Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[hw64]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

               YES

 

I knew you'd say that haha, but the China bit is your real problem here Jimbo, irrespective of how you think it's going to perform elsewhere. As I say, not only the market conditions which already make it near-impossible to make $800m+, but also the idea of the government allowing Avatar 2 to surpass Changjin.

[SchumacherFTW]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

 

I knew you'd say that haha, but the China bit is your real problem here Jimbo, irrespective of how you think it's going to perform elsewhere. As I say, not only the market conditions which already make it near-impossible to make $800m+, but also the idea of the government allowing Avatar 2 to surpass Changjin.

The CCP have previous for interfering in an Avatar run as well, they banned the 2D version of the first movie early on as they were worried too many people were watching it. 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

 

I knew you'd say that haha, but the China bit is your real problem here Jimbo, irrespective of how you think it's going to perform elsewhere. As I say, not only the market conditions which already make it near-impossible to make $800m+, but also the idea of the government allowing Avatar 2 to surpass Changjin.

ok but understand im on an avatar high right now so I look at that $3.2b from WW - china is lowballing

[hw64]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

ok but understand im on an avatar high right now so I look at that $3.2b from WW - china is lowballing

 

Fair enough.

[Dragoncaine]

38 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

 

Every shot in this featurette is a BANGER

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Fair enough.

To be fair my prediction has been over 3 billies WW - China forever. I think people will be joining me on an avatar high in about 4 hours from now.

What I said earlier will be the reactions
"Better than the first"
"breathtaking (literally!)"
"i can't believe cameron has done it again"
"you have to see this movie"
"it had me in tears"

[adaros]

@hw64 China not looking good right now As somebody on reddit said: "more than half cinemas closed, and the ones open limited to 50% occupancy rate. 48-hour negative Covid tests are required to watch a movie in many cities."
That can kill any movie no matter who director is.

[NCsoft]

9 minutes ago, adaros said:

48-hour negative Covid tests are required to watch a movie in many cities."
That can kill any movie no matter who director is.

Things are volatile right now and can change very fast.

I don't actually expect the 48 hour negative test things to be very prevalent and necessarily long lasting, and the rules seem to be all over the place among different provinces, and even cities; but I think the overall trend of bucking the draconian zero-covid policy and heading toward true reopening is clear enough. So really, the longer Avatar stays in theater, the more chances it has. Ironically, this might prove to be another Cameron's style "lengthy run", but not actually due to the lack of hype.

 

I also think theatres will reopen at a higher rate in the next 10 days in anticipation for A2's release, we'll see if that happens; but things have a habit of going in direction beneficial for Cameron, as we've seen.

 

 

Edited December 6, 2022 by NCsoft

[Eric Burnett]

@IronJimbo @NCsoft was the same pic a deliberate choice?

[NCsoft]

12 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

"cameron has done it again"
 

Expecting to see this particular line many times today.

[Deuce66]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

they are on the red carpet

 

I can't believe we are finally HERE!! 

 

[Elessar]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

they are on the red carpet

 

WRONG!

 

Blue carpet.

[hw64]

9 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

To be fair my prediction has been over 3 billies WW - China forever. I think people will be joining me on an avatar high in about 4 hours from now.

What I said earlier will be the reactions
"Better than the first"
"breathtaking (literally!)"
"i can't believe cameron has done it again"
"you have to see this movie"
"it had me in tears"

 

Absolutely, but that's already priced in to my predictions. I'm on board with you for $3b+ worldwide definitely, maybe even without China if Avatar 2 totally maxes out (it's highly unlikely in my opinion as it would require a better-than-Avatar performance, but I can't rule it out entirely).

 

But $4b+ worldwide? Jim can do miracles at the box office, but he can't bend reality, and the market conditions in China, plus the very likely chance of government interference if Avatar 2 gets anywhere close to Changjin, makes that effectively impossible.

 

And if you're thinking of $4b worldwide with a sub-$800m gross in China, anything above $3.2b worldwide for Avatar 2 outside of China puts you very close to Titanic territory, which is very, very shaky ground to be on.

 

That being said, don't let me stop you from dreaming — this is just my rationalist viewpoint.

[Reddroast]

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

 

A VFX company treating their employees like crap is disappointing but not surprising if you follow similar industies

[Lothar]

10 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

 

I can't believe we are finally HERE!! 

 

Blue carpet. Can't believe we are finally there. 

[Lothar]

31 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

To be fair my prediction has been over 3 billies WW - China forever. I think people will be joining me on an avatar high in about 4 hours from now.

What I said earlier will be the reactions
"Better than the first"
"breathtaking (literally!)"
"i can't believe cameron has done it again"
"you have to see this movie"
"it had me in tears"

We are on same moon Pandora. 

 

 

[SchumacherFTW]

15 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

 

I can't believe we are finally HERE!! 

 

The Jollibee on the left is divine

[Lothar]

We will know more about the predictions of Chinese box office tomorrow. As tomorrow Wed tickets are going on sale. 

[IronJimbo]

24 minutes ago, Eric Dielman said:

@IronJimbo @NCsoft was the same pic a deliberate choice?

i'll change mine he did it first

[Elessar]

15 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Absolutely, but that's already priced in to my predictions. I'm on board with you for $3b+ worldwide definitely, maybe even without China if Avatar 2 totally maxes out (it's highly unlikely in my opinion as it would require a better-than-Avatar performance, but I can't rule it out entirely).

 

You sure that it would require a better-than-Avatar performance? I mean, Avatar was not that far off $3b in 2009 when movies on average made a lot less than they make now due to various factors (of course we hit a roadblock due to covid the last two years but we are at the tail end of the pandemic now).

Edited December 6, 2022 by Elessar