Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Dragoncaine]

My personal hype has become deafening. Head empty until 12/16

[NCsoft]

9 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

If China + DOM does $1.65B+ then the worldwide total is definitely going over $3B.

Yeah, If we are getting Domestic 850M, China 800M, sounds to me like a $3.3B worldwide situation to me.

I cannot imagine a scenario where China massively respond to it even under this current circumstances, and domestic also does reasonably well, but overseas-China somehow are underwhelmed by it, the original is so big for OS-C markets afterall.

 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, NCsoft said:

Yeah, If we are getting Domestic 850M, China 800M, sounds to me like a $3.3B worldwide situation to me.

I cannot imagine a scenario where China massively respond to it even under this current circumstances, and domestic also does reasonably well, but overseas-China somehow are underwhelmed by it, the original is so big for OS-C markets afterall.

 

china is still a big ???? to me but its looking promising

[Maggie]

So what are the arguments for A2 disappointing with let's say UNDER 700M?

[stuart360]

8 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Certainly would be awesome my brother for you me and Jimbo to witness a run so big we compare it to Titanic indeed and just the jubilees Cameron and Avatar Fans would be throwing online and off it in vindication. I feel something special may happen with this sequel and definitely folks want a one of a kind of escape and this could be the film folks just cant stop watching  indeed Stuart.

 

 

And it will soldify our statements in the past.... That Cameron , Titanic and Avatar fanbase is our fortress that pending good 

work and if they are alive and out there.. We are coming and never bet against us or a great Cameron movies ability to shatter BO rules yet again. 

 

I just so want the film to hit 3bil. Obviously for it being the first film to do it, but mainly because it will mean Cameron has directed the 'biggest movie of all time' 3 times ina  row. And thats something that will probably never be replicated again, even if the movie business goes on for another 1000 years!.

[WittyUsername]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

So what are the arguments for A2 disappointing with let's say UNDER 700M?

The original film did it over a decade ago, and TGM managed to do it this past Summer, so it would be a bit underwhelming if “the motion picture event of a generation” failed to pass that. 

[NCsoft]

8 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

china is still a big ???? to me but its looking promising

 

I don't know if China can contribute that much, that was more referring to Brainbug's prediction; but I think the optimal range for China can be quite high. Presale numbers are solid and much of it come from theaters that are not even currently open but will be opening in a few days; it's got a relatively unimpeded run throughout Christmas, New Year, and until Chinese New Year, even then it may get extended and kind of takes advantage over a relatively lackluster CNY slate, who knows, maybe Wandering Earth 2 and A2 would even make this CNY all about Sci-fi (I'm being optimistic here).

But personally, if China somehow gets to $800M, I think domestic goes easily over $850M, Cameron films don't behave like Star Wars or MCU, they are not going to be hot in one market and then cold in another.

 

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by NCsoft

[Sheldon Cr]

7 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I just so want the film to hit 3bil. Obviously for it being the first film to do it, but mainly because it will mean Cameron has directed the 'biggest movie of all time' 3 times ina  row. And thats something that will probably never be replicated again, even if the movie business goes on for another 1000 years!.

Without a doubt my brother. Without a doubt..  Wow the Hat Trick  is coming Stuart... Especially with A2 hitting 175-200M OW with 7x-8x  multiplier  start or better

Edited December 9, 2022 by Sheldon Cr

[Sheldon Cr]

What is the biggest OW anyone feels this could get?

 

190, 200-205, 220-240M, 260-270M ? 

[Sheldon Cr]

6 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

 

I don't know if China can be that big, that was more referring to Brainbug's prediction; but I think the optimal range for China can be quite high. Presale numbers are solid and much of it come from theaters that are not even currently open but will be opening in a few days; it's got a relatively unimpeded run throughout Christmas, New Year, and until Chinese New Year, even then it may get extended and kind of takes advantage over a relatively lackluster CNY slate, who knows, maybe Wandering Earth 2 and A2 would even make this CNY all about Sci-fi (I'm being optimistic here).

But personally, if China somehow gets to $800M, I think domestic goes easily over $850M, Cameron films don't behave like Star Wars or MCU, they are not going to be hot in one market and cold in another.

 

 

Definitely Predicting 640M for China(Hoping 750-830M or way better tho)

[stuart360]

8 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

 

I don't know if China can be that big, that was more referring to Brainbug's prediction; but I think the optimal range for China can be quite high. Presale numbers are solid and much of it come from theaters that are not even currently open but will be opening in a few days; it's got a relatively unimpeded run throughout Christmas, New Year, and until Chinese New Year, even then it may get extended and kind of takes advantage over a relatively lackluster CNY slate, who knows, maybe Wandering Earth 2 and A2 would even make this CNY all about Sci-fi (I'm being optimistic here).

