Labor Day Weekend Thread | Reagan 525K previews, AfrAId 400K

[Ryan C]

1 hour ago, Eric Ripley said:

I mean...I guess an extra 50M was lost with Christmas Eve being on Friday...I guess? But you're really overstating how the calendar works. And honestly, I'd argue the Christmas bump in general isn't as extreme as some users here make it out to be. It's there, but a film's not gonna add an extra 200M to a movie's total just because it came out in late December.

 

21 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

 

Out of curiosity I took NWH's run and applied TFA's daily drops and increases to it from its first, pre-Christmas Wednesday (the day their runs first begin to noticeably diverge) through to the second Sunday of January. Long story short, I ended up with:

 

125.6m second weekend (505m cume)

76m third weekend (675m cume)

35.7m fourth weekend (735m cume)

 

Using NWH's own legs from fourth weekend on - not including the "more fun stuff" re-release - I arrived at a 885m total with TFA's calendar configuration. And that's the best case scenario because, as someone else said, NWH's daily holds were weaker than TFA's right from the jump. The actual finish if its first Friday fell on December 18 might've been closer to 850m.

 

8 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

The real reason that NWH dropped harder than usual in 2nd week is because of COVID. There was an Omicron surge in late December/January which hindered legs. I think that was the worst of COVID in terms of deaths.

 

However, NWH had a very empty market so some people who normally would have seen it in the first 2-3 weeks instead saw it in February/March. The business was shifted around.

 

The idea that calendar config alone can add $200m is ridiculous, Christmas day weekday/weekend distinction doesn’t matter much. There’s no way 15 million+ extra people would’ve seen NWH just because Christmas fell on a different day or something.

 

 

Ok, maybe I went too far with this. 

 

I didn't really consider the Omicron surge and I'm probably putting way too much faith in that Force Awakens comparison. 

 

Let's just say that No Way Home would've made slightly more if its second Friday was Christmas Day and not $1B domestically. I mean, if Avengers: Endgame couldn't do it despite opening almost $100M higher, then I guess I don't see how No Way Home could've done it. 

 

I apologize if I frustrated anyone with this. 

Edited August 31 by Ryan C

[Bob Train]

18 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

 

Out of curiosity I took NWH's run and applied TFA's daily drops and increases to it from its first, pre-Christmas Wednesday (the day their runs first begin to noticeably diverge) through to the second Sunday of January. Long story short, I ended up with:

 

125.6m second weekend (505m cume)

76m third weekend (675m cume)

35.7m fourth weekend (735m cume)

 

Using NWH's own legs from fourth weekend on - not including the "more fun stuff" re-release - I arrived at a 885m total with TFA's calendar configuration. And that's the best case scenario because, as someone else said, NWH's daily holds were weaker than TFA's right from the jump. The actual finish if its first Friday fell on December 18 might've been closer to 850m.

You also have to keep in mind that TFA admission were a lot more than NWH so there was more spillover. NWH burnt off a lot more of its demand in its 1st week. So I don’t think that it would’ve been able to hold as well as that.

 

I don’t really think there’s any particular benefit to Christmas falling on a Friday, it fell on a Thursday for Titanic and that was even bigger in admissions than TFA/Avatar.

[Jake Gittes]

3 minutes ago, Eric Ripley said:

Dune 2 and Wonka should have made more though. Just because.

 

Twisters should have made more than Dune 2. Timmy is old news

 

 

 

[wildphantom]

JW’s last stand, desperately trying to hold out D&W and IO2. 

[ringedmortality]

1 hour ago, Eric Ripley said:

And I guess A Complete Unknown could get to 40M+ too,

 

I think ACU has potential to reach or get close to 100M. Like I think it can get to Anyone But You numbers.

[Ryan C]

4 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

I think ACU has potential to reach or get close to 100M. Like I think it can get to Anyone But You numbers.

 

I'm honestly under the same impression. 

 

Outside of the Chamalet factor (though he's absolutely a plus), this movie just has the makings to be a solid end-of-year title for adults. Call it Oscar-bait or whatever, but that (and Nosferatu) are great counter-programming to the family films that'll be playing all throughout the holiday season. 

 

Technically, it is based on a true story, but I think this will be the big test for Chalamet to see if he can open a movie that isn't attached to some IP. I don't know how popular Bob Dylan is with the younger crowd, but if there's a way you're gonna convince the 18-34 crowd to see a movie like this, having Chalamet in there is a good start. 

[Eric the Marxist]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

I have Moana 2 pegged down for the highest grossing movie of the year tbh. 700 mil+

 

10 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

I think ACU has potential to reach or get close to 100M. Like I think it can get to Anyone But You numbers.

