China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

Could it be worse than Solo? Warner Bros. should really learn the spirit of Disney, seeing how they treat Solo as a precious after the flop of The Last Jedi.

rebellions are built on hope. 

[Fake]

IW has crossed 2B!! 

 

Today was just 21m. Weekend looking like

 

Thu: 18

Fri: 25 (+40%)

Sat: 50 (+100%)

Sun: 35 (-30%)

 

Will finish with 2220-2230M it seems ($350M).

[POTUS 2020]

Should bump 40% on Friday but I set it at 27% just in case Solo breaks out

up to $355m if it bumps 40% on Friday and has -10% holds next week 

FF8						IW					CA3
Day	Yn	DoD	WoW	Tot	$Tot	Yn	DoD	WoW	Tot	$Tot	Yn	DoD	WoW	Tot	$Tot
Fri	417			480	70	387			446	70	181			198	30
Sat	488	17.0%		968	141	493	27.5%		939	148	249	37.6%		447	69
Sun	385	-21.1%		1353	197	332	-32.8%		1271	201	180	-27.7%		627	96
Mon	163	-57.7%		1516	220	109	-67.1%		1380	218	60	-66.7%		687	106
Tues	121	-25.8%		1637	238	81	-25.7%		1461	231	49	-18.3%		736	113
Wed	94	-22.3%		1731	252	65	-20.0%		1525	241	40	-18.4%		776	119
Thur	77	-18.1%		1808	263	53	-19.0%		1578	249	33	-17.5%		809	124
Fri	103	33.8%	-75.3%	1911	278	72	36.4%	-81.5%	1649	260	49	48.5%	-72.9%	858	132
Sat	160	55.3%	-67.2%	2071	301	142	98.2%	-71.2%	1791	282	92	87.8%	-63.1%	950	146
Sun	117	-26.9%	-69.6%	2188	318	132	-7.0%	VD day	1923	303	67	-27.2%	-62.8%	1017	156
Mon	42	-64.1%	-74.2%	2230	324	31.5	-76.1%	-71.1%	1955	308	20.0	-70.1%	-66.7%	1037	160
Tue	37	-11.9%	-69.4%	2267	330	25.1	-20.3%	-69.0%	1980	312	18.0	-10.0%	-63.3%	1055	162
Wed	33	-10.8%	-64.9%	2300	334	20.9	-16.7%	-67.7%	2001	315	15.4	-14.4%	-61.5%	1070	165
Thu	29	-12.1%	-62.3%	2329	339	18.0	-13.9%	-65.7%	2019	318	13.8	-10.4%	-58.2%	1084	167
Fri	30	3.4%	-70.9%	2359	343	23.0	27.8%	-67.9%	2042	322	24.0	73.9%	VD Day	1108	170
Sat	60	100.0%	-62.5%	2419	352	46.0	100.0%	-67.6%	2088	329	31.0	29.2%	-66.3%	1139	175
Sun	75	25.0%	-35.9%	2494	363	33.5	-27.2%	-74.6%	2121	334	23.6	-23.9%	-64.8%	1163	179
Mon	58	-22.7%	38.1%	2552	371	11.0	-67.2%	-65.1%	2132	336	7.5	-68.2%	-62.5%	1170	180
Tue	18	-69.0%	-51.4%	2570	374	9.5	-13.6%	-62.2%	2142	337	6.9	-8.0%	-61.7%	1177	181
Wed	14	-22.2%	-57.6%	2584	376	8.3	-12.6%	-60.3%	2150	339	6.3	-8.3%	-58.9%	1184	182
Thu	13	-7.1%	-55.2%	2597	377	7.1	-14.5%	-60.6%	2157	340	6.1	-3.6%	-55.8%	1190	183
.
Fri	8	-38.5%	-73.3%	2605	379	8.0	12.7%	-65.2%	2165	341	6	-1.6%	-75.0%	1196	184
Sat	13.4	67.5%	-77.7%	2618	381	16.0	100.0%	-65.2%	2181	343	13	115.0%	-58.4%	1209	186
Sun	11.4	-14.9%	-84.8%	2630	382	12.0	-25.0%	-64.2%	2193	345	11	-18.6%	-55.5%	1219	188
				2670	388				2223	350				1244	191

Edited May 23, 2018 by POTUS

[Olive]

MH2 2237m

Its gonna be close..

