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Spidey can't reach $7M(54.3M HKD)?

It was at 52.07M hkd by Sunday.

It will finish less than CA2(hk$56.5M)..

I see a 6.95m finish.

 

  Thursday adm. (so far)   May 22
Rank Movie LW TW % chg
1 X-Men: Days of Future Past -- 17,231 --
2 Godzilla 7,097 2,647 -62.7%
3 Neighbors 1,208 704 -41.7%
4 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 1,500 557 -62.9%
5 Aberdeen 881 301 -65.8%
6 The Little House -- 289 --
7 The Eternal Zero 392 233 -40.6%
8 Devil's Knot -- 164 --
9 Transcendence 649 118 -81.8%
10 The Broken Circle Breakdown -- 105 --

X-Men: Days of Future Past OD pre-sales: +67.3% X-Men: First Class's OD pre-sales

X-Men: DoFP vs. Captain America 2 OD: +24.9%

Excellent start for X-Men. Pre-sales took a huge jump on Wednesday. It is running a quarter better than Captain America 2 currently in admissions. Pricing wise though, it is not getting a blockbuster surcharge unlike Captain America 2 or The Amazing Spider-Man 2 but with strong pre-sales like these, it should be able to overcome the surcharge factor here.

3 years ago, X-Men: First Class had very strong walk-ins on opening day (more than 2/3 of admissions were walk-ins). For Days of Future Past, it won't match a 3 multiplier like First Class did but it will break 40,000 admissions today. Looking at pre-sales, X-Men seems to be doing great at almost every location. It has even stolen a Friday night IMAX showtime of Godzilla at iSQUARE. Even its 3D showtimes seem quite strong by comparison to The Amazing Spider-Man 2 or Captain America 2.

Langham Place                  
  X-Men: Days of Future Past 3D         X-Men: Days of Future Past 2D      
Day Time Seats sold Seats available % filled Day Time Seats sold Seats available % filled
May 22 11:30 AM 25 202 12.38% May 22 11:10 AM 42 191 21.99%
  2:00 PM 27 202 13.37%   1:20 PM 13 180 7.22%
  3:00 PM 27 187 14.44%   4:00 PM 59 191 30.89%
  4:30 PM 20 202 9.90%   12:40 AM 36 191 18.85%
  5:30 PM 40 176 22.73%          
  6:10 PM 23 180 12.78%          
  7:00 PM 80 202 39.60%          
  7:30 PM 130 202 64.36%          
  8:00 PM 103 187 55.08%          
  8:40 PM 97 180 53.89%          
  9:30 PM 92 202 45.54%          
  10:00 PM 103 202 50.99%          
  11:10 PM 76 180 42.22%          
  12:00 AM 56 202 27.72%          
  12:30 AM 21 202 10.40%          
Total   920 2908 31.64% Total   150 753 19.92%
If we look at the pre-sales at Langham Place, X-Men really blew up on Wednesday, doubling its 3D admissions and quadrupling its 2D admissions.

Rave reviews should keep this afloat at least until Transformers 4 comes out.

2nd week holdover Godzilla did OK considering the competition but the drops for this and all films will be larger with final admissions. Neighbors had a muted start on Thursday last week. Better than expected drop for The Amazing Spider-Man 2.

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  Thursday     May 22
Rank Movie LW TW % chg
1 X-Men: Days of Future Past -- 38,997 --
2 Godzilla 19,248 7,000 -63.6%
3 Neighbors 6,970 3,367 -51.7%
4 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 5,084 1,810 -64.4%
5 Aberdeen 3,223 1,129 -65.0%
6 The Little House -- 702 --
7 Delete My Love 919 666 -27.5%
8 The Eternal Zero 1,082 640 -40.9%
9 Transcendence 2,690 513 -80.9%
10 Devil's Knot -- 462 --

X-Men: Days of Future Past OD estimate: $485,000

 

  Opening Weekend Admissions            
  Thor X-Men: First Class Green Lantern Captain America Thor 2 Captain America 2 X-Men: Days of Future Past 3D
Thursday 20,466 32,105 15,032 25,949 30,100 30,942 38,997
Friday 22,338 33,129 16,560 24,473 32,000 37,871  
Saturday 37,071 64,048 27,952 37,240 55,989 72,031  
Sunday 39,375 63,745 25,488 33,602 55,100 63,688  
Total 119,250 193,027 85,032 121,264 173,189 204,532 38,997

As you can see, Days of Future Past came out well ahead. It's interesting to look back at First Class. It had a strong opening day, good Friday and an excellent weekend. Days of Future Past will follow a similar pattern although Friday should see a bigger boost and Saturday should be slightly weaker. It won't have that outstanding hold that First Class saw on Sunday but it should see a very good drop. Reviews are looking great as its rating has gone up from the morning. It is very close to Captain America 2's rating and when you consider that opening day audiences are more fickle than weekend audiences, this will play very well for the next few weeks.

