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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

By Corpse, in International Box Office

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Corpse Sleeper Hit

Corpse

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They still can.   My projections are usually in the ballpark after doing this for so long, but don't take them as estimates or anything yet!  I can be wrong, and I may have projected Edge of Tomorrow with too good a hold now that morning showtimes are over.  A drop closer to 35% looks more in the cards now.  Maleficent still looking at around a 25% or so dip.  

 

And the typhoon honestly isn't having much affect on the box-office.  75/80% of the box-office comes from regions that are only receiving some wind and rain.  It's basically like having a heavy rain in these parts of the country.  All the flooding and power loss (and it wasn't that extreme) happened in the southern region which accounts for very little of the box-office.  

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Blackout Box Office Gold

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They still can.   My projections are usually in the ballpark after doing this for so long, but don't take them as estimates or anything yet!  I can be wrong, and I may have projected Edge of Tomorrow with too good a hold now that morning showtimes are over.  A drop closer to 35% looks more in the cards now.  Maleficent still looking at around a 25% or so dip. And the typhoon honestly isn't having much affect on the box-office.  75/80% of the box-office comes from regions that are only receiving some wind and rain.  It's basically like having a heavy rain in these parts of the country.  All the flooding and power loss (and it wasn't that extreme) happened in the southern region which accounts for very little of the box-office.

Are those drops good? Or normal?
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Ray Indie Sensation

Ray

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So I'm guessing the delaying the movie to build up hype thing that was done for Frozen isn't common for Hollywood movies released in Japan? :wacko:

 

Looks like Tangled opened March 12, and Wreck-it Ralph opened March 23, so it's not unprecedented for Disney, but I don't know the logic behind how they handle their non-November releases. Or even the logic behind the November>March releases.

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Corpse Sleeper Hit

Corpse

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Are those drops good? Or normal?

They're looking perfectly normal this early into the weekend.

 

A bigger opening like Maleficent had often have good second weekend holds of 15-25%, and then go on to have bigger "normal" drops of in the 30-40% for most of the remainder of their runs.  Now Maleficent's opening wasn't really, really big, so if it falls over 25% it should be okay.  If it's over 35% or even 40%+... be worried.

 

A smaller opening like Edge of Tomorrow actually end up with worse second weekend holds that can range from 35-50%.  You'd think the opposite would happen (big opening = bigger second weekend drop), but most of the time that's how it happens.  They then go on to stabilize with normal 30-40% drops.

 

If a big opener has a second weekend drop over 40%, something is going very wrong.  Either there was a fanbase involved, bad WOM already spread, whatever it is, the film isn't likely to recover.  

 

There's a lot of factors to take into account, too, of course.  Demographics, release date, WOM, franchise trends, etc.  But for your normal film released during normal times, that's how it works.  

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Blackout Box Office Gold

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They're looking perfectly normal this early into the weekend.A bigger opening like Maleficent had often have good second weekend holds of 15-25%, and then go on to have bigger "normal" drops of in the 30-40% for most of the remainder of their runs. Now Maleficent's opening wasn't really, really big, so if it falls over 25% it should be okay. If it's over 35% or even 40%+... be worried.A smaller opening like Edge of Tomorrow actually end up with worse second weekend holds that can range from 35-50%. You'd think the opposite would happen (big opening = bigger second weekend drop), but most of the time that's how it happens. They then go on to stabilize with normal 30-40% drops.If a big opener has a second weekend drop over 40%, something is going very wrong. Either there was a fanbase involved, bad WOM already spread, whatever it is, the film isn't likely to recover. There's a lot of factors to take into account, too, of course. Demographics, release date, WOM, franchise trends, etc. But for your normal film released during normal times, that's how it works.

That's very informative, thank you! So I'm guessing X-Men had quite bad WOM in Japan? Lol
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