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iceroll

Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

By iceroll, in Numbers and Data

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Heretic Global Phenomenon

Heretic

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The midnight number is good. Unless you were being un-realistic and predicting over 20m, most had it pegged somewhere between 12-16m, so 13m is a more than satisfactory start, and enough to get this easily over the 100m mark.All is good.

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Noctis Global Phenomenon

Noctis

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I agree with ShawnMR. He's right that the Potter and Twilight movies have always had a much larger rush than any franchise in history (and I have a feeling SW will soon follow suit but not quit to their extent).I'm not saying $13m is a bad number. It isn't. But is it great? Of course not, but I don't think we can determine how it will perform until we see Sunday estimates. But it's definitely not the behemoth many (and I thought it would do $1.5b-$1.6b before when it was announced) predicted it to be. And I remember telling ShawnMR that it's not fair to compare TH1 to TPM in terms of appeal and popularity. The Hobbit was never going to come within even a fifth of it in terms of hype. And clearly, hype for this is decent, but not strong.

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spizzer Box Office Gold

spizzer

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Lots of revisionist history here imo. First you guys come out and say this has a massive fanbase and now that the midnight comes in at a mediocre 13 mill, it has a moderate, non rushing fanbase.Sorry, I'm staying out of this now as there are too many people talking out of both sides of their mouths.

I think that's looking at it far too "black and white." It's not necessarily going to be one way or the other. A film can have a rabid fanbase that spreads out over the OW as opposed to just the first showings (midnights/10PM), and still be considered frontloaded, and vice-versa. That's not to say that there isn't a bit of revisionist history going on here, just that I wouldn't look at it quite like that.
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ChD Global Phenomenon

ChD

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The midnights numbers are good... you expect summer numbers in the middle of December... Seriously. Even if it makes only "$105M" it still would be a big hit.

Oh, yeah... No chance this is doing 50 pages by Saturday.

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Shawn Robbins Global Phenomenon

Shawn Robbins

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Revisionist history can be good or bad. Predicting box office isn't an exact science, so we're always learning new things that challenge conventional thinking. Remember Avatar? Its midnight and OW numbers had those of us calling for a modest $250m run ready to scream victory. Look what happened...

The one thing I've learned in all my years of studying this crap is that we never really do stop learning. That's one reason I've enjoyed it so much... in a sick way. :lol:

Edited by ShawnMR
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#ED Global Phenomenon

#ED

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It's a terrible tragedy (and really hits me hard because I have a young toddler) but honestly, when I check the news every day there's always another atrocity happening -- if not here in the States then elsewhere in the world. I have a hard time thinking this one will affect the box office.

True, but so much for the media caring about how The Hobbit does this weekend.
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ChD Global Phenomenon

ChD

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Just wait for the weekend.

I don't think it opened on Wednesday everywhere... I mean, at least not here (in Romania). I think that only a few countries opened on Wednesday, which makes the numbers still good.Might be wrong, though. Edited by ChD
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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

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I think you're misunderstanding, at least in regard to me if that's what you're implying. Not all fan bases behave the same way at the same time, otherwise why didn't Avengers beat Potter's midnight record since it beat the OW record in the long run? Why didn't Twilight ever beat the OW record after setting so many midnight records?

Audiences vary. Fan bases can be rabid and limited to fans more than general audiences(like Potter and Twilight), or they can be more casual. Or a fan-favorite movie can simply have a larger general audience that might not fit into the "fan" mold. That's what I've always opined about Star Wars and LOTR because their numbers are very strong evidence of that.

This situation always happens with big movies on the forums, and it always reminds me of my favorite quote from Sherlock Holmes (the book and the movie): "'It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts."

I'm not saying you Shawn, this has been going on since the 12.4 came out.

My point is this is one of the most loved franchises out there. I see no reason why people wouldn't flcok to go see this. If ROTK could do 8 mill before midnights were even a thing, then, imo, this should have done AT LEAST Avengers numbers.

It's human nature to get defensive to something you have an emotional connection to. This is one of those times, IMO.

LOTR is has one of the biggest fan bases out there. Surely most of those fans are excited to see this film. I think that makes the 13 million fine, absolutely fine.....but not great.

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Heretic Global Phenomenon

Heretic

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I don't think it opened on Wednesday everywhere... I mean, at least not here (in Romania). I think that only a few countries opened on Wednesday, which makes the numbers still good.Might be wrong, though.

In the UK it opened on Thursday and is on track for over $20m, so it's opening very well here at least.
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