But personally, if China somehow gets to $800M, I think domestic goes easily over $850M, Cameron films don't behave like Star Wars or MCU, they are not going to be hot in one market and then cold in another.

 

 

China could be a nice surprise because i read elsewhere that the Chinese war film, old epic film (forgot the name) made 900mil this year (crazy), meaning that the govenrment may let A2 get to around 800-850mil before they start tampering with it. Of couse whether A2 could get to 800+mil under the current covid circumstancees is anyone guess.

I do feel though that there wont be much tampering with A2 as long as its stays under 900mil.

Edited December 9, 2022 by stuart360

[Elessar]

I've been of the opinion for the longest time that as long as it bests $500m DOM i would be quite fine with it but considering that NWH recently did over $800m and TGM over $700m despite COVID anything under $700m for the sequel to the biggest movie ever would suddenly look quite underwhelming...

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

So what are the arguments for A2 disappointing with let's say UNDER 700M?

I'm assuming you're saying domestic, thats not possible worldwide.

 

Avatar made $750m on it's first run, and inflation has been massive since then.

Might need @hw64 to run the numbers but it should be comfortably over a $1b adjusted for inflation

TGM & NWH have shown the domestic market is very healthy, this december is the best time since covid to make money

Completely free calender to rinse IMAX

It's already tracking to open to $150-210m, i think it will be in the upper range

The movie itself will be a visual treat that far exceeds anything anyones ever seen before, the novelty of seeing something new will be there just like with the first. Not only that but it's a story with universal themes and big emotion that appeals to a wider audience that TGM&NWH. The action will be stella too, it will capture the same dreamlike feeling as the first film.
Basically what I'm saying to get $650m the OW will have to hit lower end of the expectations AND the film miraclously won't connect with audiences and the legs will be sub 4.5, which i think is crazy unlikely.

 

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

What is the biggest OW anyone feels this could get?

 

190, 200-205, 220-240M, 260-270M ? 

Domestically I can’t see this opening over $185M. 

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, Elessar said:

I've been of the opinion for the longest time that as long as it bests $500m DOM i would be quite fine with it but considering that NWH recently did over $800m and TGM over $700m despite COVID anything under $700m for the sequel to the biggest movie ever would suddenly look quite underwhelming...

and.. with china looking like its back in action that $700m should equate to just over $2.5b or more. Welcome to Jimboland

Edited December 9, 2022 by IronJimbo

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

Domestically I can’t see this opening over $185M. 

i think it can definitely make more than that, i'm expecting very close to $185m tho, but it has the potential to go higher

[stuart360]

5 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

What is the biggest OW anyone feels this could get?

 

190, 200-205, 220-240M, 260-270M ? 

I have it at 180mil OW, although i wouldnt be totally surprised if it hit 200mil.

 

I just feel because of the time between films (13 years), and the fact that we are talking 4 hour slots here with trailers and commercials per showing.

I just feel the film will act more like a orig film rather thana 'we must see this OW' sequel type of film.

I mean i have been saying it from the start, for me this film will be about legs, rather than massive record breaking weekends.

[Grebacio]

1 hour ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

Out of curiosity, what is everyone’s disappointment threshold? If ATWOW didn’t make it over (insert number), I’d be disappointed. For me it’s $600M domestic and $1.25B OS.

Under 700 Dom and 2bn WW

[Maggie]

I didn't keep up with the latest news regarding tracking, but i hope you guys are not blinded by hype and the movie can do 180M+ OW

[Sheldon Cr]

8 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I'm assuming you're saying domestic, thats not possible worldwide.

 

Avatar made $750m on it's first run, and inflation has been massive since then.

Might need @hw64 to run the numbers but it should be comfortably over a $1b adjusted for inflation

TGM & NWH have shown the domestic market is very healthy, this december is the best time since covid to make money

Completely free calender to rinse IMAX

It's already tracking to open to $150-210m, i think it will be in the upper range

The movie itself will be a visual treat that far exceeds anything anyones ever seen before, the novelty of seeing something new will be there just like with the first. Not only that but it's a story with universal themes and big emotion that appeals to a wider audience that TGM&NWH. The action will be stella too, it will capture the same dreamlike feeling as the first film.
Basically what I'm saying to get $650m the OW will have to hit lower end of the expectations AND the film miraclously won't connect with audiences and the legs will be sub 4.5, which i think is crazy unlikely.

 

That's a fact Jack#!

Lol. Very very unlikely brother jumbo. Whats crazy is imagine 190-210 m ow and 7x -8x multiplier. Avatar had a 10x multi. Titanic a 30x multi