Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Sheldon Cr]

3 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

 

His prediction is $2.65B worldwide ($1.35B OS-C-R + $700M DOM + $600M China). I'd hardly call that "wanting this movie to fail"

 

Well he said all of Europe 130m. And max os is 1.3b

Didnt.see a minus.china.

Seemed he was giving his

China predict xx.

 

Let him.post his predict.

Is it 1.6b ww or 2.6bww?

2.6 b.is a success. 

 

 

Also Definitely don't see avatar just making 700m with a 190m-200m+ OW. 

This is a Cameron movie he averages 10x-30x multipliers. So I figure we'll see a 5x-7x(ontop of that giant OW- Avatar 2 will keep making great money even when Antman 3 comes out)

 

 

It will blow away TGM domestically.. The big question is by how much.

 

[Sheldon Cr]

14 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

 

 

He didn't. 

Ok I looked.my bad on that one.

Still hes lowballing the OS and Europe bo tho.

 

I see Avatar 2 getting to 1.9b-2.2b without China btw. I don't think Shanks realizes Cameron is bigger than every market Nwh was in. Just wait XxR.

Soon he will see. He's quick to yell fanboy, but predictors and trades are not lowballing A2 now abroad or domestic. Soon everyone will be declaring Avatar 2 surpasses Maverick and keeps on trucking.

Edited December 9, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Just updating

[JustLurking]

18 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Lol all of Europe adds 130m. I don't think anyone is taking that one seriously. Make.sure to keep record of that statement. And the 1.3b OS max for Avatar (I think he included china in that total. 😄😄)

 

He said 130M more than NWH. Which might still be a little conservative given how much better some countries (i.e. Germany and Italy) might perform here imo since we are talking about a best scenario, but come on, please read before getting outraged.

 

Asia is low as well, imho, SK+Japan+India alone can add more than that I think.

Edited December 9, 2022 by JustLurking

[Sheldon Cr]

6 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

He said 130M more than NWH. Which might still be a little conservative given how much better some countries (i.e. Germany and Italy) might perform here imo since we are talking about a best scenario, but come on, please read before getting outraged.

 

Asia is low as well, imho, SK+Japan+India alone can add more than that I think.

No he said maxed and of course that's low. I'm pretty sure in Germany, Italy and key markets its going to super perform.

Same in Australia and Asia and.India

You have folks.predicting 

Biggest movie of all time in India

 

Outlook is already saying it's going to break the Ow record in india and destroyed whatever record Dr Strange 2 had set. Nice

[kayumanggi]

It's just great to see a movie that isn't Marvel open to these big numbers.

 

By the way, what percentage do you think the 3D share will be, at least on the OW?

[JustLurking]

8 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

No he said maxed and of course that's low. I'm pretty sure in Germany, Italy and key markets its going to super perform.

Same in Australia and Asia and.India

You have folks.predicting 

Biggest movie of all time in India

 

Outlook is already saying it's going to break the Ow record in india and destroyed whatever record Dr Strange 2 had set. Nice

Yes, I agree as a "max scenario" it's pretty conservative, but he obviously didn't predict 130m total from europe or asia like you wrote lol.

[Sheldon Cr]

34 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

And then I saw something earlier quoting Jim that AVATAR V will be on Earth. 🤯

What the?? That is definitely going to a strange turn Kayom brother. Good to see you my longtime brother from the Bom Days

 

[Sheldon Cr]

13 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Yes, I agree as a "max scenario" it's pretty conservative, but he obviously didn't predict 130m total from europe or asia like you wrote lol.

No I thought he said 1.3b OS max including china.

That's why I'm thinking totally unrealistic predict.

But I looked he had - China after all.

His predict of 1.3b   Avatar 2 without China is still absurdly conservative. 

But hey he'll see for himself. 

 

I was really talking about what I thought was his total Os predict.

 

His domestic will be way off as well. Pretty sure jimbos and mine will be closer.

Aquaman , Antman all moved from Dec plans. Maverick moved for a reason.

Least I think this makes is 840-870M domestic all. 

 😄

Edited December 9, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Just updating

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Yes he actually did say all of Europe would make only 130m for Avatar.

 

Quote

NWH made 1.03 Billion OS-China (-Russia-Ukraine). Asia can add 130m over NWH's total, Europe adds 125m, Australia adds 25m, Middle East adds 35m, CIS gives 5m and LATAM will remain about same. 

This applies to all the numbers he listed man. His max scenario is 1.3b OS-C, you CAN'T physically make that with 125m europe. Besides no one would ever predict this film to make that little in europe, come on lol.

Edited December 9, 2022 by JustLurking

[nguyenkhoi282]

For the sake of beautifully rounded number:

200M OW - 1B DOM

2B OS (not complaining if 2.2B to be No.1 OS)

Total: $3-3.2B

[Borobudur]

Anything above $3bn I would be happy.

