Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Valonqar]

This thread grows so fast overnight haven't seen anything like this on BOT even in Endgame time.

[IronJimbo]

2 hours ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

For the sake of beautifully rounded number:

200M OW - 1B DOM

2B OS (not complaining if 2.2B to be No.1 OS)

Total: $3-3.2B

then add in China and you're golden

[IronJimbo]

ok new estimates I guess.
$205m OW - worldwide will be over $750m
$1.15B DOM
$2m OS - China

$600-1.3b China - the max is it's potential if there is no interference from external forces, unfornately I think there will be interference so I think it will fall in the lower end of that range

 

This will be the most succesful movie since Titanic, when considering market growths / inflations

Edited December 9, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

ok new estimates I guess.
$205m OW - worldwide will be over $750m
$1.15m DOM
$2m OS - China

$600-1.3b China - the max is it's potential if there is no interference from external forces, unfornately I think there will be interference so I think it will fall in the lower end of that range

 

This will be the most succesful movie since Titanic, when considering market growths / inflations

Welp, guys it's over. If even Jimbo has lost all faith because domestic can't even make more than 1.15 million dollars, then I guess Avatar is cancelled. 😭

[IronJimbo]

11 minutes ago, Stewart said:

Welp, guys it's over. If even Jimbo has lost all faith because domestic can't even make more than 1.15 million dollars, then I guess Avatar is cancelled. 😭

i think the os- china number is lowballing, but mainly because i don't understand the changes to the markets since 2019. Domestic could go higher than that, it's just my estimate.
 

Edited December 9, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Sheldon Cr]

2 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

We have been waiting for this for a long time. 😂

Lol Kayom..Yes indeed. Yes indeed. I was 30 plus back then my brother and now I'm pushing closer to 50. Wow on how long it took for the return to Pandora my friend. Lol

[hw64]

1 hour ago, Shanks said:

 

I said with current situation & Trends, these trends are how they are selling tickets in those markets.  I never said anything about Theoretical Max, no? 

 

I did make one theoretical Max chart in Avatar OS thread but not here. @LPLC even linked it today in latest post. With Today's WR the theoretical max should be something like that:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

	Country	Gross (in $)	Local Gross
Asia	India	$86.00	₹700 Crores
	South Korea	$130.00	15m Admission
	Japan	$184.00	¥25 Billion
	Taiwan	$34.50	NT$ 1.1 Billion
	Hong Kong	$25.00	HK$ 200m
	Malaysia	$17.50	RM80 Million
	Philipines	$29.00	₱1.700 Billion
	Indonesia	$30.00	RP450 Billion
	South East Asia	$63.50
	Middle East	$105.00
	Russia/CIS	$5.00
	Rest	$6.00
		$715.50
Oceania + Europe	Australia	$75.00	AU$110
	New Zealand	$10.00
	UK	$152.00	£125
	France	$146.43	€140
	Germany	$104.59	€100
	Italy	$62.75	€60
	Spain	$73.21	€70
	Netherlands	$20.92	€20
	Nordic	$47.07	€45
	Rest	$73.21	€70
		$765.18
Latin America	Mexico	$76.30	MXN $1,500
	Brazil	$63.30	R$330.00
	Rest	$82.00
		$221.60
Africa	Africa	$10.00
	OS- China	$1,712.28
	China	$860	RMB 6 Billion
	US	$1020
		$3,592.28

 

 

This is generally a very good analysis and your maximum figures agree remarkably well with my own.

 

You're a touch higher than my own "maximums" (which have been calculated conservatively, so probably not actual maximums) in dollar gross in a lot of the major European and Asian markets, especially in Japan where you've got a maximum of ¥25b or $184m which would be way above the original Avatar in admissions (my "maximum" in Japan is only just over half of that). And yet, your maximum OS-C figure of $1.71b is actually lower than my own, so I've been trying to figure out where the big discrepancy is, especially in view of your huge Japan figure.

 

And then I saw your Oceania and Europe "rest" figure of €70 or $73.2m. That is grossly low, not only in general but particularly relative to all of your other figures. I'm not even modelling all European countries, and the ones that I am modelling which fall into your European "rest" — Romania, Poland, Switzerland, Turkey, Belgium, Austria, Greece, the Czech Republic, Portugal, Hungary — add up to about $135m, and that's without adding in any further minor markets in Oceania and Europe of which there are quite a few. My actual maximum in European "rest" would very likely be $150m+.

 

I haven't done a deep dive into the rest of the figures, but that seems to me to be the most glaring issue here.

Edited December 9, 2022 by hw64

[Sheldon Cr]

16 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

ok new estimates I guess.
$205m OW - worldwide will be over $750m
$1.15m DOM
$2m OS - China

$600-1.3b China - the max is it's potential if there is no interference from external forces, unfornately I think there will be interference so I think it will fall in the lower end of that range

 

This will be the most succesful movie since Titanic, when considering market growths / inflations

I'm with you on this one Jimbo.  What would be the ultimate satisfaction is  even in pandemic Era Avatar doubles NWH'S ww gross and beats End game and Avatar 1 by over 1billion ww and blows Way FA domestic with 1.1 to 1.2b 🏋‍♀️😄

[Sheldon Cr]

4 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

It's just great to see a movie that isn't Marvel open to these big numbers.

