JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[titanic2187]

22 hours ago, Gkalaitza said:

True..Miyazaki actualy had back to back to back to back 15 billion yen movies from Mononoke to Ponyo..If Shinkai drops to 10-15 billion yen with WWY maybe he wont be able to stay conistsently over 10byen

 

Idk if there is another anime director with such a huge name to pull the people in..Probably if Anno does something great after Eva ,like a Nausicaa trilogy or whatever..Shin Godzilla was close to 10b yen and Evangelion 3.0 actualy did in the Conan/Doreamon ballpark, i think around 6 billion Yen and every rebuild does better than the last

 

Do you thing the last Evangelion rebuild can do 8 billion ? its coming June 2020..maybe its gonna get a boost by the olympics ,idk ?

The problem with anime is they often skewed younger and fan base oriented, hard to achieve 4 quadrant like as Miyaozaki and Shinkai's films. How high can an anime go normally associated how much they can extend beyond their target demo. 

 

   

[Sunny Max]

27 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

Japan box office  (20-21 July)

 

Weathering With You :- $10.5 M / $14.5 M

Toy Story 4 :- $7.7 M / $36.8 M

Aladdin :- $3.7 M / $96.7 M

Far From Home :- $1.5 M / $24.8 M

TS4 Drop around 40% from OW ...though i was expected 35% ... 

[titanic2187]

My estimates for Makoto Shinkai's Weathering With You:


(C)2019「天気の子」製作委員会

Opening Weekend: ¥1.115 billion ($10.4 million) / 820,000 admissions.
3-Day Total: ¥1.540 billion ($14.3 million) / 1,125,000 admissions.

This opening is remarkably the fourth film to debut above ¥1 billion this year. And it's about 20% higher than the opening weekend of Shinkai's previous film Your Name.. 

Reviews and audience scores are strong (averaging 4/5), so we can probably expect a pretty long run. I doubt its legs come anywhere near those of Your Name.'s, but it will probably settle somewhere between 10-15 (10 isn't uncommon this time of year, and 14/15 is a common range for a well-received film like this). I know that's a wide range, but accurately pin-pointing multipliers at this stage for a film like this isn't easy. That would put its total in a wide range of ¥11.5-¥17.0 billion ($105-160 million), but look for its range total to become more clear in the coming weeks.

I would say it's the slight favorite to win the year right now since it has a higher ceiling than Aladdin or Toy Story 4, with both of them being on track for around ¥12 billion ($110 million), so it could be a three-way battle in the end if Weathering With You falls on the low-end of its expected multiplier.

[catlover]

Corpe's estimates for WWY:

Opening Weekend: ¥1.115 billion ($10.4 million) / 820,000 admissions.
3-Day Total: ¥1.540 billion ($14.3 million) / 1,125,000 admissions

 

So in yen, that's actually a slightly lower 2-day opening weekend number than Aladdin. To be honest, I expected more, since it had a HUGE release. But legs is what really matters in Japan, especially for big movies like this. I also heard it's well-received, so 15 billion yen ($140m) is still the target.

[catlover]

16 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

The problem with anime is they often skewed younger and fan base oriented, hard to achieve 4 quadrant like as Miyaozaki and Shinkai's films. How high can an anime go normally associated how much they can extend beyond their target demo. 

 

   

Like Detective Conan, that was actually very fan base oriented, but in recent years it managed to extend their target audience beyond that, to make close to 10B yen. Although I don't know how they did that.

Edited July 21, 2019 by catlover

[UserHN]

18 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

My estimates for Makoto Shinkai's Weathering With You:


(C)2019「天気の子」製作委員会

Opening Weekend: ¥1.115 billion ($10.4 million) / 820,000 admissions.
3-Day Total: ¥1.540 billion ($14.3 million) / 1,125,000 admissions.

This opening is remarkably the fourth film to debut above ¥1 billion this year. And it's about 20% higher than the opening weekend of Shinkai's previous film Your Name.. 

Reviews and audience scores are strong (averaging 4/5), so we can probably expect a pretty long run. I doubt its legs come anywhere near those of Your Name.'s, but it will probably settle somewhere between 10-15 (10 isn't uncommon this time of year, and 14/15 is a common range for a well-received film like this). I know that's a wide range, but accurately pin-pointing multipliers at this stage for a film like this isn't easy. That would put its total in a wide range of ¥11.5-¥17.0 billion ($105-160 million), but look for its range total to become more clear in the coming weeks.

I would say it's the slight favorite to win the year right now since it has a higher ceiling than Aladdin or Toy Story 4, with both of them being on track for around ¥12 billion ($110 million), so it could be a three-way battle in the end if Weathering With You falls on the low-end of its expected multiplier.

Forgotten Frozen 2?

[SchumacherFTW]

17 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Forgotten Frozen 2?

Frozen 2 probably won't count towards 2019 box office. 

[Sunny Max]

9 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Frozen 2 probably won't count towards 2019 box office. 

its November 2019 Release ...

 

 

[SchumacherFTW]

1 minute ago, Sunny Max said:

its November 2019 Release ...

 

 

Japan's got some funny rules about what year a film comes out. December counts towards 2020, and if a movie makes a certain amount in the following box office year then it counts to the second one. It's weird. 

[Sunny Max]

2 hours ago, Sunny Max said:

Japan box office  (20-21 July)

 

Weathering With You :- $10.5 M / $14.5 M

Toy Story 4 :- $7.7 M / $36.8 M

Aladdin :- $3.7 M / $96.7 M

Far From Home :- $1.5 M / $24.8 M

@Omni TS4 around 40% drop ... hmm 

[Jiffy]

TS4 still has a $10m lead over TS3 through 2nd weekend, but I'll just be satisfied if it cracks $100m since that seemed so unthinkable prior to its release.

[Omni]

Let's see how it holds next week. With summer weekdays it should still be good for 100M dollars at the very least. Of course unless LK hurts it like WWY did.

[RealLyre]

which movie will win the Japanese box office this year? Aladdin or WWY? think it'll be very close..

 

[XXR vs XXR]

11 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

which movie will win the Japanese box office this year? Aladdin or WWY? think it'll be very close..

 

 

Between those 2? Aladdin. 

But if we're talking all films then Frozen 2.

[KP1025]

6 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

which movie will win the Japanese box office this year? Aladdin or WWY? think it'll be very close..

 

 

Right now, I'd give the advantage to WWY. Aladdin's late legs have taken a hit lately with TS4, WWY, and soon to be TLK cutting into its screen count. High profile domestic releases like WWY tend to keep screens easier and can have extremely long and leggy runs. Your Name was in theaters for almost a year, whereas Disney will push the Aladdin Blu-ray/DVD release in just a few months and end its theatrical run.  

[The GOAT]

sequel to Your Name?

[SchumacherFTW]

7 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

sequel to Your Name?

Director's follow up, not a sequel. 

[Olive]

If Frozen 2 makes most of its BO after Dec.1, it will be counted as a 2020 film.

It will be.

[RealLyre]

Frozen 2 can win the 2020 Japan box office if nothing surprises (but you never know with Japan and there are almost always sleeper hits)

[KP1025]

14 minutes ago, Olive said:

If Frozen 2 makes most of its BO after Dec.1, it will be counted as a 2020 film.

It will be.

This is generally the rule but for some reason, they allowed Bohemian Rhapsody to count as a 2018 film despite making most of its money after December 1. I suspect it was to make the year look better since there was no other 2018 film over ¥10 billion.