JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Incarnadine]

From Corpse:

 

All-Time Top-Grossing Films (USD)01 :: $244.0 million - Spirited Away (2001)02 :: $212.0 million - Titanic (1997)03 :: $207.0 million - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)04 :: $188.7 million - Avatar (2009)05 :: $165.5 million - Princess Mononoke (1997)06 :: $164.5 million - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)07 :: $163.7 million - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)08 :: $156.0 million - Ponyo (2008)09 :: $149.0 million - Frozen (2014) [After 53 Days]*Estimate*10 :: $147.8 million - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)11 :: $142.8 million - Alice in Wonderland (2010)12 :: $130.7 million - Toy Story 3 (2010)13 :: $126.7 million - The Last Samurai (2003)14 :: $125.3 million - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011)15 :: $125.1 million - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)16 :: $123.5 million - The Wind Rises (2013) 17 :: $120.6 million - Jurassic Park (1993)18 :: $117.6 million - Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (1999)19 :: $114.9 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011) 20 :: $111.9 million - Arrietty (2010) 21 :: $102.4 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)21 :: $102.4 million - Finding Nemo (2003)23 :: $100.2 million - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)24 :: $100.0 million - Armageddon (1998)25 :: $97.2 million - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)26 :: $94.5 million - Rookies (2009)27 :: $93.6 million - Umizaru: Brave Hearts (2012)28 :: $91.3 million - Monsters University (2013)29 :: $90.5 million - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)$90 million+

 

So, even using the 143.2 as of Sunday, which many people think is underestimated, they are thinking only 5.8m for Monday?

Something definitely feels "off" about the numbers the last week or so.

[lab276]

It's a strong indication that FD could drastically improve OS. It came out in 2003, before many of the big OS markets exploded. The films that had bigger OS grosses before it were, I think, Titanic, Jurassic Park, the first two Harry Potter films, and the first two LotR films. So what sort of bump do you think it could get? TS2 had 240m OS. TS3 had nearly 650m. Monsters Inc had 270 while MU had 475. Ice Age had 205 while IA4 had 715 (granted, there were incremental raises with the other two films in the series.) FD could be looking at these sort of increases. It could bump up $300m OS or more. And that's ignoring whatever sort of increase it can get DOM.

It did very well in established markets, particularly in Europe and Japan. There's no room for growth there, in fact it might go backwards. Other markets will make up for some of the difference, but certainly not enough to increase OS by $300m.Also, by 2003, exchange rates had already become more favourable (FOTR sold more tickets OS despite making quite a bit less then ROTK). Edited May 6, 2014 by lab276

[druv10]

So, even using the 143.2 as of Sunday, which many people think is underestimated, they are thinking only 5.8m for Monday?

Something definitely feels "off" about the numbers the last week or so.

 

It made 7M on Monday. Corpse even has that part of his post, confusion is coming from other days. Once holiday is over than we'll get actuals.

 

 

Sure. Frozen's number is an estimate based on this past weekend's estimates, and Monday's estimate of over ¥700 million ($7 million). Yes, Frozen grossed over $7 million yesterday (Monday) alone, its 53rd day in release, making it its biggest day-to-date (I'll have my Golden Week update up tonight or tomorrow). 

 

[mfantin65]

So, even using the 143.2 as of Sunday, which many people think is underestimated, they are thinking only 5.8m for Monday?Something definitely feels "off" about the numbers the last week or so.

The biggest sunday during SB was 4.9m. Add 8% for price hike +4% for 3d..................3/30...........5/4109...........9579 ......17243 + 33%Toho.......80,000......96000 + 20% =5.8 + 12% = 6.5m and 109 confirms admission increase. Sunday 4/20 was a 4.5m day.................4/20...........5/4Kinezo...15400.......22400 +33%109........16900.......17243 + 2%Toho......68000.......96000 +41%= 6.3+ 4%= 6.5% 109 doesnt quite confirm but kinezo not far offKinezo was up 40% over sunday. Toho up 22%109 was fucked up. Should be 7.5m+ for mondayWTF are the other theaters doing? Or who is tabulating these numbers.its GW. I think the accountants are getting fucked up on sake . These "official" estimates are shit. The weekend is closer to 12m, the week was closer to 27m and monday 7.5m. It'll square up with the screen daily report on Thu you'll see.this is fucking up my chi Edited May 6, 2014 by mfantin65

[catlover]

Toho 14:30 update for Frozen (excluding English sing-along): 56650

A little bit down from Monday, but bigger than Sunday! Evening will be weaker I guess?

