JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[LABAS]

Dollar is building a base at 101 and making higher highs threatening the multi year high at 105. It may try to break out. At least test and fail that resistance point first if it wants to dump. Not looking good for frozen right now. At 102.5 which is about the mean for frozens run. Its poised to make a 5%+ move soon though.Labas are presales looking like yesterday? Go get em ladies!

Yesterday was monserous and a national holiday. Today presale is far from yesterday but still much better than last Wednesday.

40000 + toho perhaps.

[Murgatroyd]

 

 

 

Beating Ponyo is virtually certain.  Howl is likely, approaching very likely.  Spirited Away in $ is possible.  Spirited Away in ¥ is still out of reach.

[mfantin65]

Yesterday was monserous and a national holiday. Today presale is far from yesterday but still much better than last Wednesday.40000 + toho perhaps.

monday was up 66% over last week and 12% short of 1st SB monday. That would put wed in a 57-66k range. Was hoping more people are off as the week progresses and break 70k. We need toho 1430:22k for 40k day= 2.4m27/50/3..0m33/60/3.6m38/70/4.2Tohox - 60

[LABAS]

toho afternoon1827426% up from last Wednesday

[Omni]

Scanty.

[Rsyu]

Looks like GW wasn't in full effect today. Disappointing but not surprised.

[keysersoze123]

Massive overestimation from mfantin.

[LABAS]

Good news!cinematoday jp has reported that the total adm is over 10mit is 10.30m , which means Monday and Tuesday increase0.55m admission!The gross is 12.87b Yen , increasing 760m Yen in two daysThat is, Tuesday earned at least 560~580m yen, the highest single day gross!

[Omni]

Massive overestimation from mfantin.

We're getting used to it

 

This GW could be around 23/24M.

[mfantin65]

Massive overestimation from mfantin.

GW not consistent like SB. you didnt let me know how many women and children didnt have work and school today.my estimate for the week is 29m, 48m for GW. That ship is coming in! Dont get your panties in a bunch over one day Edited April 30, 2014 by mfantin65

[rhfqkddl45]

Good news!cinematoday jp has reported that the total adm is over 10mit is 10.30m , which means Monday and Tuesday increase0.55m admission!The gross is 12.87b Yen , increasing 760m Yen in two daysThat is, Tuesday earned at least 560~580m yen, the highest single day gross!

 

Amazing results!!

[mfantin65]

We're getting used to it  This GW could be around 23/24M.

sounds like round 6. 24m vs. 29m. 27m over/under. Im giving you 500k handicap.

[lab276]

From Corpse:

 

Frozen exceeded 10 million admissions on Tuesday, its 47th-day in release. It also becomes only the 16th film in history to achieve the major milestone.

Fastest to 10 Million Admissions:

31 Days - Spirited Away (2001)
35 Days - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
40 Days - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
41 Days - Ponyo (2008)
44 Days - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
47 Days - Frozen (2014)
48 Days - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
66 Days - Princess Mononoke (1997)
67 Days - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
71 Days - The Last Samurai (2003) 
157 Days - Avatar (2009)

The other five films to reach 10 million admissions, but the amount of days being unknown are: Tokyo Olympiad (1965), Titanic(1997), Emperor Meiji and the Great Russo-Japanese War (1958), Godzilla vs. King Kong (1962), and E.T. (1982)

[lab276]

Also this, pretty interesting. Because Japan's population is falling, getting 18.5% today (like Spirited Away) would give you less tickets.

 

Here is what it looks like when comparing the percentage of people that saw all the films that sold 10 million+ tickets at the box office in their respective years. 

If a film was released in Nov/Dec, I used the following year since all but HP3 made 50% or more of their gross/admissions after their first month in release (assuming the 50s/60s films weren't frontloaded),