 

By the way, what percentage do you think the 3D share will be, at least on the OW?

Man should be crazy. I'm hoping I can get 4dx tickets for 2nd Weekend.

Maybe 85-90% I think will be choosing one of the amazing 3d formats. Here we have laser Imax3d, 3d, 4dx.

8k digital 3 D i believe and others..What do you think the 3d share will be Kayom. Also what's your OW1 predict my brother?

I'm going with a conservative 190m OW.

 

High-end 210m OW(really would love the ultra high end performance predicts from the fans. to happen of 230-300+m though)

 

Tracking by HR  nov 23rd  had A2 at 155-170m conservatively.

An India pre-sales  record was shattered by Avatar 2 (previously held by  Dr Strange 2) So we can look for huge numbers from our brothers and sister Pandorians  that will definitely  makeup for Russia and Ukraine bo due to the unfortunate situations going on.

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Just updating

[Stewart]

22 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

i think the os- china number is lowballing, but mainly because i don't understand the changes to the markets since 2019. Domestic could go higher than that, it's just my estimate.
 

You're missing my point, perhaps lack of sleep as hyped for Avatar. You said millions not billions

[IronJimbo]

40 minutes ago, Stewart said:

You're missing my point, perhaps lack of sleep as hyped for Avatar. You said millions not billions

ahhaha opps, my brain is in pandora

[lorddemaxus]

I thought dual laser IMAX will be showing it in HFR (but downgraded to 2k) but it seems not? Not sure whether to watch it in the big IMAX (dual laser) or go Dolby where I get HFR but smaller screen. High chance I'll be rewatching it with my family though on a single laser IMAX screen (which will 100% do HFR). Definitely taking the dual laser IMAX tho if they're showing Oppenheimer prologue/trailer.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

I thought dual laser IMAX will be showing it in HFR (but downgraded to 2k) but it seems not? Not sure whether to watch it in the big IMAX (dual laser) or go Dolby where I get HFR but smaller screen. High chance I'll be rewatching it with my family though on a single laser IMAX screen (which will 100% do HFR). Definitely taking the dual laser IMAX tho if they're showing Oppenheimer prologue/trailer.

 

The Dolby screens are the best format for this as they're dual laser and HFR, just try and get a seat near the front if it's small. If I put nose up against my monitor it becomes the biggest screen in UK

[IronJimbo]

I made an error not doing multiple bookings straight away, it's almost impossible to get a seat as good as my opening day again. PLF screens are rammed

[kayumanggi]

1 hour ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Lol Kayom..Yes indeed. Yes indeed. I was 30 plus back then my brother and now I'm pushing closer to 50. Wow on how long it took for the return to Pandora my friend. Lol

 

I was just 23 when it came out. 😂 I'm happy I'm still alive to witness the sequel and hopefully the rest of the movies in the series.

[kayumanggi]

53 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Man should be crazy. I'm hoping I can get 4dx tickets for 2nd Weekend.

Maybe 85-90% I think will be choosing one of the amazing 3d formats. Here we have laser Imax3d, 3d, 4dx.

8k digital 3 D i believe and others..What do you think the 3d share will be Kayom. Also what's your OW1 predict my brother?

I'm going with a conservative 190m OW.

 

High-end 210m OW(really would love the ultra high end performance predicts from the fans. to happen of 230-300+m though)

 

Tracking by HR  nov 23rd  had A2 at 155-170m conservatively.

An India pre-sales  record was shattered by Avatar 2 (previously held by  Dr Strange 2) So we can look for huge numbers from our brothers and sister Pandorians  that will definitely  makeup for Russia and Ukraine bo due to the unfortunate situations going on.

 

 

I'll try see this at least three times in different formats. Maybe:

 

IMAX with laser tech (I'm emphasizing this because we only have one like this here. 😅)

Director's Club

regular cinema, 3D

regular cinema, 2D

 

I'm really clueless about what the 3D share will be. As for my predictions, maybe at least $170 M for the OW. I wouldn't be shocked if it went higher, though.

[Elessar]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I made an error not doing multiple bookings straight away, it's almost impossible to get a seat as good as my opening day again. PLF screens are rammed

 

Stupid as i am, I haven't bought a ticket yet, i'm affraid i'll have to wait at least a week to get decent seats.

[IronJimbo]

I'm kind of annoyed I understand what Judder is, once you know it you cant unsee it. I completely get why Jim spent so long on getting HFR ready for 3D screenings.

 

The worst part I have no idea which screens will actually be showing it in HFR and how to find them.

Edited December 9, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Elessar]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

I'm kind of annoyed I understand what Judder is, once you know it you cant unsee it.

 

I mean, there's no way to not see it. Judder is so obvious.

[Georgy P]

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