 

First $1bn movie - Titanic from JC

First $2bn movie - Avatar from JC

First $3bn movie - Avatar 2 from JC.

 

That would be a nice trilogy to look at! 

[Sheldon Cr]

29 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

This applies to all the numbers he listed man. His max scenario is 1.3b OS-C, you CAN'T physically make that with 125m europe. Besides no one would ever predict this film to make that little in europe, come on lol.

Well he's certainly lowballing with antman will make sure Avatar 2 struggle to 700-750 m domestic. Come on now.

I would think  no one would predict 1.3 B without China for a mega sequel to the biggest movie of all with the best film experience stated by many along with James own Titanic

13 yrs of anticipation with a  fanbase that doesnt waver  for his major projects.

 

And how  does Avatar opening to 170-210 m or more get cut down to a max of 700-750m because of Antman. That just isn't logical  with a Cameron type multiplier on lock off such an OW Just lurking. He says to counter him with logic and that's easily done with the facts I put on why this film should super perform and be in.a class all by itself.

 

Way.of the Water to 1B domestic and 3B ww and beyond!👍

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Just updating

[Sheldon Cr]

11 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Anything above $3bn I would be happy.

 

First $1bn movie - Titanic from JC

First $2bn movie - Avatar from JC

First $3bn movie - Avatar 2 from JC.

 

That would be a nice trilogy to look at! 

Heh heh this is what I feel will happen. Especially if Avatar2 gets 190-205 m Ow with my 5.7x multi or better. Let's not keep first to 4b ww.off the table either.

 

Boro what's your OW predict?

 

.

[Georgy P]

Not making any predictions here cause i feel like If I'll try to name some numbers it will be more like my willings, not actual predictions. I wish Jimibo to make all the money once again. What I'm curious about:

Will it make more than 200 on OW

Will it make on OW in China more than in US

[kayumanggi]

1 hour ago, Sheldon Cr said:

What the?? That is definitely going to a strange turn Kayom brother. Good to see you my longtime brother from the Bom Days

 

 

We have been waiting for this for a long time. 😂

[nydedan]

the first avatar raised the highest gross record by 50% and I will not be surprised if avatar2 make 50% more than the first one which is approximately 4B. I don't care about those "rational" analysis. I just have simple faith in the greatest blockbuster maker of all time.

[Shanks]

On 12/9/2022 at 10:52 AM, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

arent you being a bit too conservative 

 

Europe? I am not sure. 

 

I see Avatar 2 performing like this as compared to No Way Home: 

 

	Avatar 2	No Way Home
United Kingdom	$142,000,000	$127,429,348
France	$112,000,000	$70,218,748
Germany	$105,000,000	$46,371,945
Italy	$40,000,000	$28,275,577
Spain	$38,000,000	$28,193,771
Sweden	$21,000,000	$13,938,119
Netherlands	$20,000,000	$12,476,048
Belgium	$12,000,000	$12,444,892
Switzerland	$16,000,000	$10,640,277
Denmark	$21,000,000	$10,035,270
Poland	$22,000,000	$9,360,931
Norway	$11,000,000	$9,075,075
Ukraine	$0	$8,444,700
Russia	$0	$57,038,546
Finland	$8,000,000	$4,100,826
Greece	$6,000,000	$3,790,580
Rest	$29,000,000	$22,985,062
	$603,000,000	$474,819,715

 

 

Ofcourse, France can do 130m, Germany can go 130m - but those are not certainties. I am simply predicting based on little bit of Data I have and I see those numbers currently. The current bad ER and Rise in ticket prices are balancing each other out.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Shanks

[JustLurking]

11 minutes ago, Shanks said:

 

Europe? I am not sure. 

 

I see Avatar 2 performing like this as compared to No Way Home: 

 

	Avatar 2	No Way Home
United Kingdom	$142,000,000	$127,429,348
France	$112,000,000	$70,218,748
Germany	$105,000,000	$46,371,945
Italy	$40,000,000	$28,275,577
Spain	$38,000,000	$28,193,771
Sweden	$21,000,000	$13,938,119
Netherlands	$20,000,000	$12,476,048
Belgium	$12,000,000	$12,444,892
Switzerland	$16,000,000	$10,640,277
Denmark	$21,000,000	$10,035,270
Poland	$22,000,000	$9,360,931
Norway	$11,000,000	$9,075,075
Ukraine	$0	$8,444,700
Russia	$0	$57,038,546
Finland	$8,000,000	$4,100,826
Greece	$6,000,000	$3,790,580
Rest	$29,000,000	$22,985,062
	$603,000,000	$474,819,715

 

 

Ofcourse, France can do 130m, Germany can go 130m - but those are not certainties. I am simply predicting based on little bit of Data I have and I see those numbers currently. The current bad ER and Rise in ticket prices are balancing each other out.

