JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[FrozenFan626]

time for another challenge then, while we wait for results.this week will be another one both fun and hard to predict. Mon and Tues are holidays, wed-fri may have a gw boots effect or not. Will the weekend hold above OW one more time?Predictions due by 13:00 Tokyo time before Monday's numbers roll in.For the week. Mon-SunMfantin................22.9m

 

I'll say $19.7m

[Godzilla]

So Frozen will replace IM3 as the highest grossing film of 2013 WW? I'm beyond ecstatic. IM3 doesn't deserve to be #1 in anything.........

 

And it's so great to see that 2 different female center films beat IM3 Domestically and WW..........

[Incarnadine]

time for another challenge then, while we wait for results.this week will be another one both fun and hard to predict. Mon and Tues are holidays, wed-fri may have a gw boots effect or not. Will the weekend hold above OW one more time?Predictions due by 13:00 Tokyo time before Monday's numbers roll in.For the week. Mon-SunMfantin................22.9m

Since I like palindromes I'll go with 21.12m

[SamComedian]

I think 20.70m this week

[tong kosong]

My prediction is 18.88m

[Godzilla]

I'm going to go high and say $22M, you can't doubt this monster anymore.

[FrozenFan626]

So Frozen will replace IM3 as the highest grossing film of 2013 WW? I'm beyond ecstatic. IM3 doesn't deserve to be #1 in anything.........

 

And it's so great to see that 2 different female center films beat IM3 Domestically and WW..........

 

As much as I like Katnis and looove Anna I don't think the female-centric protagonist is the real reason for them surpassing IM3 (remember IM3 still opened much higher even than THG). Catching Fire and especially Frozen were just that much better as movies imo 

Edited May 4, 2014 by Kingslayer

[Godzilla]

As much as I like Katnis and looove Anna I don't think the female-centric protagonist is the real reason for them surpassing IM3 (remember IM3 still opened much higher even than THG). Catching Fire and especially Frozen were just that much better as movies imo 

I'm not saying that they won for being female centric films, at the end of the day both those films easily triumph IM3 in quality.

[rhfqkddl45]

My Prediction is...   20.5m

[edroger3]

I asked Ray Subers about what will be Frozen's final number in Japan. And he replied "I don't know. A lot."

For the first time in forever he start thinking that frozen passes IM3, and his 150M$ final prediction wasn't so accurate:

 

"Frozen continued its fantastic run in Japan, where it added $11.1 million in its eighth weekend in theaters. Remarkably, that's the movie's top weekend so far there. To date, it has grossed $143.2 million in Japan, and should continue to put up strong numbers for weeks to come. On a worldwide basis it reached $1.17 billion, and is now around $46 million away from topping Iron Man 3."

[rhfqkddl45]

From 138 page Frozen talk began. Rival at that time was Monster University  ($90m in Japan)

[Planodisney]

I'm not sure what some of you are talking about with poor Frozen numbers in Europe. It made over 40 million in both Germany and France, and 65 million in the U.K.. If I'm not mistaken didn't it pass DM2 in European gross, and DM2 was already considered a huge hit over there.

[Omni]

It did great in Europe, it just didn't explode the way it did in SK or Japan. Some are just wondering why the boom only happened in those two markets, and in fact a huge breakout could have arrived in one of those markets where Tangled were already huge and very well received. For example, Germany should have added over 50. Austria was 'even' lower than Tangled's #. Not like I'm disappointed by any means by its overall performance in Europe.

 

About this week's gross...22.22M? Needs a very strong Tue+Wed to get there.

 

Round 6 is mine, mfantin I forgot 2 of the other 5, though.. :ooops:

[mfantin65]

It did great in Europe, it just didn't explode the way it did in SK or Japan. Some are just wondering why the boom only happened in those two markets, and in fact a huge breakout could have arrived in one of those markets where Tangled were already huge and very well received. For example, Germany should have added over 50. Austria was 'even' lower than Tangled's #. Not like I'm disappointed by any means by its overall performance in Europe. About this week's gross...22.22M? Needs a very strong Tue+Wed to get there. Round 6 is mine, mfantin I forgot 2 of the other 5, though.. :ooops:

Week isnt official yet. Tuesday is a holiday. May drop 20% from monday but it'll still be huge. Eat a pizza and some chilean sea bass. This is the peak. All descending numbers from here on out. Until...Obon POP!!!what's ur number. Throw it up will you.

[Cynosure]

Mon-Tue should do slightly less than this weekend, so $9.5 or $10 M.

Wed-Friday weren't holidays this week so the drop should be weaker than next weekend's. I'm gonna go with a 20% drop for these weekdays so around $5.5-6 M and a 30% for next weekend given how huge this one was, which, using the $11.1 M figure, would put it just slightly above its opening weekend at around $7.7-7.8 M.

 

Going with the lower end each time, I get $22.7 M...

Edited May 4, 2014 by Cynosure

[Omni]

what's ur number. Throw it up will you.

What number are you talking about?