 

ETA: Adding numbers for other movies

Frozen - 56650（LW 42217）+34.2％

Thermae II - 25327（LW 26646）-5.0％Conan - 24345（LW 24648）-1.2％Shin-chan - 14086（LW 14387）-2.1％TASM2 - 12126（LW 11504）+5.4％

 

Frozen and TASM2 are the only ones in the top 5 that increased from last Tuesday. That's good for TASM2.

Edited May 6, 2014 by catlover

[catlover]

Btw I was one of the people with sub-200m prediction. That was not because I didn't believe in it, but I was just putting a minimum number required to pass IM3 WW, and that was stupid lol. So I'm gonna definitely increase my prediction later.

[pepsa]

What if we now say passing HP7 P2 is locked, woudn't that been awesome! Only a few more milion dollars 170M as of sunday. It's like we are alsmost there!

[Omni]

I don't like changing predictions like a weathercock, so I'll keep my old 225-230 for awhile. The math on which it was based is (so far) off by a few millions, but that's it. SA in dollars is my target now, and the prediction in my mind keeps being a range.

 

Also, I'm sticking with a post-GW multiplier under 15x, and closer to 10x. Lack of competition in the upcoming weeks could push it closer to the high end, but I still see 15x as its ceiling. Frozen has defied grativity and rules in many markets, but sooner or later it has always 'fallen back to Earth'. It happened in North America, in China, in South Korea, in Italy, ecc ecc. Therefore, I expect a weakening, probably in the second half of May (or could even be in the first half of June).

Is that a guarantee? No. Just what statistics suggest. I feel humean. "It's Frozen" is not a counterfactual condition here.

Edited May 6, 2014 by Omni

[pepsa]

I don't like changing predictions like a weathercock, so I'll keep my old 225-230 for awhile. The math on which it was based is (so far) off by a few millions, but that's it. SA in dollars is my target now, and the prediction in my mind keeps being a range.

 

Also, I'm sticking with a post-GW multiplier under 15x, and closer to 10x. Lack of competition in the upcoming weeks could push it closer to the high end, but I still see 15x as its ceiling. Frozen has defied grativity and rules in many markets, but sooner or later it has always 'fallen back to Earth'. It happened in North America, in China, in South Korea, in Italy, ecc ecc. Therefore, I expect a weakening, probably in the second half of May (or could even be in the first half of June).

Is that a guarantee? No. Just what statistics suggest. I feel humean. "It's Frozen" is not a counterfactual condition here.

 

What did you tought about "IT's Japan!" as a counterfactual condition?

[Quigley]

I'd say Finding Dory has a shot, actually.

 

Dory's problems: The biggest problem that Finding Dory has is competition. Within a month of its release, three other high-profile animated movies will be released: HtTYD3, Angry Birds and Ice Age 5. In fact, in North America, it will open on the same day as HtTYD3. The latter will end up doing big numbers if HtTYD2 is big too (both in NA and OS). Ice Age 5 aso has the potential to gross over $700M OS which will be enough to slow down Finding Dory. Angry Birds is not an easy guess but it isn't completely original. It is based on well-known material worldwide since it is a game for smartphones.

 

Why Frozen succeeded: On the other hand, Frozen had minimal competition for three months in NA and even more in some OS markets, with the most important point being that DreamWorks released no film during the holiday period (November-December). If Finding Dory was released on the day Frozen was released, it could have grossed even more than Frozen. But being released right in the middle of a sequel-packed summer, its chances to explode like Frozen are slim.

 

2016 schedule: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/?view=bydate&release=theatrical&yr=2016&p=.htm

 

Suggestion: Given that Fining Dory will be the first animated film to be released in three months (Mumbai Musical will be released on March 18), it could easily move to Memorial Day weekend 2016 (May 27) and still be the first aimated film to be released in two months. If it is also released in OS markets during that time (late May) it will have a 3-week head start compared to the other animated films I mentioned. Therefore it can benefit from high demand in the market, lack of competition and the American holiday to boost its grosses while it can. Frozen didn't need a big opening since it boosted its grosses during the Christmas holidays, the Chinese New Year, or other holiday periods (see Japan). But Finding Dory will not have that opportunity due to competition that will slow it down considerably after a month. Even then, in order to reach Frozen, it needs more than a month.

[catlover]

The good thing is, HTTYD3, IA5 or Angry Birds won't be a problem at all in Japan. And obviously, Japan is crucial for FD if it wants to beat Frozen WW. With the same release date as TS3 or MU, FD will have holiday boost too with 2 months of summer weekdays and Obon holiday. So I think it has a shot, but everything has to be perfect, including the quality of the movie.