(% of Pop.), Film's Admissions/Japan's Population - Film (Year)
(19.8%), 19.50 million/98.30 million - Tokyo Olympiad (1965)
(18.5%), 23.50 million/127.1 million - Spirited Away (2001)
(14.1%), 13.00 million/92.20 million - Emperor Meiji and the Great Russo-Japanese War (1958)
(13.3%), 16.83 million/126.2 million - Titanic (1997)
(13.2%), 12.55 million/94.40 million - Godzilla vs. King Kong (1962)
(12.7%), 16.20 million/127.1 million - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
(12.1%), 15.50 million/127.6 million - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
(11.3%), 14.20 million/126.0 million - Princess Mononoke (1997)
(11.0%), 14.00 million/127.3 million - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
(10.1%), 12.87 million/127.8 million - Ponyo (2008)
(9.9%), 12.60 million/127.5 million - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
(9.5%), 12.10 million/127.4 million - The Last Samurai (2003)
(9.1%), 10.69 million/117.9 million - E.T. the Extra Terrestrial (1982) 
(8.6%), 11.00 million/127.6 million - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
(7.9%), 10.10 million/127.6 million - Avatar (2009)
(7.9%), 10.00 million est./126.9 million - Frozen (2014) [47 Days in Release]

-Mid. population of each year used.

[catlover]

GW not consistent like SB. you didnt let me know how many women and children didnt have work and school today.my estimate for the week is 29m, 48m for GW. That ship is coming in! Dont get your panties in a bunch over one day

 

Because I think nobody here knows for sure how many people had work or school today. We only know that it's not a national holiday. As you know, every year the holidays fall on different days, so the daily effects are different for each year, but overall it's about the same. So I expect this weekend, and the holidays that follow it will be HUGE.

 

And congrats Frozen for exceeding 10 million admissions!  It's actually about as fast as Howl's Moving Castle, despite opening much lower than HMC.

Edited April 30, 2014 by catlover

[LABAS]

toho tonight41542 up 20% last Wednesday

[mfantin65]

toho tonight41542 up 20% last Wednesday

Evening Toho was 30% larger than afternoon. That indicates very few people are off, like a regular weekday. Articles I read said "many" factories and business are closed, if not, "many" take vacation days. Many plus many equal most not few. The authors must have attended the Ray Subers school of writing. Another article said May 1st is "May Day" is an unofficial holiday for people and those that are not part of the first two "manys" that are already supposedly off will take this day off. maybe that means few to none are taking Thursday off.

[lab276]

Evening Toho was 30% larger than afternoon. That indicates very few people are off, like a regular weekday. Articles I read said "many" factories and business are closed, if not, "many" take vacation days. Many plus many equal most not few. The authors must have attended the Ray Subers school of writing. Another article said May 1st is "May Day" is an unofficial holiday for people and those that are not part of the first two "manys" that are already supposedly off will take this day off. maybe that means few to none are taking Thursday off.

Well there is this:"Major airports, railway stations and expressways across the country were packed with holiday travelers Saturday as the Golden Week holiday season started.But the crowds were smaller than usual because this year’s holiday period is split into two long weekends, with the heaviest congestion expected May 3."http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/04/26/national/golden-week-holidays-start-exodus-slower-usual/#.U2EIPK2SyYU

[edroger3]

Evening Toho was 30% larger than afternoon. That indicates very few people are off, like a regular weekday. Articles I read said "many" factories and business are closed, if not, "many" take vacation days. Many plus many equal most not few. The authors must have attended the Ray Subers school of writing. Another article said May 1st is "May Day" is an unofficial holiday for people and those that are not part of the first two "manys" that are already supposedly off will take this day off. maybe that means few to none are taking Thursday off.

Another problem affect frozen: looking at toho site, there are some cinemas with a few shows and/or small screens that are almost all in soldout or near for today and tomorrow and other cinemas that have much many shows and bigger screens with a very small number in presales. It seems that after eight weeks, the japanese cinema guys have not yet figured out how to manage screens and seats. I hope that this weekend the announced seats increase will solve the problem.

[mfantin65]

Golden Week.

1.9- 2.0m Monday
5.4- 5.6m Tuesday

2.3- 2.5m Wednesday
9.6-10.1m Week

128.1-128.6m Current Total

GW Projections

40k+/2.5m+ Thursday National Discount Day. Should be as big or bigger than yesterday on May Day.
30k+/2m+ Friday. Spring Break High- 38k/2.6m
80k-100k/5.0-6.5m Saturday
80k-100k/5.0-6.5m Sunday

15- 19m Midweek
10- 13m Weekend
19- 22m Next week
162-172m Total ending GW 5/11. Spirited Away's summer ends, 167m

230m Locked
250-300m+ Range