Impact Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 Personally, I think surfing films are overdue for an Oscar 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Boyhood has it in the bag. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray G Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It's going to be Selma. The academy gets to make a statement and make history at the same time, and none of the other movies are strong enough to overrule that appeal. Boyhood is just too small and too unique for the Academy to embrace over it, and Birdman is slightly bigger but even more offbeat. All the other candidates are either too small or getting mixed reviews. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Boyhood is way too strong and nothing else has buzz anywhere close. It will cruise home with BP and BD awards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leyla Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 (edited) A day in the life of an AMPAS member. list of screener sent to Academy members &.... Transformers is 1 of them Edited December 4, 2014 by Tauriel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 (edited) list of screener sent to Academy members &.... Transformers is 1 of them Best VFX nominee..... You need screeners for techs too. They don't nominate themselves. Edited December 4, 2014 by riczhang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkelf Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Best VFX nominee..... You need screeners for techs too. They don't nominate themselves. Aw and just when I thought T.J. was sneaking into best supporting. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Boyhood has it in the bag. Way too early! Many films can gain a lot of traction, depending on the GA / industry reception. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Boyhood has it in the bag. Cus critical favourites and heavy frontrunners totally haven't been defeated before. *cough*Brokeback*cough*TSN*cough*another 10 different examples*cough* It's going to be Selma. The academy gets to make a statement and make history at the same time, and none of the other movies are strong enough to overrule that appeal. Boyhood is just too small and too unique for the Academy to embrace over it, and Birdman is slightly bigger but even more offbeat. All the other candidates are either too small or getting mixed reviews. I think Selma has a great shot, but the one thing that could kill its chances is if it misses Ensemble at SAG due to its screener issues and the fact that it's not got a big cast. Only one picture has ever won without a nomination for Best Ensemble and that was Braveheart in 1995 at the very beginning of SAG's history when things were very different and they were still figuring themselves out. If Selma misses ensemble then it is dead. And I think it could, because Boyhood, Birdman and Into the Woods are probably locked for Ensemble, some of them given their strong status and other given their cast's prestige. And then TIG because Harvey and Gone Girl. I could easily see Selma missing this category. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 For any other film I'd say that kills it's chances but since screeners aren't going out to sag members quick enough like you said I think that puts an asterisk next to that statistic. Don't think it hurts it much. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 (edited) For any other film I'd say that kills it's chances but since screeners aren't going out to sag members quick enough like you said I think that puts an asterisk next to that statistic. Don't think it hurts it much. Except screeners not going out fast enough happens ever year and the statistic still hold. I think it's also partly the awareness thing/prestige. The fact that it's an ensemble nominee makes the average member much more likely to not only watch the screener but also vote for the film because it's seen as 'prestigious' and 'awards calibre.' Not having it might give some members a second thought perhaps about whether to vote for it or Boyhood or Birdman or Gone Girl or TIG or Foxcatcher or ITW which would be nominated for ensemble instead of Selma. Edited December 4, 2014 by riczhang 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 (edited) Except screeners not going out fast enough happens ever year and the statistic still hold. I think it's also partly the awareness thing/prestige. The fact that it's an ensemble nominee makes the average member much more likely to not only watch the screener but also vote for the film because it's seen as 'prestigious' and 'awards calibre.' Not having it might give some members a second thought perhaps about whether to vote for it or Boyhood or Birdman or Gone Girl or TIG or Foxcatcher or ITW which would be nominated for ensemble instead of Selma. Depends on the movie. obviously Wolf of Wall Street or Django Unchained or whatever aren't gonna win Best Picture, SAG love or no. Selma is a different case. Edited December 4, 2014 by CoolioD1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I think Selma will win. I've just known ever since summer when I saw Boyhood that it wasn't going to win no matter how much of an early frontrunner it was. I've been patiently waiting for the movie with impeccable reception that's much more down Oscar Alley to emerge. And that movie has and it is Selma. 12YAS would be the only thing to stop it from winning, not Boyhood. But it's looking like reception will just be too good for that to matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 (edited) in order of priority selma boyhood birdman the imitation game a most violent year gone girl nightcrawler theory of everything whiplash mr turner Edited December 5, 2014 by Halba Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Yeah I'm seeing Selma winning BP and Linklater taking BD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChD Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 (edited) Wouldn't it be hilarious for Boyhood to be snubbed like the Before series? Edited December 5, 2014 by ChD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 That'd definitely make the Academy look even more hilariously clueless than it already does... so, yes? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I'm still not sold on Selma getting director nod tho. This is a black woman we are talking about; nods in directing really don't get as unlikely as this. Only 1 woman has ever won and was then snubbed right after a la a return to the old WASP male club and only 3 black directors have ever been nominated and none have come close to winning. (Yes I know McQueen was probs second last year but let's be honest here. Cuaron ran away with it.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray G Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I'm still not sold on Selma getting director nod tho. This is a black woman we are talking about; nods in directing really don't get as unlikely as this. Only 1 woman has ever won and was then snubbed right after a la a return to the old WASP male club and only 3 black directors have ever been nominated and none have come close to winning. (Yes I know McQueen was probs second last year but let's be honest here. Cuaron ran away with it.) Cuaron is the first latino winner of Best Director, so it's not like they passed up a history-making winner for a white dude. I also think with race issues so at the fore this year, the Academy will want the plaudits for making history again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CloneWars Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Cuaron is the first latino winner of Best Director, so it's not like they passed up a history-making winner for a white dude. I also think with race issues so at the fore this year, the Academy will want the plaudits for making history again. That's a valid point. I can see Ferguson playing a part in how the Academy votes except for the fact that they will likely forget Ferguson happened come January/Feb when they vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
