Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[XXR vs XXR]

Their prediction for A2 may be low but it’s relatively closer than their predictions for BPWF (too low) and Black Adam (too high.)

[SchumacherFTW]

16 minutes ago, Maggie said:

They are definitely underestimating Avatar2. I say it does at least 800M

650m seems like a pretty solid worst case if it opens to 200m

[Deuce66]

13 minutes ago, Wolverpool XXR said:

Their prediction for A2 may be low but it’s relatively closer than their predictions for BPWF (too low) and Black Adam (too high.)

 

We'll get a decent idea of how close they are before A2 is released, this is the summary of the 4 films discussed in the article. 

 

Domestic Box Office Predictions from Cinelytic

Avatar: Way of Water $650 million 
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $420 million
Black Adam: $328 million
Halloween Ends: $130 million
 

Edited September 30, 2022 by Deuce66

[SchumacherFTW]

1 minute ago, Deuce66 said:

 

We'll get a decent idea of how close they are before A2 is released, this is the summary of the 4 films discussed in the article. 

 

Domestic Box Office Predictions from Cinelytic

Avatar: Way of Water $650 million 
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $420 million
Black Adam: $328 million
Halloween Kills: $130 million
 

Halloween Ends could go sub 60m

[Deuce66]

If $650 million domestic is the number and Avatar can maintain its traditional 30/70 split with Int'l it should easily crack $2 billion worldwide before China. 

[Elessar]

1 hour ago, Deuce66 said:

If $650 million domestic is the number and Avatar can maintain its traditional 30/70 split with Int'l it should easily crack $2 billion worldwide before China. 

 

Exchange rates are really bad atm, though. 

[WittyUsername]

I know one thing for sure, Halloween Ends is not touching $130 million. 

[Agafin]

$650m would only be 45 million tickets or so, 40% lower than the original. Seems a bit low.

[IronJimbo]

6 minutes ago, Agafin said:

$650m would only be 45 million tickets or so, 40% lower than the original. Seems a bit low.

you have to assume that everyone in this thread has more knowledge around Avatar 2 than them

 

I guess they're just purely looking at numbers and turning brain off to none-measurable factors? not sure

[cheesypoofs]

11 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

I know one thing for sure, Halloween Ends is not touching $130 million. 

I’d be happy with 100m but I think the simultaneous peacock release killed that opportunity 

[Eric Burnett]

[XXR vs XXR]

 

Going to be a 60% drop for the Avatar re-release in its 2nd weekend. 

[Elessar]

 

[WittyUsername]

I mean, that would be a better hold than all the other re-releases this year. 

[Deuce66]

31 minutes ago, Wolverpool XXR said:

 

Going to be a 60% drop for the Avatar re-release in its 2nd weekend. 

 

That's following the pattern of other recent re-releases.

 

Spider Man NWH dropped 75% for weekend #2 and 76.4% for week #2 ($7.255 million vs $1.709) 

Jaws: dropped 75.5% for weekend #2 and 76.7% for week #2 ($3.886 million vs $907 K) 

 

Avatar made $13,896,763 in week #1 Sept 23-29 - drop that amount by 65% for week 2 so add $4.863 million and it finishes with around $18.76 million domestic. + the final international $$ 

 

I don't think anyone at Disney/20th/Lightstorm is going to complain. 

 

With the advent of streaming and the easy access to any movie that one wants to see digitally I think the days of massive re-release campaigns is pretty much done. Still $50-60 million + the $57 million from China last year will cover a nice chunk of the promo budget for Way of Water. 

 

[Elessar]

For the record, i wasn't being 100% serious.

[interiorgatordecorator]

wont be seeing the movie till tuesday, is the "avatar 2 wont be as good because the cgi leap wont be as impressive as back in 09" talking point no longer realistic?

Edited October 1, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[IronJimbo]

7 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

wont be seeing the movie till tuesday, is the "avatar 2 wont be as good because the cgi leap wont be as impressive as back in 09" talking point still valid?

what do you think? 😅

 

 

 

[Stewart]

9 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

wont be seeing the movie till tuesday, is the "avatar 2 wont be as good because the cgi leap wont be as impressive as back in 09" talking point still valid?

 

Based on what I saw at my showing, the response to the A2 scene was far and above the response for the original remastered. 

 

The trailer doesn't do it justice just how good the quality of A2 is. I think the jump is enough for the average watcher to see the improvement over other CGI films released this year, let alone A1. After all, this is properly done CGI, not cheap outsourcing.

 

Tbh, I'd say it's a disservice to even say this is CGI.

Edited October 1, 2022 by Stewart

[BadOlCatSylvester]

The Avatar 2 clip at the end of the remaster was damn near flawless. It is leaps and bounds above the already excellent effects in the first film. I think general audiences will still be very impressed.