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Looking ahead to the final four major Hollywood films of this year and how they might play in South Korea.

 

THG: Mockingjay part one (11/20)

Previous films


-The Hunger Games: 607,956 admissions ($3,951,587 gross)
-Catching Fire: 1,125,739 admissions ($7,347,573 gross)

Prediction: Interest seems to be very high at the moment, but it's likely that this is from an existing fan base from previous films. I don't think it will be able to connect with the general audience on a level that interstellar has been able to. 2 million admissions would be a very respectable increase for this film but it could easily lose out against the behemoth Interstellar and finish with less.

 

Fury (11/20)

Previous Brad Pitt hit movies


-World War Z: 5,237,525 admissions ($33,635,674 gross)
-Ocean's 13: 1,386,610 admissions ($9,708,656 gross)
-The curious case of Benjamin Button: 1,767,051 admissions ($8,663,157 gross)

Prediction: War films are a popular theme in Korea but that's only when it comes to local films. Pearl Harbor managed a respectable 3.18 million admissions but the box office was a different dynamic to the box office of today. With Interstellar still going strong I think this movie will fail to lift off the runway. 1.5 million admissions.

 

Exodus: gods and kings (12/03)

Previous Ridley Scott hit movies


-Robin Hood: 1,596,574 admissions ($9,306,757 gross)
-Gladiator: 1,242,055 admissions
-Kingdom of heaven: 1,484,000 admissions ($8,720,877 gross)

Prediction: Ridley Scott isn't the most successful of directors in Korea, none of his films have managed even 2 million admissions. Unfortunately for Exodus, I'm feeling zero hype for it at the moment. Having said that, if no local release changes their release date then I think this is a decent time for it to be released. People will flock to see it for it's visuals but legs will most likely be cut by highly anticipated local films coming after it. Noah level performance of 2 million admissions would be decent for Exodus. I don't see it going past 3 million admissions at best.

 

The Hobbit: The battle of the five armies (12/17)

Previous Hobbit installments


-An unexpected Journey: 2,818,993 admissions ($21,688,449 gross)
-Desolation of Smaug: 2,282,807 admissions ($16,392,050 gross)

Prediction: The LOTR series was huge in Korea amassing more than 5 million admissions back when the box office was half the size it is now. The Hobbit series have been underwhelming in comparison. DoS even managed to decrease from AoU although this was largely due to disagreements between WB and several theatre chains leading to restrictions in screens and showtimes. The battle of the five armies shouldn't face this problem and with a cracking release date (right before winter holidays) I'm confident it will manage more than 3 million admissions. Assuming the quality of the film doesn't change dramatically from the first two films, somewhere between 3-4 million admissions should be the goal.

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South Korea Daily Box Office (November 17)

 
-Admissions---- (total) ------- gross--(Drops from LW)-[screens]-
 
01. 210,410  (5,054,297)   $1.502M    (-7.67%)        [1,282] 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
02.   35,194     (458,718)      $211K         (--)                [494]  
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
03.     8,757  (1,684,575)        $61K     (-49.1%)           [266]  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
04.     8,484     (548,761)        $54K     (-58.8%)           [350]  
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
05.     6,457       (58,440)        $40K         (--)                [305]   
 
Total admissions: 283,282
Total Gross: $1.969 million
 
Interstellar cume: $36.747 million (40.36B won)
 

Current presales
01. 81.2% (174,879) Interstellar
02.   3.0%      (6,526) The Hunger Games: MJ1
03.   3.0%      (6,459) Cart
04.   1.5%      (3,268) Dad for rent
05.   1.4%      (2,940) My love, don't cross that river

 

 

 

Admissions

Adm Total

Gross

Drops from LW

Screens

Title

1

210,410

5,054,297

$1.502M

(-7.67%)

1,282

Interstellar

2

35,194

458,718

$211K

(--)

494

Cart

3

8,757

1,684,575

$61K

(-49.1%)

266

Gone girl

4

8,484

548,761

$54K

(-58.0%)

350

Fashion King

5

6,457

58,440

$41K

(--)

305

The Other Woman

 

Edited by Rsyu
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South Korea Daily Box Office (November 17)

 

-Admissions---- (total) ------- gross--(Drops from LW)-[screens]- <Title>

 

01. 208,768  (5,052,657)   $1.490M    (-7.67%)        [1,281] <Interstellar>

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

02.   35,194     (458,718)      $211K         (--)                [494] <Cart> 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

