Weekend Numbers | estimates | 15.01M CHALLENGERS | 7.73M UNSUNG HERO | 7.22M GODZILLA×KONG: TNE

[Eric Loves Rey]

Want to make things light and delay the inevitable doom and gloom that's sure to come this weekend, so I'm gonna lock in my top 10 movies for the summer, so we have a fun thing to talk about.

 

1. Despicable Me 4: 415M

2. Inside Out 2: 400M

3. Deadpool 3: 335M

4. Twisters: 205M

5. Bad Boys: Ride or Die: 180M

6. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: 160M

7. Garfield: 145M

8. Fall Guy: 140M

9. IF: 135M

10. A Quiet Place: Day One: 120M

 

Furiosa I sadly see bombing with about 95M and get labeled the biggest bomb of the summer. Alien Romulus probably about 85-95M, which would be great for a niche franchise dealing with tons of poorly-recieved entries. Fly Me to the Moon and Horizon will probably do somewhere around the 65-95M range movies of their kind do nowadays. I think Borderlands is still a big deal, so though it's probably just a fans-only thing, it can still do a fine enough 60M or whatever. The Watchers and Trap have good breakout horror concepts, but original horror and Shyamalan in particular aren't in great spots at the moment, so we'll see with those.

 

And hey, as the resident complainer that original movies are dying and people only want NTCs and whatever, I do have Fall Guy and IF beating the 120M ceiling non-big IP movies generally hit. I actually think Fall Guy and Apes are a lot better positioned than you think, since they are the only PG-13 blockbuster movies for weeks. If you want to exclude Quiet Place for being more horror than action, the next big PG-13 movie after that is...Twisters. A whopping 10 weeks between that and Planet of the Apes. That's unheard of for a summer movie season, and both those films can benefit, barring any disastrous reception.

 

This is a lowkey, but hopefully still fun and chill summer for all of us. I dunno.

[Maggie]

@Eric Duncan Reasonable predictions. I still hope Horizon breaks out with 150M

[AniNate]

Low-key maybe, I dunno about fun. Vibes here are typically "growth or bust", and sometimes even "more growth or bust". With everyone putting Fall Guy on the pedestal of being the savior of non-known IP cinema can't say I'm really optimistic about positive energy being spread here. Just hoping enough faith remains by the time the legit good-looking fall season rolls around.

[AJG]

My wife saw Challengers and said the critic that called it “the sexiest movie of the year” might’ve just been really horny…

[AniNate]

To be fair there hasn't been a whole lot of competition

 

Maybe Love Lies Bleeding but no one saw that

[Cmasterclay]

There was plenty of appealing product this month with strong reviews, casual non-event moviegoing is just dead. In 2015 Civil War would have done 40m/120, Challengers would have done 25 then legged to 120 with WOM, and both Abigail and Ministry do at least 50m domestic. You can't convince me otherwise. I am as sure of those things as I am the sun will come out tomorrow. Not going to pretend it was because of bad product or marketing anymore. That world is just dead.

 

That said, I think there will be plenty of big blockbusters hits over the rest of the year, and a solid, deep bottom class of 20-40m grossers too. It's the movies that make between 50m and 150m that are dying off. Horrific month for those kind of flicks.

 

 

[AniNate]

Box Office: Zendaya's 'Challengers' Eyes $15 Million Opening Week (deadline.com)

 

Midday update up

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[TwoMisfits]

"Amazon MGM Studios’ Challengers is looking at $6.2M today (that includes the near $2M previews) which will get the movie to $15M at 3,477 theaters...

In second is Lionsgate/Kingdom Story’s Unsung Hero with $3.4M-$3.9M today, and $7M-$9M for the weekend at 2,832.

Legendary/Warner Bros.’ fifth weekend of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire is in third at 3,312 locations with $1.7M today, and $7M for the 3-day, -27%, for a running total of $181.5M.

Fourth is the third frame of A24’s Civil War at 3,518 sites with $1.8M today, and $6.2M, -44%, for a running cume by Sunday of $55.3M.

Fifth goes to Universal’s Radio Silence directed horror movie Abigail in 3,393 theaters with a Friday of $1.35M, 3-day of $4.5M, -56%, and ten-day of $18M.

Bill Skarsgård in ‘Boy Kills World‘Courtesy of TIFF

Roadside Attractions’ Boy Kills World is coming in at $900K today, $1.9M for the weekend at 1,993 theaters."

