China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[POTUS 2020]

6 minutes ago, ymblcza said:

A Quiet Place presales (1.84M 3days+8h before opening) is on par with RPO (1.84M 3d+5h) and Tomb Raider (2.05M 3d+5.5h) , both final presales reached 13M, so it's very likely to do 10M presales and 30M OD and 120M ($19M) final gross even with bad wom

could be 40m OD from 10mPS, 4x the norm these days, 130mOW,   200m/$30m+ Total

Edited May 14, 2018 by POTUS

[abra]

Monday	F8	LAST HOUR F8	IW	LAST HOUR IW	F8-IW
1PM	49,58		41,24		8,34
2PM	59,68	10,10	47,76	6,52	11,92
3PM	69,40	9,72	54,23	6,47	15,17
4PM	79,00	9,60	60,53	6,30	18,47
5PM	89,26	10,26	67,31	6,78	21,95
6PM	101,23	11,97		-	-
7PM	118,28	17,05		-	-
8PM	135,34	17,06		-	-
9PM	148,70	13,36		-	-
10PM	160,01	11,31		-	-

 

[a2k]

118-124 mon i think; 62-64% drop.

[ymblcza]

15 minutes ago, POTUS said:

could be 40m OD from 10mPS, 4x the norm these days, 130mOW,   200m/$30m+ Total

horrors may be very unfriendly to GA, that could be reality with a 7.x maoyan score. And Sat's presale is quite weak also.

[fmpro]

Still doing 65% of FF8 every hour. If that holds up 116-117 should happen by 10pm

[Fake]

FF8 had similar presales as IW I believe. It added around 140M during the day. The midpoint for the Monday additions was 5:15 PM approx.

 

IW should get 5:00PM as worst case and 5:30PM as best case. The corresponding figures would be 112M and 120M.

Edited May 14, 2018 by Fake

[abra]

Monday	F8	LAST HOUR F8	IW	LAST HOUR IW	F8-IW
1PM	49,58		41,24		8,34
2PM	59,68	10,10	47,76	6,52	11,92
3PM	69,40	9,72	54,23	6,47	15,17
4PM	79,00	9,60	60,53	6,30	18,47
5PM	89,26	10,26	67,31	6,78	21,95
6PM	101,23	11,97	74,97	7,66	26,26
7PM	118,28	17,05		-	-
8PM	135,34	17,06		-	-
9PM	148,70	13,36		-	-
10PM	160,01	11,31		-	-

 

[abra]

Monday	F8	LAST HOUR F8	IW	LAST HOUR IW	F8-IW
1PM	49,58		41,24		8,34
2PM	59,68	10,10	47,76	6,52	11,92
3PM	69,40	9,72	54,23	6,47	15,17
4PM	79,00	9,60	60,53	6,30	18,47
5PM	89,26	10,26	67,31	6,78	21,95
6PM	101,23	11,97	74,97	7,66	26,26
7PM	118,28	17,05	84,62	9,65	33,66
8PM	135,34	17,06		-	-
9PM	148,70	13,36		-	-
10PM	160,01	11,31		-	-

 

[a2k]

50 minutes ago, abra said:

Monday	F8	LAST HOUR F8	IW	LAST HOUR IW	F8-IW
1PM	49,58		41,24		8,34
2PM	59,68	10,10	47,76	6,52	11,92
3PM	69,40	9,72	54,23	6,47	15,17
4PM	79,00	9,60	60,53	6,30	18,47
5PM	89,26	10,26	67,31	6,78	21,95
6PM	101,23	11,97	74,97	7,66	26,26
7PM	118,28	17,05	84,62	9,65	33,66
8PM	135,34	17,06		-	-
9PM	148,70	13,36		-	-
10PM	160,01	11,31		-	-

 

lower than expected bump innit? 120 looks gone with that. 84.62 + 11 + 8 + 6.5 = 110 (-67%)

Edited May 14, 2018 by A2k Raptor

[POTUS 2020]

16 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

lower than expected bump innit? 120 looks gone with that. 84.62 + 11 + 8 + 6 = 110 (-67%)

3pm midpoint on a weekday. never seen that before

[Istealnames]

Looks like we will see heavy drop offs.