[Valonqar]

42 minutes ago, Fake said:

IW has crossed 2B!! 

 

 

Shit, for a moment I thought 2B USD. 

[nguyenkhoi282]

This movie never lets us rest for a sec. 665M domestic is gonna be real close, same for 985M OS-China. And now China real close to 350M. Things have been like this since domestic OW lol

[bangbingchan]

3 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Could it be worse than Solo? Warner Bros. should really learn the spirit of Disney, seeing how they treat Solo as a precious after the flop of The Last Jedi.

Ocean's eight can easily beat solo for sure.If Ocean's eight Get a release June 8,it might double than Solo.Such a shame WB give up 

[bangbingchan]

4 hours ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

How much you'd think it would make if it got a release? I noticed the previous entries didn't get a release either.

If this Get a release June 8,it will easily crack $20M.$30M is possible.it's much better than solo.Anne Hathaway is a draw.Buzz is not that weak here.WB China already Get $450M this year.So they don't care about another $20M.Tomb Raider $90m.RPO $210M+ Rampage $150M+ That's Why WB think $20M is a flop.

Edited May 23, 2018 by bangbingchan

[bangbingchan]

6 hours ago, pepsa said:

Well I got to give it to the Hobbit trilogie. Lotr was also a more traditional market movie. And it didn't do what it was expected to do in 2012 with only $50m. But the second one did $75m (50% increase) and the last one did $122m dollar (64% increase). Wonder if more instalments would have increased even further. 

Fantastic Beasts will be a suitable comparison.Harry Potter once was popular.FB1 was just okay.4 films in the fulture may increase.

[Omni]

Legs for IW have been pretty atocious. If not for the lack of competition it would have struggled to reach Black Panther's abysmal multiplier.

I would have never imagined I could be so disappointed by a 330M+ gross in China.

 

[pepsa]

16 minutes ago, Omni said:

Legs for IW have been pretty atocious. If not for the lack of competition it would have struggled to reach Black Panther's abysmal multiplier.

I would have never imagined I could be so disappointed by a 330M+ gross in China.

 

 

Yeah legs aren't good at all with this litle competition. But it was apperent from OW that it was verry presale and hype heavy. I don't think the movie had bad WoM. 

[POTUS 2020]

18 minutes ago, Omni said:

Legs for IW have been pretty atocious. If not for the lack of competition it would have struggled to reach Black Panther's abysmal multiplier.

I would have never imagined I could be so disappointed by a 330M+ gross in China.

 

Soon they will have enough seats for everyone to see it the first weekend. There will be no more OWm

[Brainbug]

22 minutes ago, Omni said:

Legs for IW have been pretty atocious. If not for the lack of competition it would have struggled to reach Black Panther's abysmal multiplier.

I would have never imagined I could be so disappointed by a 330M+ gross in China.

 

 

Lol. You dont seem to understand how the Chinese Box office works. Ill explain it really fast for you:

 

1. China has so many theaters and screens that everyone who wants to see Infinity War can find a seat on Opening Weekend.

2. Movies that develop strong legs in China either a) open relatively small (Zootopia, Coco) and get strong WOM or b they can open big, but strike a nerve in the chinese public and bring people to the theaters that originally werent going to see it (WW2, Operation Red Sea).

 

Hype-driven franchise movies (and especially sequels) like IW fall in the first category.

 

Because China has so many screens and builds more every year, it could be possible that even some well-received movies in the future have a multiplier under 0,5, because everyone who wanted to see it has already done that after OW. Look at Fate of the Furious: That was very well received in China and still dropped 70% in its 2nd weekend - a performance quite similar to IW, which is way @POTUS and Co. are comparing IW's run to it.

 

I hope you understood all of that.

[Omni]

Thanks for telling me things I already knew.

And despite that, most people who already had that 2-cent knowledge were expecting a multiplier higher than 1.8x.