 

From Deadline's early numbers - https://deadline.com/2024/04/box-office-challengers-zendaya-1235896116/

[AniNate]

6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

There was plenty of appealing product this month with strong reviews, casual non-event moviegoing is just dead. In 2015 Civil War would have done 40m/120, Challengers would have done 25 then legged to 120 with WOM, and both Abigail and Ministry do at least 50m domestic. You can't convince me otherwise. I am as sure of those things as I am the sun will come out tomorrow.

 

I mean it's really hard to say that for sure given for most of these directors, these are still gonna be the biggest non-IP work to their names.  I don't think anyone would've predicted an Alex Garland movie to do $100mil+ whatever its concept was, and in fact even $70mil was still considered a stretch here up until the movie's first reviews came out.

 

Remains to be seen what kind of WOM Challengers will have. It does seem like it has its fans but also it's definitely not a group night out thing the way something like Bridesmaids or Hangover were.

 

On a related note, looks like Civil War having a pretty solid hold this weekend based on the Deadline estimates. Wonder if EEAAO is still an achievable milestone. It lost all its PLF this week so a sub 45% hold would be pretty remarkable.

[TwoMisfits]

So, OT, but Deadline reported Paw Patrol 2 was the 10th most profitable movie last year...dang!

[Cmasterclay]

5 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

I mean it's really hard to say that for sure given for most of these directors, these are still gonna be the biggest non-IP work to their names.  I don't think anyone would've predicted an Alex Garland movie to do $100mil+ whatever its concept was, and in fact even $70mil was still considered a stretch here up until the movie's first reviews came out.

 

Remains to be seen what kind of WOM Challengers will have. It does seem like it has its fans but also it's definitely not a group night out thing the way something like Bridesmaids or Hangover were.

 

On a related note, looks like Civil War having a pretty solid hold this weekend based on the Deadline estimates. Wonder if EEAAO is still an achievable milestone. It lost all its PLF this week so a sub 45% hold would be pretty remarkable.

Bridesmaid and the Hangover wouldn't even hit 50m in today's climate. That's the thing. No way those movies do anything. Honestly, I don't know why I even do this anymore. I'm sorry. It's just too bleak.

Edited April 26 by Cmasterclay

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

A mmf threesome tennis movie was always gonna be a tough sell. I think 15m is pretty amazing considering what it is. But that budget and marketing is going to be rough.

[James]

4 hours ago, Gokai Red said:

Just a friendly reminder that it was this weekend 5 years ago (same calendar configuration too) that Avengers Endgame premiered and broke a bunch of records. I wonder when we'll get a movie that can top that opening weekend, which is currently the longest held opening weekend record. 

I bet the inevitable Harry Potter sequel, with another 5-10 years of inflation, will do it. 

[AniNate]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Bridesmaid and the Hangover wouldn't even hit 50m in today's climate. That's the thing. No way those movies do anything. Honestly, I don't know why I even do this anymore. I'm sorry. It's just too bleak.

 

I consider myself realistically bearish on the immediate slate of movies, but I agree, I really don't really see a point in dwelling on woulda/couldas. This is the situation we're in right now and this is how much the movies are making. I prefer to focus on the fact that after the summer there is a pretty robust looking movie slate, and I'm sure there will be a lot more mid-budget auteur movies as well that we can proceed to dramatically pin all our hopes for the future of cinema on.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

3 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

saw the trailer boy kill world trailer when i saw Civil War. it looks like the MOST annoying movie ever made. just the trailer was like watching a bad stand up bomb for 2.5 minutes completely embarrassing. `

Sounds right given that Brett Gelman is in it.

[John Marston]

Hollywood is also spending too much. A movie like Challengers should cost 20M. 

[Krissykins]

Let’s not forget that Air opened last year from the same studio and cost $70-90m to make with a lot of big names and excellent reviews. It opened to $14m from a slightly wider release. 

 

If anyone was parading that film as a hit, then they need to do the same with Challengers. 
 

Anyway, just back from the film and I thought it was incredible. So homoerotic, it’s beautifully shot and that techno score is delicious. Original screenplay nomination at least. Game. Set. Snatched. 

[babz06]

It’s a tennis drama. Not a bad opening for Challengers all things considered. I always thought it might make around 40m Dom (similar to DWD), we’ll see what the legs look like but that’s likely where it’s headed. It’ll probably do very well when it gets to streaming too. 

Edited April 26 by babz06