[SamComedian]

Dory's problems: The biggest problem that Finding Dory has is competition. Within a month of its release, three other high-profile animated movies will be released: HtTYD3, Angry Birds and Ice Age 5. In fact, in North America, it will open on the same day as HtTYD3. The latter will end up doing big numbers if HtTYD2 is big too (both in NA and OS). Ice Age 5 aso has the potential to gross over $700M OS which will be enough to slow down Finding Dory. Angry Birds is not an easy guess but it isn't completely original. It is based on well-known material worldwide since it is a game for smartphones.

 

Why Frozen succeeded: On the other hand, Frozen had minimal competition for three months in NA and even more in some OS markets, with the most important point being that DreamWorks released no film during the holiday period (November-December). If Finding Dory was released on the day Frozen was released, it could have grossed even more than Frozen. But being released right in the middle of a sequel-packed summer, its chances to explode like Frozen are slim.

 

2016 schedule: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/?view=bydate&release=theatrical&yr=2016&p=.htm

 

Suggestion: Given that Fining Dory will be the first animated film to be released in three months (Mumbai Musical will be released on March 18), it could easily move to Memorial Day weekend 2016 (May 27) and still be the first aimated film to be released in two months. If it is also released in OS markets during that time (late May) it will have a 3-week head start compared to the other animated films I mentioned. Therefore it can benefit from high demand in the market, lack of competition and the American holiday to boost its grosses while it can. Frozen didn't need a big opening since it boosted its grosses during the Christmas holidays, the Chinese New Year, or other holiday periods (see Japan). But Finding Dory will not have that opportunity due to competition that will slow it down considerably after a month. Even then, in order to reach Frozen, it needs more than a month.

Minimal competition for Frozen? I think that not: Hunger Games 2, the Hobbit 2, the lego movie, Ride Along, the nut Job etc etc Even so Frozen has destroyed other competitors.

[rhfqkddl45]

TOHO Admissions Chart [3/14- 5/5]

 

 

  Date         Adm      Seats    Sa                                Date         Adm     Seats     Sa

03/14(F)　*49654　164868　30%                04/14(M)　*20665　152882　13%
03/15(S)　*59276　168060　35%                04/15(T)　*10286　150214　 7%

03/16(S)　*64414　157678　41%                04/16(w)　*31370　151538　21%        

                                            04/17(T)　*10016　149299　 7%

03/17(M)　*19967　166952　12%                04/18(F)　*14249　156534　 9%

03/18(T)　*21651　166618　13%                04/19(S)　*56713　141591　40%
03/19(w)　*43281　160538　27%                04/20(S)　*68963　125675　55%

03/20(T)　*27082　162085　17%
03/21(F)　*69818　136276　51%                04/21(M)　*14202　139132　10%        

03/22(S)　*67663　161089　42%                04/22(T)　*11454　138136　 8%
03/23(S)　*70706　151564　47%                04/23(w)　*34536　141038　24%
                                          04/24(T)　*10596　134717　 8%

03/24(M)　*28363　154539　18%                04/25(F)　*13646　109914　12%
03/25(T)　*33679　153391　22%                04/26(S)　*56390　126412　45%
03/26(w)　*83765　156152　54%                04/27(S)　*68906　118178　58%
03/27(T)　*40801　156010　26%
03/28(F)　*37385　160089　23%                04/28(M)　*26927　111392　24%
03/29(S)　*58932　165219　36%                04/29(T)　*80269　116669　69%  (+5000)
03/30(S)　*80440　154787　52%                04/30(w)　*41542　124075　33%
                                          05/01(T)　*49421　123839　40%

03/31(M)　*40807　156184　26%                05/02(F)　*25330　125150　20%
04/01(T)　*69958　148470　47%                05/03(S)　*82960　156396　53%
04/02(w)　*74515　149041　50%                05/04(S)　*96537　156372　62%
04/03(T)　*39976　147857　27%
04/04(F)　*38796　150681　26%                05/05(M)　117472　156433　75%
04/05(S)　*61536　169082　36%
04/06(S)　*67696　151561　45%                * TOP 3 *
                                            -Admissions-     

04/07(M)　*22202　156712　14%                1. 5/5 (Mon)....117,472 (9th Week - Holiday,GW)

04/08(T)　*15260　155428　10%                2. 5/4 (Sun).... 96,537 (8th Week - Sunday, GW)          04/09(w)　*35386　153848　23%                3. 4/29 (Tue)....80,269 +5000 (8th Week - First Day, GW )

04/10(T)　*11375　148867　 8%
04/11(F)　*14053　158016　 9%                -Seats-

04/12(S)　*57593　164406　35%                1. 4/5 (Sat)....169,082 (4th Weekend)