 

Talking about Asia - 

I see South Korea reaching 12m tickets so, About $105m~ (Recently One Local Movie Crossed 12m tickets and $95m)

India - I don't see how it will cross Endgame in dollars, when ER is this bad. I see it reaching $40m. (~350 Crores)

Japan on other hand is wild Card, Currently I am looking at ~15B Yen, i.e $110m. Ofcourse, It's easy Goal for now.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

	Avatar 2	No Way Home
South Korea	$105,000,000	$61,981,362
India	$42,000,000	$36,877,120
Japan	$110,000,000	$36,320,523
Indonesia	$25,000,000	$25,747,047
Taiwan	$25,000,000	$17,940,935
Hong Kong	$25,000,000	$17,088,767
Malaysia	$20,000,000	$15,112,008
Thailand	$12,500,000	$10,548,425
Singapore	$11,000,000	$10,370,643
Philippines	$10,000,000	$5,275,045
Vietnam	$6,000,000	$4,375,144
	$391,500,000	$241,637,019

 

These are pretty reasonable predictions but not best case scenario like you said imho. Can for sure do better in hypothetical max. Can also do lower in some markets but if we are looking at a theoretical max, theres definitely room here.

[Shanks]

12 hours ago, Shanks said:

With Current situation & Trends, Avatar 2's best shot at  OS - China (- Russia - Ukraine) = $1.35 Billion.

 

I said with current situation & Trends, these trends are how they are selling tickets in those markets.  I never said anything about Theoretical Max, no? 

 

I did make one theoretical Max chart in Avatar OS thread but not here. @LPLC even linked it today in latest post. With Today's WR the theoretical max should be something like that:

 

Spoiler

	Country	Gross (in $)	Local Gross
Asia	India	$86.00	₹700 Crores
	South Korea	$130.00	15m Admission
	Japan	$184.00	¥25 Billion
	Taiwan	$34.50	NT$ 1.1 Billion
	Hong Kong	$25.00	HK$ 200m
	Malaysia	$17.50	RM80 Million
	Philipines	$29.00	₱1.700 Billion
	Indonesia	$30.00	RP450 Billion
	South East Asia	$63.50
	Middle East	$105.00
	Russia/CIS	$5.00
	Rest	$6.00
		$715.50
Oceania + Europe	Australia	$75.00	AU$110
	New Zealand	$10.00
	UK	$152.00	£125
	France	$146.43	€140
	Germany	$104.59	€100
	Italy	$62.75	€60
	Spain	$73.21	€70
	Netherlands	$20.92	€20
	Nordic	$47.07	€45
	Rest	$115	€110
		$805.18
Latin America	Mexico	$76.30	MXN $1,500
	Brazil	$63.30	R$330.00
	Rest	$82.00
		$221.60
Africa	Africa	$10.00
	OS- China	$1,752
	China	$860	RMB 6 Billion
	US	$1020
		$3,632

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Shanks

[JustLurking]

4 minutes ago, Shanks said:

 

I said with current situation & Trends, these trends are how they are selling tickets in those markets.  I never said anything about Theoretical Max, no? 

 

I did make one theoretical Max chart in Avatar OS thread but not here. @LPLC even linked it today in latest post. With Today's WR the theoretical max should be something like that:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

	Country	Gross (in $)	Local Gross
Asia	India	$86.00	₹700 Crores
	South Korea	$130.00	15m Admission
	Japan	$184.00	¥25 Billion
	Taiwan	$34.50	NT$ 1.1 Billion
	Hong Kong	$25.00	HK$ 200m
	Malaysia	$17.50	RM80 Million
	Philipines	$29.00	₱1.700 Billion
	Indonesia	$30.00	RP450 Billion
	South East Asia	$63.50
	Middle East	$105.00
	Russia/CIS	$5.00
	Rest	$6.00
		$715.50
Oceania + Europe	Australia	$75.00	AU$110
	New Zealand	$10.00
	UK	$152.00	£125
	France	$146.43	€140
	Germany	$104.59	€100
	Italy	$62.75	€60
	Spain	$73.21	€70
	Netherlands	$20.92	€20
	Nordic	$47.07	€45
	Rest	$73.21	€70
		$765.18
Latin America	Mexico	$76.30	MXN $1,500
	Brazil	$63.30	R$330.00
	Rest	$82.00
		$221.60
Africa	Africa	$10.00
	OS- China	$1,712.28
	China	$860	RMB 6 Billion
	US	$1020
		$3,592.28

 

I mean, when you yourself admit Germany and France can do 130, for example, you are by default admitting  A2's "best shot" at OS-C is higher. Obviously your numbers are more realistic (and probably where it will land) but if we are talking best shot like you wrote there's room.