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Weekday #'s (4/29-5/2)

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Looks like Panda will be completely leaving the smaller Cinemarks next weekend but still maintaining a full showtime slate at the big ones. I guess the Ep1 rerelease will be something of a competitive option for families.

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6 hours ago, MightyDargon said:

Do people generally think Civil War has enough remaining runway to hit 75 mil?

 

There's too much actiony stuff in the next month for it to maintain a sizable theater count, I've been saying Annihilation has looked like the most apt comparison for its word-of-mouth, and it does seem like it's going to follow that movie's pattern of just losing too many theaters to get to a 3x+ multiplier 

 

 

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A sub-60% drop with noi holiday or school break bump is really exceptional, especially as a first Monday and better than everything else in wide release. Another potential comparison, AIR also from MGM/Amazon last April, had a higher Saturday than Challengers ($5.9M vs. $5M) but has dropped below it on Sunday ($3.6M vs. $3.8M) and Monday ($1.5M vs. $1.6M) even though AIR had a light Easter Monday bump. AIR ended up dropping -46% in its second weekend, so if Challengers can stay ahead of it a sub-40% weekend drop is possible...maybe better?

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It’ll be hard but I want to see GxK get to 185m before Friday then try to add 5m for the weekend to be at 190m. That might be stretching it a bit too much but the holds have been really good so I guess not impossible. 

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Great increase for Challengers, though today could be bad, since Fall Guy will start taking IMAX and other PLFs later tonight. But I have hope we got a legs monster on our hands. Fitting, since all three leads have very sexy legs. 👅 

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Apparently, it's blowing up on TikTok. Some of these movies with young stars need TikTok and other social media to spread the word. Too bad TikTok will be banned in the US. It's a useful tool in promoting movies these days

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42 minutes ago, Eric the Fall Guy said:

Great increase for Challengers, though today could be bad, since Fall Guy will start taking IMAX and other PLFs later tonight. But I have hope we got a legs monster on our hands. Fitting, since all three leads have very sexy legs. 👅 


Losing PLF is going to hurt it for sure, but on the other hand taking a look at Friday showtimes in NY/LA, there are a lot already sold for this Friday which is interesting. Maybe it will be a word of mouth phenomenon like Saltburn, but at a higher baseline? 
 

After going wide, Saltburn only dipped 9.3% in its 2nd wide weekend, and that was also the weekend after Thanksgiving which is notoriously harsh for drops. 
 

Obviously challengers will drop harder having opened way bigger and losing all PLFs. But perhaps there is some hope for a 35-40% drop? 

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4 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Apparently, it's blowing up on TikTok. Some of these movies with young stars need TikTok and other social media to spread the word. Too bad TikTok will be banned in the US. It's a useful tool in promoting movies these days

I've said before, maybe in the Telegram chat, that the TikTok ban is going to be a devastating blow to modern exhibition. Let's face it, a lot of the cinematic phenomenons of the decade were largely fueled by TikTok hype, especially Minions 2, Barbie and Oppenheimer. The crossover between moviegoers today and the TikTok userbase is a lot bigger than many might think. The ban isn't going to happen for a few more months though, so exhibitors had better start thinking up some new solutions to keep the youth engaged.

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Great to see for Challengers. Feel like WOM is really positive and buzzy with a lot of people (me included) itching to go see it in theaters again and telling all of their friends they need to see it ASAP. Sucks that the Fall Guy is taking IMAX/PLFs but if it flops, hopefully theater owners will recognize that and maybe give some back to Challengers...? Can that happen?

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I forget where I saw the data but it didn't look like the PLF share for Challengers was that big compared to Civil War, and honestly it doesn't need it imo. I don't think its legs will be impacted as much.

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1 minute ago, AniNate said:

I forget where I saw the data but it didn't look like the PLF share for Challengers was that big compared to Civil War, and honestly it doesn't need it imo. I don't think its legs will be impacted as much.

Yeah I don’t think the drop will be that harsh. If this keeps up possibly sub 40% drop coming. 

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21 minutes ago, Eric the Fall Guy said:

Doesn’t Instagram have their own TikTok style video service? I’m sure another app will come in and save the day.

 

They banned TikTok in India and the market moved onto YouTube Shorts. Most people likely won't notice TikTok being unavailable. These platforms come and go - look at Vine.

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Not fully surprised with Challengers, the movie is massive on social media. 
 

I though it would explode on Prime Vídeo, but thankfully it seems to be helping it’s box office as well. 
 

I doubt it’s the type of movie that needs IMAX and PFL, it can try some great 40% drop or less on second weekend.

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