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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

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1 hour ago, Olive said:

Monday Est - June 11th,2018

How Long Will I Love U 10.4M/836.5M, -48.4% 

Toilet Hero 8.35m/66.67m , -59%
Happiness Is Coming 6.95M/52.8m, -51% 
Infinity War 5.88M/2,354m, -62% 
Black Water 3.25M/43.8M , -63%
Doraemon the Movie : 1.33M/198.8M, -85%

A Quite Place 0.81M/217M, -40%
Rampage 0.7M/1003.2M -53%
Perfetti sconosciuti 0.6M/50.42M  -56%
Ranger Solo 0.34M/105.2M, -59%

What's your prediction for Incredibles 2 in China? Can it gross $100M?

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11 hours ago, Olive said:

Monday Est - June 11th,2018

How Long Will I Love U 10.4M/836.5M, -48.4% 

Toilet Hero 8.35m/66.67m , -59%
Happiness Is Coming 6.95M/52.8m, -51% 
Infinity War 5.88M/2,354m, -62% 
Black Water 3.25M/43.8M , -63%
Doraemon the Movie : 1.33M/198.8M, -85%

A Quite Place 0.81M/217M, -40%
Rampage 0.7M/1003.2M -53%
Perfetti sconosciuti 0.6M/50.42M  -56%
Ranger Solo 0.34M/105.2M, -59%

How much is that in usd for Black Water?

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21 hours ago, Olive said:

Not likely.

is there a reason for that? original animated hollywood films seems to be pretty spontaneous in China? I mean didn't Coco have a low opening? same with zootopia

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48 minutes ago, Ranger Tree said:

is there a reason for that? original animated hollywood films seems to be pretty spontaneous in China? I mean didn't Coco have a low opening? same with zootopia

the 2nd highest Pixar movie only made 40M.

Coco is too special.

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IW only going to have 1% of shows on Friday.  I doubt it gets any back through the weekend as JW should bump well on Sat and there are 3 more local releases. It may only make 13m/$2m for DBF but will get shows back the following weekend. High $370s still expected.  $380m getting out of reach.

 

Edited by POTUS
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5 minutes ago, peludo said:

The biggest Pixar film (excepting Coco) is about $40m.

Even so. With this being a supers film, Coco having paved a path, and the short in front of this they should be able to get it there. If not it has gotta be a disappointment

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4 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

Weak if they can't get Incredibles 2 to 100M in China.  

 

Apart from Coco, every Pixar film flopped in China. I dont expect anything huge from there honestly.

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7 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

Even so. With this being a supers film, Coco having paved a path, and the short in front of this they should be able to get it there. If not it has gotta be a disappointment

Maybe the SH factor can make it to do bigger numbers than usual Pixar flicks, but I would no expect something extraordinary. Coco was a very special case.

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1 minute ago, Rumpot said:

Even so. With this being a supers film, Coco having paved a path, and the short in front of this they should be able to get it there. If not it has gotta be a disappointment

Here we go again.

I'm tired of people calling movie a disappointment because they don't meet their unreasonable expectation. IW then FK and now I2.

Every Pixar movies except Coco flopped in China. Even Coco had a very weak OW, you can't expect every Pixar movies to recreate Coco's unique situation.

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8 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

Even so. With this being a supers film, Coco having paved a path, and the short in front of this they should be able to get it there. If not it has gotta be a disappointment

It might do $100m or more, but I woud not count on it, only a small chance. You do know that Pixar isn't a building up thing, it's not because a pixar movie does X amount of dollars, that other movies of pixar will do the same or more. It's not building thing, more each individual movie on it's own.

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34 minutes ago, a2k said:

@Fake @firedeep @POTUS @ZeeSoh @Olive Is 900m 4-day possible for FK?

Based on the holiday, it would likely need a 165m OD based on the following trajectory that me and @ZeeSoh thought would be appropriate yesterday.

 

165m

264m (+60%)

277m (+5%)

194m (-30%)

= 900m 4-Day total

 

The main factor in these jumps will be WOM, if it's toxic then expect more like +50/-5/-35 or so, if it's excellent something more like +70/+10/-25 is possible. With presales currently at 33.8m for OD, it'll probably end about 36-38m today, with a 60-90% jump tomorrow to 57-72m final presales, then a Pre Sales Multiplier (PSM) of 2.3-2.9 is required. Most films were doing 4 PSM, but the bigger the opening, the smaller the PSM seems to be. IW hit a new low for PSM, but JW:FK should be able to hit 2.5-3.0 PSM. 

 

So at the moment, 900m seems like a likely scenario for the 4-day

Edited by feasby007
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