03.     8,757  (1,684,575)        $61K     (-49.1%)           [266] <Gone girl> 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

04.     8,484     (548,761)        $54K     (-58.8%)           [350] <Fashion King> 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

05.     6,457       (58,440)        $41K         (--)                [305] <The Other Women>  

 

Total admissions: 283,282

Total Gross: $1.969 million

 

Interstellar cume: $36.735 million (40.347B won)

 
Current presales
01. 81.2% (174,879) Interstellar
02.   3.0%      (6,526) The Hunger Games: MJ1
03.   3.0%      (6,459) Cart
04.   1.5%      (3,268) Dad for rent
05.   1.4%      (2,940) My love, don't cross that river

 

 

Is that 7.67% drop from last Monday or is it from the day before (Nov. 16th)? Either way it's an awesome hold.

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South Korea Daily Box Office (November 17)

 

-Admissions---- (total) ------- gross--(Drops from LW)-[screens]- <Title>

 

01. 208,768  (5,052,657)   $1.490M    (-7.67%)        [1,281] <Interstellar>

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

02.   35,194     (458,718)      $211K         (--)                [494] <Cart> 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

03.     8,757  (1,684,575)        $61K     (-49.1%)           [266] <Gone girl> 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

04.     8,484     (548,761)        $54K     (-58.8%)           [350] <Fashion King> 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

05.     6,457       (58,440)        $41K         (--)                [305] <The Other Women>  

 

Total admissions: 283,282

Total Gross: $1.969 million

 

Interstellar cume: $36.735 million (40.347B won)

 
Current presales
01. 81.2% (174,879) Interstellar
02.   3.0%      (6,526) The Hunger Games: MJ1
03.   3.0%      (6,459) Cart
04.   1.5%      (3,268) Dad for rent
05.   1.4%      (2,940) My love, don't cross that river

 

 

Should be easily 40mil before entering 3rd weekend. 70% drop from Sun, considered ok?

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Yes it's last monday  and it's a good drop. If Interstellar holds well against fury and MJ1, then 2 million admissions should happen for week 3. at the very least 1.6 million admissions should happen. 7 million admissions is locked and 8 million is possible.

Edited by Rsyu
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Interstellar crossed 5 million admissions on it's 12th day of it's release. Frozen and Avatar, the only two foreign releases to make it past 10 million admissions, took 17 and 15 days respectively to reach this milestone. 

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Fury is not even in the top five in presales. Will it bomb? Sony sent Brad Pitt to South Korea, But it seems it didn't work.

 

It could have done better with a more favourable release date but at the moment it looks like it will début in third place behind Interstellar and Mj1. It will only be considered a bomb if it fails to pass 1 million admissions. 1-1.5 million admissions would fall into the good but not great category. Anything above 1.5 million admissions would make it a solid hit in my opinion. 

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Is there any word on Big Hero's release date yet?

 

I'm Asssuming January again, but can't see anything yet.

January for sure but the exact date is to be determined. I wouldn't be surprised if they go with Frozen's release date.

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South Korea Daily Box Office (November 18)

-Admissions---- (total) ------- gross--(Drops from LW)-[screens]- <Title>

01. 202,037 (5,256,309)   $1.425M      (-13.9%)        [1,314] <Interstellar>
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
02.   36,465    (495,487)      $222K            (--)               [520] <Cart>
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
03.     9,496    (558,341)        $56K       (-55.9%)           [350] <Fashion King>
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
04.     9,170 (1,693,846)        $64K       (-52.3%)           [275] <Gone girl>
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
05.     6,901      (65,407)        $42K            (--)               [319] <The Other Women>

Total admissions: 285,387
Total Gross: $1.952 million

Interstellar cume: $38.172 million (41.915B won)


Current presales
01. 74.7% (201,485) Interstellar
02.   8.6%    (23,196) The Hunger Games: MJ1
03.   3.7%      (9,961) Fury
04.   2.8%      (7,589) Cart
05.   1.6%      (2,940) Big match

Edited by Rsyu
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Steeper weekly drop than yesterday, but still a really good number. Thanks for posting the updates, Rsyu.  :)

Tue rose from monday last week but fell this week. Possibly because there are people waiting to see MJ1 this week. Hope wednesday can stay above 200K

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