As for the others, Godzilla dropped 64% on its 2nd Thursday. Its drop is not bad right now but it will see enormous drops on Saturday/Sunday due to increased demand for X-Men. 3m will not be happening. Neighbors did not suffer as much as Godzilla. It's the only Hollywood comedy out right now so its drops should be better than most films this week. Like Godzilla, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will feel the true effects of X-Men's power this weekend. Big drop for Aberdeen. It will soon be displaced by Delete My Love. The Little House did OK numbers. Exceptional hold for Delete My Love. Good for The Eternal Zero. Massive fall for Transcendence. Terrible start for Devil's Knot.

 

  Friday adm. (so far)     May 23
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 X-Men: Days of Future Past -- 21,208 -- +23.1%
2 Godzilla 8,849 3,748 -57.6% +41.6%
3 Neighbors 2,313 1,250 -46.0% +77.6%
4 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 2,197 839 -61.8% +50.6%
5 Aberdeen 1,398 451 -67.7% +49.8%
6 The Eternal Zero 432 391 -9.5% +67.8%
7 Transcendence 1,235 352 -71.5% +198.3%
8 The Little House -- 301 -- +4.2%
9 Devil's Knot -- 271 -- +65.2%
10 Delete My Love 253 124 -51.0% --

Great for X-Men. Not good for Godzilla. Average for Neighbors. Poor for The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and Aberdeen. Extraordinary hold for The Eternal Zero. Weak increase for The Little House. Dull for Devil's Knot. Good for Delete My Love.

_____________________________________________

Edge of Tomorrow tickets are on sale in IMAX. So far, it is behind the mega blockbusters but it will fill up to about 75-80% at show time.

Overheard 3 has starting pre-selling. Pre-sales are looking very good at the moment.

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Thursday Actuals

1. X-Men: Days of Future Past - $512,020
2. Godzilla - $74,159 (-71.3%)/$2,057,111
3. Neighbors - $27,729 (-57.0%)
4. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $19,345 (-66.7%)/$6,872,946
The Eternal Zero - $103,178
Aberdeen - $967,294
Delete My Love - $386,917

X-Men: Days of Future Past takes the biggest non-holiday opening day this year over Captain America 2. Excellent. Godzilla tumbled hard. Neighbors did slightly better than the rest but its hold is not that great. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 dove. Good for The Eternal Zero. Aberdeen will break through 1m this weekend. Delete My Love has achieved a pretty good gross.

X-Men Days of Future Past OD Comparison

Captain America 2 - +13.5%
Thor 2 - +32.3%
Captain America - +110.7%
X-Men: First Class - +151.3%

That is a stunning increase from First Class. Marvelous opening day for Days of Future Past.

  Friday       May 23
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 X-Men: Days of Future Past -- 44,717 -- +14.7%
2 Godzilla 22,686 9,335 -58.9% +33.4%
3 Neighbors 9,745 4,496 -53.9% +33.5%
4 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 6,804 2,405 -64.7% +32.9%
5 Aberdeen 4,255 1,372 -67.8% +21.5%
6 Transcendence 4,003 999 -75.0% +94.7%
7 The Little House -- 861 -- +22.6%
8 The Eternal Zero 1,151 735 -36.1% +14.8%
9 Devil's Knot -- 659 -- +42.6%
10 Delete My Love 1,492 608 -59.2% -8.7%
Fantastic for X-Men. It increased nearly 6,000 admissions on Friday, which is not far behind from Captain America 2's 7,000 holiday-fueled admissions increase on Friday. The holdovers all saw varying degrees of weak holds. Godzilla might have had a reprieve on Friday but Saturday and Sunday's holds will be bone-crushing.

  Saturday adm. (so far)     May 24
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 X-Men: Days of Future Past -- 40,921 -- +93.0%
2 Godzilla 16,893 6,062 -64.1% +61.7%
3 Neighbors 3,299 1,618 -51.0% +29.4%
4 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 4,300 1,184 -72.5% +41.1%
5 Aberdeen 2,160 738 -65.8% +63.6%
6 The Little House -- 542 -- +80.1%
7 Transcendence 1,781 535 -70.0% +52.0%
8 The Eternal Zero 725 513 -29.2% +31.2%
9 Devil's Knot -- 267 -- -1.5%
10 Delete My Love 539 194 -64.0% +56.5%
Total domination for X-Men. X-Men actually beat Captain America 2's holiday Saturday pre-sales which is crazy to even think about considering it is not showing in IMAX. The rest of the holdovers saw bigger decreases due to more screens heading over to X-Men.

X-Men: Days of Future Past OW Projection: $2,978,000

3m OW is within reach. It really depends on how high it flies today and tomorrow.

