Transformers Age of Extinction: 1.05B (300 mil in China!!)

[Hernan Gonzalez]

This is the only way Trans4mers would miss to hit 1m before the end of its run: 

 

https://imgflip.com/gif/2j6go

 

Edited July 4, 2014 by Henry II of Arendelle

[Fullbuster]

You really jump the gun guys.TF4 is very frontloaded,and the competition from Apes 2 and GOTG will slow it down quite a bit,particularly in Europe and Latin America.1B is likely but not a lock.

[Robertron]

China and DOM are going to get this to $500m+ WW, if not a full $50m more. Playing it conservatively, the remaining markets made just over $600m more for TF3, so considering a drop is likely to happen (its dropping over $10m in a market like Australia), I would say $1B is still questionable.

 

Right now im 50/50. Holds in China and DOM will really determine where its going. Any less than $500m combined and $1B WW is gone I say.

[keysersoze123]

I dont think domestically its making more than 240M. I have no clue about china finish. Movies tend to fall apart very quickly when competition hits.

[Olive]

Box Office: TRANSFORMERS 4 Tops Quiet July 4th Weekend, Has Now Grossed $575M Global

[Donald]

Not 600 mill!!!1 bill is totally off!

[A Marvel Fanboy]

190m OS last week with UK and other smaller markets opening.

[KATCH-2D2]

190m OS last week with UK and other smaller markets opening.

Does this number include preview numbers? It hasn't officially released in UK yet.

[baumer]

If you add in China's 16 mill Sunday plus UK's gross (I'm guessing it did about 5 mill for Sat-Sun), then it is close to 600M.

[Hernan Gonzalez]

If you add in China's 16 mill Sunday plus UK's gross (I'm guessing it did about 5 mill for Sat-Sun), then it is close to 600M.

And it still has to open all over Europe and Latin America

[baumer]

Yes.  After the World Cup is over it attacks the other markets.

[eXtacy]

Boxofficemojo says its up to 575.6m, where is this 590m coming from.

[tong kosong]

Boxofficemojo says its up to 575.6m, where is this 590m coming from.

 

Apparently China's Sunday number is not counted.

[RthDeadWov]

Does this number include preview numbers? It hasn't officially released in UK yet.

No previews currently would Id say exceed 20m

 

WW 1bil is not out of the ?, seeing what  Eu/LatAm and the likes of Japan bring to the table.

[Fake]

China's Sunday is already counted though with actuals it may go up.

[KATCH-2D2]

No previews currently would Id say exceed 20m

 

WW 1bil is not out of the ?, seeing what  Eu/LatAm and the likes of Japan bring to the table.

Thanks. Good to know that. The number seems a bit too low but if it doesn't include the previews then it makes sense.

[Fake]

It doesn't include previews.

[Lordmandeep]

Well I cant see it missing 1 billion.

 

Current markets will allow it to finish around 700-750 million already. 

[Quigley]

If you remove the China gross, TF4 earned 89% of TF3 across the same territories and during the same point in their run.

Boxoffice.com says that it has earned 21% when including China, so w/o China it's:

 

(400.9 - 212.8) / (400.9 / 1.21 - 119.4) = 88.8%

 

And this gross is mostly from Asian territories which were expected to be huge. Imagine if we add less enthusiastic Latin America and bored Europe. That percentage could drop to 80%. HTTYD2 and Dawn Planet Apes could prove to be serious competition, especially since both are in 3-D. Another piece of evidence that suggests that Europe grosses will be weak is Australia, a mature market where TF4 has earned only 60% (17.7 / 29.3 = 0.6) of what TF3 made by its second weekend.

 

TF3 made about $600M outside China and North America. => 600 * 0.8 = $480M

China may reach $300M

Box Office Mojo estimates TF4 will reach $245-265M in NA.

 

480 + 300 + 250 = $1030M. So chances are it will reach $1B, although it is far from guaranteed at this point.

Edited July 7, 2014 by Quigley

[baumer]

Glad to see it has a shot at a billion.  I love seeing films I like do well, especially when so many here hate it.