[Stewart]

16 minutes ago, POTUS said:

3pm midpoint on a weekday. never seen that before

It seems IW is forever defying trends of the CBO

[Omni]

3 hours ago, POTUS said:

You're back and on the negative side as usual, don't get ulcers over this. Numbers are just fine.  I havent chatted with you in over a year. How you been?

Fine! No ulcer, though I needed 400M from China for IW to overtake TFA, and it's becoming more and more unlikely.

You?

 

Yes, I'm on the negative side (as you keep being on the overprojecting one :P), but unfortunately that also seems the right one when projecting daily trajectories for IW in China. With today we get 5/5. 95M tomorrow, and we won't get it.

[POTUS 2020]

1 minute ago, Omni said:

Fine! No ulcer, though I needed 400M from China for IW to overtake TFA, and it's becoming more and more unlikely.

You?

 

Yes, I'm on the negative side (as you keep being on the overprojecting one :P), but unfortunately that also seems the right one when projecting daily trajectories for IW in China. With today we get 5/5. 95M tomorrow, and we won't get it.

all is well with me, living in malta now

yup 20-25% drop likely, 80m something happening

[Fake]

5 hours ago, POTUS said:

Assuming 115m happen. Im looking for it play out like this

 

Mon  115

Tues  92 -20%

Wed  74 -20%

Thu   59  -20%                 1607m/$254m  week

 

Fri     82 +40%   -79% WoW

Sat  148 +80%   -70%

Sun  108 -27%    -67%     

 

2nd W/E     338m -72%     1945m/$307m  10 day

2nd Week   433m -73%     2040m/$322m  14 day

 

3rd week    147m  -66%  

4th week      50m  -66%    2237m/$353m  

 

Second weekend could be over 75% but third or fourth weekend could be in the 50s. Childrens day on the 4th friday will bump it a little

We need to see better than 20% holds this week to see high $300s.  15% average daily drop to get to $400m

 

 

I doubt it can get to $400M.

 

My projections are very similar to yours till Friday... after that it takes a slightly conservative direction.

 

OW: 1270

 

Mon-Thu: 110/90/75/60 (1.605B)

Fri-Sun: 80/140/100 (1.925B)

 

Mon-Thu: 100 (2.025B)

Fri-Sun: 100 (2.125B)

 

Rest: 100 (2.225B finish)

[abra]

Monday	F8	LAST HOUR F8	IW	LAST HOUR IW	F8-IW
1PM	49,58		41,24		8,34
2PM	59,68	10,10	47,76	6,52	11,92
3PM	69,40	9,72	54,23	6,47	15,17
4PM	79,00	9,60	60,53	6,30	18,47
5PM	89,26	10,26	67,31	6,78	21,95
6PM	101,23	11,97	74,97	7,66	26,26
7PM	118,28	17,05	84,62	9,65	33,66
8PM	135,34	17,06	94,31	9,69	41,03
9PM	148,70	13,36		-	-
10PM	160,01	11,31		-	-

 

[GraceRandolph]

30 minutes ago, Istealnames said:

Looks like we will see heavy drop offs.

Yikes. I thought this was supposed to do 400M? 

[UserHN]

4 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

Yikes. I thought this was supposed to do 400M? 

Oh look who's talking. Where's the livestream of you eating a crow?

[pepsa]

5 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

Yikes. I thought this was supposed to do 400M? 

 

Wasn't it supposed to do $200m total? 

[ZeeSoh]

6 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

Yikes. I thought this was supposed to do 400M? 

I thought we were supposed to see you eating crow on a live stream.

 

what happened to that promise?