[pepsa]

4 minutes ago, Omni said:

Thanks for telling me things I already knew.

And despite that, most people who already had that 2-cent knowledge were expecting a multiplier higher than 1.8x.

Ok but isn't it then you own fault? If you knew that before, why did you still think it would do beter than 1.8.

[Thrylos 7]

41 minutes ago, Omni said:

Thanks for telling me things I already knew.

And despite that, most people who already had that 2-cent knowledge were expecting a multiplier higher than 1.8x.

Agreed , its legs are horrible but we kind of knew that from its ow that fell WAY short of what the presales were showing. With good legs, by Chinese standards , this would have done around 420 million. 

[kswiston]

3 hours ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

This movie never lets us rest for a sec. 665M domestic is gonna be real close, same for 985M OS-China. And now China real close to 350M. Things have been like this since domestic OW lol

 

665M domestic is a lowball. IW should be around 630M domestic by this coming Monday.  It will make more than double this weekend's 3-day after that. Nothing major comes out until Incredibles 2. 

[John Rambo]

7 hours ago, firedeep said:

So Ocean's Eight is confirmed not to get a release as WB think it would flop in China, i.e. unworthy.

Are they mad? If Keeping with the Joneses can release in China why not this  This looks like a potential 20-30m movie...

[Barnack]

23 minutes ago, John Rambo said:

Are they mad? If Keeping with the Joneses can release in China why not this  This looks like a potential 20-30m movie...

2 different type of movies and that is important with the very limited revenues sharing import slot system in the China market. There is certain film a studio will accept to be played in China without having a share of the gross, they will not engage in that practice with a movie like this, really bad precedent to set.

 

And if you want to get 25% of the box office, you need to have access and burn an import slot:

http://chinafilminsider.com/how-many-import-slots-does-each-studio-get/

https://sites.duke.edu/djepapers/files/2016/10/sabrina-mccutchan-dje.pdf

 

There is around 36 slot in a year, for the 6 studios and a couple of other player to share, Warner achieved to get around 5/6 a year in recent year's.

 

You release Rampage, Tomb Raider and Ready Player One for sure, that is already 3 slot.

 

For sure WB will want to release The Meg, Mowgli, Potter, Aquaman (or maybe one of those will be next year to save one), but that is already 7 China movie for just one studio, I would imagine they simply could not fit a movie like Ocean's 8 in, would not be surprised if that franchise would mean little there.

 

Like I said if you do not achieve to qualify for the revenues sharing program you can have a buyer that you can sell to for a local distributor for a fixed fee, but those are really small amount and not a practice studio want to encourage, specially not for a small-mid budget franchise movie like this.

 

 

[a2k]

51 minutes ago, Barnack said:

2 different type of movies and that is important with the very limited revenues sharing import slot system in the China market. There is certain film a studio will accept to be played in China without having a share of the gross, they will not engage in that practice with a movie like this, really bad precedent to set.

 

And if you want to get 25% of the box office, you need to have access and burn an import slot:

http://chinafilminsider.com/how-many-import-slots-does-each-studio-get/

https://sites.duke.edu/djepapers/files/2016/10/sabrina-mccutchan-dje.pdf

 

There is around 36 slot in a year, for the 6 studios and a couple of other player to share, Warner achieved to get around 5/6 a year in recent year's.

 

You release Rampage, Tomb Raider and Ready Player One for sure, that is already 3 slot.

 

For sure WB will want to release The Meg, Mowgli, Potter, Aquaman (or maybe one of those will be next year to save one), but that is already 7 China movie for just one studio, I would imagine they simply could not fit a movie like Ocean's 8 in, would not be surprised if that franchise would mean little there.

 

Like I said if you do not achieve to qualify for the revenues sharing program you can have a buyer that you can sell to for a local distributor for a fixed fee, but those are really small amount and not a practice studio want to encourage, specially not for a small-mid budget franchise movie like this.

 

 

All those 4 cannot afford to loose China. If WB are out of a spot AQM moving to Jan release makes the most sense as it's releasing mid-Dec anyway. AIW China was also 2 weeks after the Dom ow.