(for this week, it's 22.22 - quite on the high side, but I think this weekdays can be stronger this time thanks to Mon+Tue)

Edited May 4, 2014 by Omni

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Weekend Estimates [05/03-04]

01 (01) ¥1.09 billion ($10.8 million), +40%, Frozen (Disney) Week 8
02 (02) ¥536 million ($5.2 million), +09%, Thermae Romae II (Toho) Week 2
03 (03) ¥432 million ($4.2 million), -07%, Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (Toho) Week 3
04 (04) ¥373 million ($3.6 million), -11%, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (Sony) Week 2
05 (05) ¥259 million ($2.5 million), -05%, Partners the Movie 3 (Toei) Week 2
06 (--) ¥231 million ($2.2 million), 0, Enchanted Kingdom 3D (Toho-Towa) NEW
07 (--) ¥210 million ($2.1 million), 0, My Little Nightmare (Toho) NEW
08 (06) ¥207 million ($2.0 million), +04%, Crayon Shin-chan: Serious Battle! Robot Dad Strikes (Toho) Week 3
09 (07) ¥45 million ($440,000), -41%, Crows: Explode (Toho) Week 4
10 (08) ¥44 million ($430,000), -29%, Captain America: The Winter Soldier (Disney) Week 3
11 (09) ¥27 million ($260,000), -33%, L-DK (Toei) Week 4
12 (10) ¥20 million ($190,000), -23%, Heisei Rider vs. Showa Rider: Kamen Rider Taisen feat. Super Sentai (Toei) Week 6

Biggest Weekends (Top 10) [2001-]
01. ¥3.601 billion - 07/09-10/2005
02. ¥3.427 billion - 05/03-04/2014 *Estimate*
03. ¥3.423 billion - 07/19-20/2003
04. ¥3.329 billion - 07/21-22/2007
05. ¥3.314 billion - 07/22-23/2006
06. ¥3.160 billion - 04/17-18/2010
07. ¥3.048 billion - 07/21-22/2001
08. ¥2.963 billion - 07/17-18/2010
09. ¥2.960 billion - 07/18-19/2009
10. ¥2.917 billion - 07/10-11/2010

>Frozen claims its 8th-consecutive week on top and delivered its biggest weekend so far, as well as the biggest 8th weekend ever by a considerable margin (I'll post a list later). It should be at ¥14.4/14.5 billion ($142/143 million) after 52 days in release, more than enough to knock The Last Samurai (¥13.7 billion) out of the Top 10 All-Time.

>Thermae Romae II had a weaker second weekend increase than its predecessor, but is only about 2/3% weaker overall. It should be close to ¥2 billion ($20 million) now after 9 days in release as it aims for ¥4 billion+ ($40 million+). There's a possibility of it becoming the top-grossing live-action film released on the 2014 calendar year, too.

>Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension is down according to estimates in its third weekend, making it one of the few films in the franchise to decease over a Golden Week boosted weekend. Its third weekend however is still estimated to be bigger than any of the previous films' third weekends, and its total should be over ¥2.5 billion ($25 million) after 16 days in release.

>The Amazing Spider-Man 2 has the expected drop, which is very comparable with Iron Man 3's second weekend drop over Golden Week last year. The two films debuted to nearly identical numbers/admissions, and are having very similar performances after two weeks. It should be at ¥1.4/1.5 billion ($13/14 million) after 10 days in release, about 12/13% behind the first Amazing Spider-Man film so far.

>Enchanted Kingdom 3D fared pretty well, and might be underestimated if its 3D share was high enough. It shouldn't have any trouble finding its way to ¥1 billion ($10 million) or a bit more.

>My Little Nightmare had a promising start on Saturday, but slowed down over the weekend and settled for a mediocre opening. And with it opening during a Golden Week weekend, its legs will suffer too. It'll have a tough time reaching ¥1 billion ($10 million).

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Biggest Eighth Weekends/Eight Week Totals (2001-)
Eighth Weekend (% change) / Eight Week Total -> Final Total - Film
¥1.09 billion (+40%) / ¥14.50 billion -> ¥??.?? billion - Frozen (2014) *Estimate*
¥695.0 million (+02%) / ¥18.65 billion -> ¥30.40 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥644.9 million (-08%) / ¥15.26 billion -> ¥22.00 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥507.1 million (-11%) / ¥10.97 billion -> ¥15.60 billion - Avatar (2009)
¥505.8 million (-31%) / ¥14.73 billion -> ¥17.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥455.6 million (+34%) / ¥9.77 billion -> ¥12.02 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥429.7 million (-44%) / ¥17.18 billion -> ¥20.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥424.2 million (-22%) / ¥14.39 billion -> ¥17.35 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge (2003)
¥412.1 million (+46%) / ¥11.56 billion -> ¥13.50 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥378.1 million (-26%) / ¥13.44 billion -> ¥15.50 billion - Ponyo (2008)
¥347.2 million (-16%) / ¥9.93 billion -> ¥13.70 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥300 million+

Films Above ¥10 billion (~$100 million) after Eight Weeks (1998-)
¥18.65 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥17.18 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥15.26 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥14.73 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥14.50 billion - Frozen (2014) *Estimate*
¥14.39 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥13.44 billion - Ponyo (2008)
¥12.25 billion - Princess Mononoke (1997) *Estimate*
¥11.56 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥11.15 billion - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥10.97 billion - Avatar (2009)

(No Week 8 data for Star Wars Episode I or Armageddon)

[BadAtGender]

This Golden Week performance is reminiscent of what Frozen did DOM over the Christmas/New Years holidays.

[Rsyu]

$21.21M prediction for the following week.