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baumer

Wednesday #s Nikki (Hobbit 6.3)

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Standard drops from The Hobbit so far but I expect better increases/decreases through the weekend compared to I am Legend because of family business (especially since Guilt Trip and Monsters, Inc. 3D have both sputtered). A drop about 50% seems likely to me, possibly even a bit better.The real key days are Christmas through New Year's Day. How it holds then, especially on the inflated weekend of the 28th-30th, will determine how high it goes. I am Legend dropped 18.2% on its 3rd weekend and from the 25th through Jan. 1 made about 65 million including that inflated 3rd weekend (27.4m).

Edited by 4815162342
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Just for fun (and this really means very little...too many mitigating factors to predict a daily run going forward), let's look at possible numbers for the Hobbit:

Thurs: 6.3

Fri: 11.9

Sat: 14.0

Sun: 12.0

Mon: 5.4 (-55%)

Christmas Day: 11.3 (+115%)

Boxing Day: 9.4 (-17%)

Thurs: 8.0 (-15%)

Fri: 9.75

Sat: 11.22

Sun: 9.6

NYE: 6.0

NYD: 8.4 (+40%)

223.4 by NYD

Jan 2: 4.2

Thurs: 3.5

Fri: 6.3(+80%)

Sat: 8.5 (+30%)

Sun: 4.6 (-45%)

27.1 after the weekend of Jan 4-6

Total is 250

I am Legend did about 28 mill more from here on out. The Hobbit opened to 8.5% more than IAL. If it was to do 8% more than 28 mill, that gives it about 30 mill.

So the absolute lowest it will finish, based off these unscientific numbers, is 281 mill.

That's pretty silly. The only reason TH had a bigger weekend gross is because of midnights: 13M for Hobbit vs 3M for IAL. Its weekdays are slightly bigger right now because it gets a boost from IMAX.

That TH can eventually outgross IAL's final total is far from a lock.

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