 

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Saturday update:X-Men: Days of Future Past is currently scorching the box office with nearly 79,000 admissions. It has a chance of breaking 80,000 admissions depending on how well its 10 PM and 11 PM showtimes do. It is almost 7,000 admissions up on Captain America 2's opening holiday Saturday with 2 more hours to go.

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Can it beat TASM2 with better legs?

Of course it will IMO. Spidey legs were horrid. CA2 beat it in total despite opening lower so I don't see how DOFP (with a projected bigger OW than Cap it seems) won't.
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Of course it will IMO. Spidey legs were horrid. CA2 beat it in total despite opening lower so I don't see how DOFP (with a projected bigger OW than Cap it seems) won't.

 

The closer we get to summer though the bigger the openings because school's out and the shorter the legs because of all the competition.  So what's the big competition coming up?  Maleficent, Edge Of Tomorrow,  Dragon 2?

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The closer we get to summer though the bigger the openings because school's out and the shorter the legs because of all the competition.  So what's the big competition coming up?  Maleficent, Edge Of Tomorrow,  Dragon 2?

None of those are big competition. The next three big films are Overheard 3 (June 5, local film), Transformers 4 (June 26) and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (July 17).

 

  Saturday       May 24
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 X-Men: Days of Future Past -- 78,613 -- +75.8%
2 Godzilla 42,575 15,289 -64.1% +63.8%
3 Neighbors 14,674 6,476 -55.9% +44.0%
4 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 12,204 3,114 -74.5% +29.5%
5 Aberdeen 6,566 1,784 -72.8% +30.0%
6 The Little House -- 1,263 -- +46.7%
7 The Eternal Zero 1,744 1,224 -29.8% +66.5%
8 Delete My Love 2,687 1,240 -53.9% +103.9%
9 Transcendence 6,327 1,162 -81.6% +16.3%
10 Devil's Knot -- 671 -- +1.8%

Monstrous number for X-Men: Days of Future Past. It lost admissions in the last 2 hours but that is still one heck of a Saturday. Biggest Saturday admissions this year. As expected, Godzilla, Neighbors, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and Aberdeen all saw higher admissions decreases on Saturday. Very good for The Little House. Outstanding hold for The Eternal Zero. Delete My Love has had an up/down weekend so far. Its Saturday increase is quite nice but its week-to-week hold is not great. Terrible for Transcendence. Weak for Devil's Knot.

  Sunday adm. (so far)     May 25
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 X-Men: Days of Future Past -- 40,640 -- -0.7%
2 Godzilla 18,386 5,989 -67.4% -1.2%
3 Neighbors 3,146 1,467 -53.4% -9.3%
4 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 4,681 1,434 -69.4% +21.1%
5 Aberdeen 2,556 772 -69.8% +4.6%
6 The Eternal Zero 827 662 -20.0% +29.0%
7 The Little House -- 594 -- +9.6%
8 Transcendence 1,904 437 -77.0% -18.3%
9 Delete My Love 750 391 -47.9% +101.5%
10 Coming Home -- 301 -- --
Great for X-Men. It could be aiming for 75-76k today.

  Weekend Projections     May 22
Rank Movie TW % chg Total
1 X-Men: Days of Future Past $3,000,000 -- $3,000,000
2 Godzilla $460,000 -69.4% $2,443,000
3 Neighbors $160,000 -59.5% $690,000
4 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 $108,000 -65.2% $6,960,000
5 Aberdeen $45,000 -73.4% $1,003,000
Incredible OW for X-Men: Days of Future Past. Judging from early reactions and trends, this should pass both Captain America 2 and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and make at least 8m. Dreadful for Godzilla but 3m can still happen if it does not majorly collapse next week. So-so for Neighbors this weekend but overall, it is a great total so far for both Seth Rogen and Zac Efron in Hong Kong. Another weekend drop over 60% for TASM 2. This is following Clash of the Titans' trajectory albeit with slightly better holds. This will barely cross 7m and will finish with just over a 2 multiplier. One of the more disappointing recent entries for Pang Ho Cheung but it does pass 1m this weekend.
Edited by Bluebomb
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I am hoping rest of asia matches what we have seen from china, hk and korea.

If HK can overperform like this, it should be no problem for Southeast Asia which typically loves superhero movies more than HK. They could open to over 4m, possibly 4.5m at this rate.

 

  Sunday       May 25
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 X-Men: Days of Future Past -- 72,186 -- -8.2%
2 Godzilla -- 13,567 -- -11.3%
3 Neighbors -- 5,618 -- -13.2%
4 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 -- 2,964 -- -4.8%
5 Aberdeen -- 1,951 -- +9.4%
6 The Eternal Zero -- 1,225 -- +0.1%
7 Delete My Love -- 1,225 -- -1.2%
8 The Little House -- 1,191 -- -5.7%
9 Transcendence -- 1,091 -- -6.1%
10 Devil's Knot -- 631 -- -6.0%

Decent hold on Sunday for X-Men. While I thought it would hold up better on Sunday, I didn't except X-Men to break out as much on Saturday. All in all, it was a great Saturday and Sunday for the comic book team. Steep drops for Godzilla and Neighbors. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 had an OK Sunday.