04/13(S)　*67869　153227　44%                2. 3/15 (Sat)...168,060 (First Weekend)

                                            3. 3/17 (Mon)...166,952 (2nd Week - First Monday)

         

                                            -Seat occupancy-

                                            1. 5/5 (Mon).... 117472 / 156433 - 75% (GW)

                                            2. 4/29 (Tue)...  80269 / 116669 - 69& (GW)

                                            3. 5/4 (Sun)....  96537 / 156372 - 62% (GW)

 

 

                                           

               

Edited May 6, 2014 by Hans13

[tong kosong]

Minimal competition for Frozen? I think that not: Hunger Games 2, the Hobbit 2, the lego movie, Ride Along, the nut Job etc etc Even so Frozen has destroyed other competitors.

 

Hunger Games, Hobbit and Ride along had different target audience. Nut job was not a big budget film and didn't get good review. The only true competitor for Frozen is Lego Movie. And yes, Frozen was barely affected.

Finding Dory will face 3 big animated films, even passing 1B will be a challenge.

[mfantin65]

I don't like changing predictions like a weathercock, so I'll keep my old 225-230 for awhile. The math on which it was based is (so far) off by a few millions, but that's it. SA in dollars is my target now, and the prediction in my mind keeps being a range. Also, I'm sticking with a post-GW multiplier under 15x, and closer to 10x. Lack of competition in the upcoming weeks could push it closer to the high end, but I still see 15x as its ceiling. Frozen has defied grativity and rules in many markets, but sooner or later it has always 'fallen back to Earth'. It happened in North America, in China, in South Korea, in Italy, ecc ecc. Therefore, I expect a weakening, probably in the second half of May (or could even be in the first half of June).Is that a guarantee? No. Just what statistics suggest. I feel humean. "It's Frozen" is not a counterfactual condition here.

Well you did expect gw to bring the total to 160+ and thought 7m x 10 from there. So yes there is no need to "revise" but its a new competition and you can go w 15x on that one so you have your low and high end covered.you have to remember this is a different situation in japan regarding gravity. Its gunning for all time top 3. It wasn't in dom. Its staying afloat like titanic and e.t. dom, SA in japan. They were gravity defying and it is acting like those 3 right now.nd

[Quigley]

Minimal competition for Frozen? I think that not: Hunger Games 2, the Hobbit 2, the lego movie, Ride Along, the nut Job etc etc Even so Frozen has destroyed other competitors.

 

Frozen fell only 20% in NA when Nut Job was released. And during Nut Job's 3rd weekend, Frozen moved ahead of that film. Also, I said 3 months. The LEGO Movie was released nearly 3 months after Frozen, so Frozen had already become a national phenomenon by that time. Clearly families wouldn't choose the Hobbit 2 or Ride Along or the Hunger Games 2. They would choose Frozen. That wasn't an issue. And if you've noticed, on their opening weekends all the movies you mentioned earned more than what Frozen earned (on that specific weekend). But eventually Frozen moved ahead of those movies. e.g. Hobbit 2 earned more than Frozen during the weekend Dec. 13-15, but Frozen eventually surpassed Hobbit 2, earning more money on Jan. 3-5. Same with Nut Job, Hunger Games and Ride Along. Clearly Frozen had the most staying power.

Edited May 6, 2014 by Quigley

[edroger3]

It's a strong indication that FD could drastically improve OS. It came out in 2003, before many of the big OS markets exploded. The films that had bigger OS grosses before it were, I think, Titanic, Jurassic Park, the first two Harry Potter films, and the first two LotR films.

 

So what sort of bump do you think it could get? TS2 had 240m OS. TS3 had nearly 650m. Monsters Inc had 270 while MU had 475. Ice Age had 205 while IA4 had 715 (granted, there were incremental raises with the other two films in the series.) FD could be looking at these sort of increases. It could bump up $300m OS or more.

 

And that's ignoring whatever sort of increase it can get DOM.

Finding Nemo final gross is inflated by a minor re-release in 2006 and a major 3d re-release in 2012. In its original run, in 2003, it grossed about 330M$ Dom and 440M$ OS (less than Matrix reloaded in same year)

[lab276]

Finding Nemo final gross is inflated by a minor re-release in 2006 and a major 3d re-release in 2012. In its original run, in 2003, it grossed about 330M$ Dom and 440M$ OS (less than Matrix reloaded in same year)

More like 339 and ~520

[SamComedian]

HTTYD2 will be an epic animated movie, sure.

Edited May 6, 2014 by SamComedian

[SamComedian]

Frozen box office this tuesday?