Good luck to the both of ya's. 🙃

[John Marston]

 

I don't necessarily think anything has changed, there are just not as many of those type of films that can be Oscar bait and also heavily audience appealing but it can still happen. We just had Oppenheimer last year

[Arlborn]

8 hours ago, justnumbers said:

Yeah Alien will have a fight for that 100M Domestic. Very excited to see how it pans out either way. Thankfully we have @JimmyB to solely focus on negatives at the box office, even within the successes. That's all he does.

 

What I'm even curious about is Predator. I wonder...will they put a Prey 2 in theaters? A sequel to a streaming movie..

 

Right now, they're filming the spinoff first, Predator Badlands. That should be a no brainer for theaters, if only to see how one of these performs in theaters. Hopefully it's as good as Prey.

I had no idea about that Predator spinoff. They even got Elle Fanning as the lead apparently, interesting! I hope it is as good as Prey as well, that was such a good movie. Let's hope we get a proper Prey sequel in theaters.

[ZeroHour]

Disney left a ton of money on the table by sending Prey and Hocus Pocus 2 straight to streaming. 

[Gokai Red]

Re: December release dates, the amount of money any of the 100m OW December movies ended up making is more or less the amount they would have made in any other calendar configuration, just the way they get there on a daily basis is shifted around. If TFA or NWH had released a year later and had the Rogue One/AWOW calendar configurations, they probably would have made 110-120m in their second weekend and then pull off some crazy number like a 40m second Monday or something. The 25th and 26th are particularly boosted days, so TFA got lucky in that its 2nd and 3rd weekend records are extra boosted compared to what they could have been, and that's what contributes to those records being particularly long lasting, but even if it didn't have those record 2nd and 3rd weekends, it would have gotten to that 936m number (more or less). 

[lorddemaxus]

17 minutes ago, ZeroHour said:

Disney left a ton of money on the table by sending Prey and Hocus Pocus 2 straight to streaming. 

Hocus Pocus 2 feels like a film a lot of people would watch but not actually pay a ticket for it. Streaming was the move for that one 

[Migs20242]

1. Endgame

2. Infinity War

3. TG: Maverick

4. Force Awakens

5. Black Panther

6. IO2

7. D&W

8. No Way Home

9. Avengers

10. JW

11. TLJ

12. Titanic

13. Avatar

14. Incredibles 2

15. Avatar 2

16. Barbie

 

 

[ZeroHour]

10 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Hocus Pocus 2 feels like a film a lot of people would watch but not actually pay a ticket for it. Streaming was the move for that one 

Disagree. That was the one movie I had multiple female friends ask me when it was hitting theaters and then reacted surprised when I told them it was going to D+. Every millennial mom who grew up on the original would’ve taken their kids to that one. Instead they all watched it at home. That would’ve done at least $200 million domestic even with the so-so reviews. 

[Cooper Legion]

2 hours ago, Ryan C said:

Remember when people thought that after Barbie (which is still based on an IP!) that audiences wanted to see more original movies? Those takes are now look gonna look hilarious after Inside Out 2 and potentially Deadpool and Wolverine make slighly more money domestically than Barbie. 

They were always hilarious tbf

[HummingLemon496]

3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

I have Moana 2 pegged down for the highest grossing movie of the year tbh. 700 mil+

If Moana 2 somehow does $700M+ domestic. . .

[wattage]

45 minutes ago, ZeroHour said:

Disagree. That was the one movie I had multiple female friends ask me when it was hitting theaters and then reacted surprised when I told them it was going to D+. Every millennial mom who grew up on the original would’ve taken their kids to that one. Instead they all watched it at home. That would’ve done at least $200 million domestic even with the so-so reviews. 

It would've played similar to Beetlejuice 2 imo. Smaller scale of gross but still it's a property that's still popular in terms of iconography, nostalgia for it, but hadn't been franchised to death. Would've gotten a substantial female audience and would've played great in theaters releasing in September/October. 

 

Edit: and Disney would've made even more on ancillaries during the season selling outfits. 

Edited September 1 by wattage

[RichWS]

Strange Darling is such a blast; can't wait to watch it again down the road. I just noticed it and Alien: Romulus have the same Letterboxd score, which is embarrassing. 

Edited September 1 by RichWS

[HummingLemon496]

Are we sure DPW is still passing Barbie DOM?

[wattage]

52 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Are we sure DPW is still passing Barbie DOM?

Yeah it's still on track to do that unless it drops a lot bigger than anticipated next week