Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[TheDude391]

Cameron keeps exceeding expectations, first film to hit a billion, first film to hit 2 billion, first film to topple a foreign government (CCP) 😅

[NCsoft]

10 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

oh damn i took your Profile picture 🤦‍♂️i'll change to quaritch in a bit

I see that you agree Lo'ak looks so good in this pic😁

Edited November 28, 2022 by NCsoft

[Deep Wang]

17 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

@Deep Wang @IronJimbo

 

FTR, what are your real predictions for DOM and OS (not including China)?

 

For the longest time, I have felt it would drop domestically and stay flat worldwide, though I can't find the post where I said that heh.

 

Obviously, I'm gonna have to bump domestic a tad because of ATP and no idea what ER's are going to do to the overseas numbers lol.  

[interiorgatordecorator]

54 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

 

 

Aladdin 2?

[CaptNathanBrittles]

31 minutes ago, TheDude391 said:

Cameron keeps exceeding expectations, first film to hit a billion, first film to hit 2 billion, first film to topple a foreign government (CCP) 😅

 

You're forgetting ROCKY IV.

[M37]

2 hours ago, Brainbug said:

No matter how this performs, im actually getting more excited for what the movies run will mean for the @Deep Wang vs @IronJimbo War

[IronJimbo]

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

*list of clubs here*

To Summarise the clubs we have.

 

A2 < $573m [DOM]

A2 < NWH [DOM & WW]

A2 < A1 [WW]

A2 > $220m [OW]

A2 < 4x Multiplier [DOM]

A2 > $1b [DOM]

A2 < TGM [DOM]

 

and my answers.

 

A2 < $573m [DOM] out

A2 < NWH [DOM & WW] out

A2 < A1 [WW] out

A2 > $220m [OW] out

A2 < 4x Multiplier [DOM] out

A2 > $1b [DOM] in

A2 < TGM [DOM] out

Edited November 28, 2022 by IronJimbo

[stuart360]

My predictions, for anyone interested, is $700-850mil US, and 1.5-1.8bil International.

 

I feel, and hope, i'm lowballing a touch, especially domestic.

 

The only thing i'm 100% certain of is that $2bil worldwide is LOCKED.

I feel 3bil worldwide would of been well in play with a full China gross, which we certainly are not going to get because of Covid.

 

If the film is genuinely a great film, and an unbelievable movie going experience, i feel 3bil could still happen, even without China.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

My predictions, for anyone interested, is $700-850mil US, and 1.5-1.8bil International.

 

I feel, and hope, i'm lowballing a touch, especially domestic.

 

The only thing i'm 100% certain of is that $2bil worldwide is LOCKED.

I feel 3bil worldwide would of been well in play with a full China gross, which we certainly are not going to get because of Covid.

 

If the film is genuinely a great film, and an unbelievable movie going experience, i feel 3bil could still happen, even without China.

welcome to my world! I'm certain it will be an unbelievable movie going experience, which is my advantage in estimations.

[SchumacherFTW]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

To Summarise the clubs we have.

 

A2 < $573m [DOM]

A2 < NWH [DOM & WW]

A2 < A1 [WW]

A2 > $220m [OW]

A2 < 4x Multiplier [DOM]

A2 > $1b [DOM]

A2 < TGM [DOM]

 

and my answers.

 

A2 < $573m [DOM] out

A2 < NWH [DOM & WW] out

A2 < A1 [WW] out

A2 > $220m [OW] out

A2 < 4x Multiplier [DOM] out

A2 > $1b [DOM] in

A2 < TGM [DOM] out

I'm shocked 😜

[IronJimbo]

Just now, SchumacherFTW said:

I'm shocked 😜

"A2 > $220m [OW] out"

 

did you not see this one?

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

welcome to my world! I'm certain it will be an unbelievable movie going experience, which is my advantage in estimations.

I mean without China its going to be TOUGH, but if the film genuinely blows people away, and we get tons of repeat viewings, this still could hit 3bil imo.

[stuart360]

5 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I'm shocked 😜

Kind of hope Ironjimbo is correct on all those clubs. Silencing the doubters yet again will be sooo sweet.

[stuart360]

Guys has there been any talk about Disney+ streaming yet?. I mean i hope they dont yank the film from cinemas after 6 weeks or something stupid. Obviously mine, and i'm sure others, predictions are based on the film having a full cinema run.

 

I'm sure thats what Cameron wants too so hopefully he uses his considerable power on this matter.

[The GOAT]

I'm going under Force Awakens.

If it makes more than Endgame and Avatar 1, I will make Jim James Jimbo Cama-ron, my personal Lord and Savior. 

[SchumacherFTW]

12 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

"A2 > $220m [OW] out"

 

did you not see this one?

Yeah, but you've always been an advocate more of legs than opening 

[Fanboy]

I think reviews will be the best indicator of what the movies run is going to look like. We should get some idea of what they're gonna be like when reactions roll out after the premiere. 

<40% on RT I think 145/420
40-50% 155/485
50-60% 160/540
60-70% 170/600
70-75% 175/645
75-80% 180/710
80-85% 185/790
85-88% 190/865 (Bolded because this is my prediction as of now). 
88-91% 200/1 Billion 
91-94% 210/1.1 Billion 
94%+ 220/1.25 Billion+

Obviously that is an extreme margin based soley off critical reception, but reception is what ultimately makes or breaks a James Cameron film and I think audiences opinions will generally line up with critics pending on what negative reviews criticise. Anything 80%+ is A/A+ Cinemascore territory I think. 

Edited November 28, 2022 by Fanboy

[Alexdube]

20 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

I'm going under Force Awakens.

If it makes more than Endgame and Avatar 1, I will make Jim James Jimbo Cama-ron, my personal Lord and Savior. 

 

put this as your profile pic when it happens:

 

 

 

[NCsoft]

20 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Guys has there been any talk about Disney+ streaming yet?. I mean i hope they dont yank the film from cinemas after 6 weeks or something stupid. Obviously mine, and i'm sure others, predictions are based on the film having a full cinema run.

 

There has been some comment from Landau that Disney is committed to a healthy theatrical window for this film, which to me, sounds like it's gonna be at least 90 days.