Just now, Spidey Freak said:

 

It cost more than Monkey Man, Civil War and Abigail combined and will still lose money

None of those movies can make money from the legacy movies shooting up to the top of the charts again or merchandising. Also something like Monkey Man had a large amount spent on marketing. 

 

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Deadline calling Civil War's 56% drop a "great hold" is hilarious. Adult-centered movies have the most legs. A 56% drop is passable at best especially with weak ass competition. 

Edited by Flopped
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3 minutes ago, Flopped said:

Deadline calling Civil War's 56% drop a "great hold" is hilarious. Adult-centered movies have the most legs. A 56% drop is passable at best especially with weak ass competition. 

Civil War is an exception here, not only because it is very fan-driven, being an A24 Alex Garland picture, but also because of its highly polarizing and volatile nature. Under that context, that drop seems like a miracle.

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Another under 10M opener for Lionsgate. How are these folks still alive? Someone needs to stop them. Theaters need these movies to get actual marketing campaigns.

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8 minutes ago, Flopped said:

Deadline calling Civil War's 56% drop a "great hold" is hilarious. Adult-centered movies have the most legs. A 56% drop is passable at best especially with weak ass competition. 

No this is a good not a great hold for a movie with a B- CS and that is fairly divisive. Just because it's a adult movie  means nothing.Plenty of adult movies have terrible legs if they are not loved by audiences.

Edited by emoviefan
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3 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Civil War is an exception here, not only because it is very fan-driven, being an A24 Alex Garland picture, but also because of its highly polarizing and volatile nature. Under that context, that drop seems like a miracle.


What's polarizing about it? It takes no political stance, it's the Top Gun Maverick of thrillers. 

What's volatile about it? I just watched a man set himself on fire on Twitter, the real world is much horrifying than anything in that movie. 

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Civil War second weekend was just ok and standard but stronger than the WOM poll suggest. 56% drop isn't much better than KoTFM when that movie face a 80m opener in the second weekend.

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