 

  Weekend adm.     May 22-25
Rank Movie LW TW % chg
1 X-Men: Days of Future Past -- 234,513 --
2 Godzilla -- 45,191 --
3 Neighbors -- 19,957 --
4 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 -- 10,293 --
5 Aberdeen -- 6,236 --
6 The Little House -- 4,017 --
7 The Eternal Zero -- 3,824 --
8 Transcendence -- 3,765 --
9 Delete My Love -- 3,739 --
10 Devil's Knot -- 2,423 --

  Opening Weekend Admissions            
  Thor X-Men: First Class Green Lantern Captain America Thor 2 Captain America 2 X-Men: Days of Future Past 3D
Thursday 20,466 32,105 15,032 25,949 30,100 30,942 38,997
Friday 22,338 33,129 16,560 24,473 32,000 37,871 44,717
Saturday 37,071 64,048 27,952 37,240 55,989 72,031 78,613
Sunday 39,375 63,745 25,488 33,602 55,100 63,688 72,186
Total 119,250 193,027 85,032 121,264 173,189 204,532 234,513

X-Men takes it by 30,000 over Captain America 2 without any help from a holiday.

 

  Weekend Estimates     May 22
Rank Movie TW % chg Total
1 X-Men: Days of Future Past $3,000,000 -- $3,000,000
2 Godzilla $460,000 -69.4% $2,443,000
3 Neighbors $160,000 -59.5% $690,000
4 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 $108,000 -65.2% $6,960,000
5 Aberdeen $50,000 -70.4% $1,008,000

X-Men: Days of Future Past takes the 2nd biggest OW behind The Amazing Spider-Man 2. Some theater owners definitely underestimated the power of this comic book series. I saw a lot of theaters trying to squeeze in and add more shows to X-Men on Friday and Saturday. Going back to 2011, X-Men: First Class held well in its first few weeks before Transformers 3 killed its run. I see something similar happening again although legs won't be as great as a lot of demand has been met this weekend.

Captain America 2 and X-Men: Days of Future Past's excellent OW could not have been achieved more differently though. While Captain America 2 took advantage of the empty marketplace and the holiday, X-Men: Days of Future Past had to rely on its own branding and goodwill from First Class and rave early reviews for this film to propel it to a powerful opening weekend. It also had to contend with coming off of a 3m weekend the previous week while Captain America 2 had 2 weekends of 2m before it to bolster its opening weekend.

Reviews are starting to pour in for X-Men: Days of Future Past and they are excellent. It has already matched Captain America 2's rating in just 4 days. Although a sci-fi Tom Cruise film and a classic fairy tale open next week, they won't be heavy hitters and X-Men will be riding the wave of popularity into the Monday holiday. I see it falling just 40% next weekend to about 1.8-1.9m. X-Men: Days of Future Past will be crossing 6m in just 15 days.

Godzilla was trampled by X-Men. While it had a pretty good opening weekend, it never was going to be a mainstay at the box office. It was sandwiched between 2 of the biggest films of the year and it paid the price on its 2nd weekend. 3m is in jeopardy unless if it pulls out a good hold next weekend.

Neighbors did not have a good 2nd weekend but it at least held better than the rest of the top 5. 1m is not happening since it has been falling quite rapidly and reviews are mixed.

The Amazing Spider-Man 2's 4th weekend did not bring any joy to Sony. One of the worst legs I've seen in a mega blockbuster in ages. While it will crawl past 7m, it is a huge disappointment. This was expected to contend for 10m and it looked like it had a chance of doing so after its opening day but every day after that has been a major disaster. The fact that it will not beat Captain America 2's gross is surprising and humilating after the first Amazing Spider-Man film had over a 3 multiplier over Captain America's gross.

Aberdeen is also another underperformer. This broke through 1m on Sunday but it picked a bad release date and the film was not received well enough to cut through and be a secondary performer at the box office.

Beyond the top 5, The Little House had a very good opening weekend. It was showcased in only 4 theaters but it held up nicely throughout the weekend and brought home with at least a $7,500 PTA.

Extremely good hold for The Eternal Zero. WOM is very strong for this Japanese flick.

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Week May 19-25

X-men: Dofp 21.94M hkd  (4-day debut)

Godzilla 7.26M  19.19M

TASM2  1.95M  54.03M

 

Superheroes 2014 showdown

TASM2   OW- 26.62M   To date - 54.03M

X-men     OW - 21.94M

CA2         OW- 21.78M  To Date - 56.54M

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