JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[LABAS]

Hi guys :

 

My friend and I spent time visiting TOHO's website to do a brief calculation of this weekend's Frozen seats.

 

Last Saturday: 141222

 

This Saturday : around 125000

 

So, at least in TOHO, Frozen lost 11% seats , which is much better than I have heard.

 

11% is not a big deal , what counts is how many people do want to pick Frozen over other new movies.

[mfantin65]

Today I have read that this sunday a lot of Tokio's people had failed to get a ticket for Frozen. If this still happened after six weeks, everything can happened, so my prevision is everything over 200.You can add to your list another "absurd" prediction of a famous box office guy:Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya 20 apr#Frozen has been unstoppable in Japan. 6 wks at #1 w/ almost no signs of slowing down. Top mkt outside US, $150M possible.

150m, some people cant see numbers tabulate in the future. It would have to have 30% weekly drops to do 150now. How that is possible w GW, 3d, s-a, sold out shows and zero drop from ow.if Vegas was making odd, I think the payout would be larger for hitting 150 than 300. So 200m for you? Official? Edited April 22, 2014 by mfantin65

[edroger3]

150m, some people cant see numbers tabulate in the future. It would have to have 30% weekly drops to do 150now. How that is possible w GW, 3d, s-a, sold out shows and zero drop from ow.So 200m for you? Official?

that's what I tried to explain, but he did not answer.

 

Official is 210

[edroger3]

It means another $150M, or $150M in all?

$150M in all

 

Two week ago 150 is a reasonable prediction also fo me, but now, after six week with no sign of declining and still a lot of shows sold out, it's almost ridicolous.

Edited April 22, 2014 by edroger

[Rsyu]

Those so called box office guru's haven't got a clue when it comes to tracking frozen's run in Japan. 

 

The people on this forum are tracking frozen much more closely, taking in factors like number of screens gained/lost, potential competition, holiday boost etc. We're much more well informed than they are. 

[catlover]

Mine is 190m. Is that enough to beat IM3 WW?

[Hider]

Mine is 190m. Is that enough to beat IM3 WW?

Almost

[mfantin65]

Those so called box office guru's haven't got a clue when it comes to tracking frozen's run in Japan. The people on this forum are tracking frozen much more closely, taking in factors like number of screens gained/lost, potential competition, holiday boost etc. We're much more well informed than they are.

A box office reporter should have enough experience to just take a glance at the weekend numbers and know a minimum 10 multiplier should occur and that 200is a possibility and IM3 could go down.

[lab276]

Those so called box office guru's haven't got a clue when it comes to tracking frozen's run in Japan. The people on this forum are tracking frozen much more closely, taking in factors like number of screens gained/lost, potential competition, holiday boost etc. We're much more well informed than they are.

At the same time you have to wonder, why would it matter to them? It's an overseas market for which data is hard to come by. They are obviously more focused on the DOM market.

[tong kosong]

Mine is 190m. Is that enough to beat IM3 WW?

 

I think yes. Frozen trails by $86.2M. $86M more from Japan + domestic surely will be enough to pass IM3

[Rsyu]

At the same time you have to wonder, why would it matter to them? It's an overseas market for which data is hard to come by. They are obviously more focused on the DOM market.

 

Well it's only the difference between passing IM3 WW or not. if that isn't important...

I can understand it not being all that important to the average BO tracker but come on, tracking numbers is a job to these guys. 

But I wasn't really out to criticize them for it, I just wanted to emphasize that the people tracking frozen here are doing an awesome job

[keysersoze123]

I am still sticking with my original prediction but if I start to see really insane numbers during and after Golden Week then I might probably rise it to 260m+

 

But for now I am gonna stick with 230m

 

you should be ashamed of yourself for going so low. I am taking your frozen fan card for this.   

 

 

My prediction 200M round. 

[FrozenFan626]

At this point I might as well go for it. Put me down for $250m mfantin, hopefully it does even more 

[Ray]

1 dollar, Bob....just kidding. 215.

[Boxx93]

Oh no Kingslayer, you wil not go higher than me!!!

 

Mfantin65, I am now rasing my bet to 260m

[Rsyu]

The craziness is spreading!!

Someone isolate patient zero (Mfantin) before he infects anyone else

 

[mfantin65]

Oh no Kingslayer, you wil not go higher than me!!!

 

Mfantin65, I am now rasing my bet to 260m

I shall revise. of course additional revisions accepted thru sat 1430 toho. take advantage of wed-fri

 

not too infectious Rysu, I thought there would be more 200+

[mfantin65]

1 dollar, Bob....just kidding. 215.

old price is right fan. nice. need not worry about going over here

Edited April 22, 2014 by mfantin65

[chuck0]

Hehe, i thought that there would only be 200+ estimates... thats why i wanted to provide a "conservative" floor... but since i am not the lowest anymore i guess ill go quite a bit higher after seeing a bit more of the week... it is especially encouraging that the seat count held that well

[Rsyu]

Hi guys :

 

My friend and I spent time visiting TOHO's website to do a brief calculation of this weekend's Frozen seats.

 

Last Saturday: 141222

 

This Saturday : around 125000

 

So, at least in TOHO, Frozen lost 11% seats , which is much better than I have heard.

 

11% is not a big deal , what counts is how many people do want to pick Frozen over other new movies.

 

This is pretty awesome if they keep it at this number. Is there any way you can do the same calculation with Aeon cinema theaters?