Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

Domestically I can’t see this opening over $185M. 

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I didn't keep up with the latest news regarding tracking, but i hope you guys are not blinded by hype and the movie can do 180M+ OW

 

Box Office Pro had it as $150m to $180m last week, before the reactions came in. Based on what Shawn said in presales thread, "It's in the publication queue now. I think Avatar fans will enjoy it. ", it seems like their prediction has risen. They're very good at predicting opening weekends, the closer to it the more accurate they are tho.

Edited December 9, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Sheldon Cr]

11 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

Domestically I can’t see this opening over $185M. 

hah hah, my predict is just 5m over your max predict. I'm for 190m Ow for Avatar 2

Highend though  I feel  Avatar 2 Way of the Water  gets up to 215-220m for the 3 day Ow.  And man I'm rooting for the high-end of the spectrum for Pandoras magnificent Return. 

 

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Just updating

[Sheldon Cr]

8 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Box Office Pro had it as $150m to $180m last week, before the reactions came in. Based on what Shawn said in presales thread, "It's in the publication queue now. I think Avatar fans will enjoy it. ", it seems like it's risen. They're very good at predicting opening weekends, the closer to it the more accurate they are tho.

Yep and though different climate. I.must reiterate. Endgame is longer than 3 hrs and had OW of 357M. NWH in pandemic era 260m OW.

 

Lots of wiggle room to see what the incmpariable movie Cameron fortress fandom of T2,  The Titan and  Avatar 1 bring to the domestic opening  table my family. Things may be explosive beyond words on Dec 16th  🥊😎 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Just updating

[XXR vs XXR]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Does the data suggest more? 

[hw64]

I'll also join the crowd in saying that I think it's going to be around an $180m opening weekend with the potential to go higher.

[Sheldon Cr]

2 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

Does the data suggest more? 

Much more. 205-240m Ow predicts are out there as well. And beautiful highend ones of 250-330m might just be on Avatars plate.. With folks reportingly hearing these reviews and buying 4-7 tickets for themselves to go on the Avatar event multiple times from Friday to Sunday

Edited December 9, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Editing post

[Sheldon Cr]

4 minutes ago, hw64 said:

I'll also join the crowd in saying that I think it's going to be around an $180m opening weekend with the potential to go higher.

Now.your talking HW. Mine is for 190m. Heh anything at this num and  above Brother Xxr owes me a month. 💪

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Much more. 205-240m Ow predicts are out there as well. And beautiful highend ones of 250-330m might just be on Avatars plate.. With folks reportingly hearing these reviews and buying 4-7 tickets for themselves to go on the Avatar event multiple times from Friday to Sunday

That’s not data 😂

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

Does the data suggest more? 

You never know until next week but I won't be assertive one way or other. 

[NCsoft]

29 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

China could be a nice surprise because i read elsewhere that the Chinese war film, old epic film (forgot the name) made 900mil this year (crazy), meaning that the govenrment may let A2 get to around 800-850mil before they start tampering with it. Of couse whether A2 could get to 800+mil under the current covid circumstancees is anyone guess.

I do feel though that there wont be much tampering with A2 as long as its stays under 900mil.

 

What is a little bit unfortunate is that the Chinese currency (RMB) took a huge tumble this year, and the film that you were referring to (Battle of Lake Changjin), which made $900M, would be equivalent to ~$830M, so that may be the maximum allowable box office for Avatar 2.

Though I don't know if I necessarily buy the "CCP will intervene" narrative, Jim has a good relation with China and those theatres need the help; In any case, getting up there in numbers in this market conditions is probably too optimistic to begin with, but we probably can expect a good haul still.

 

[Sheldon Cr]

1 minute ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

That’s not data 😂

No but Kal's nose here is twitching and palms.a.heating. Usually this means the kuda grah of a cameron or  movie I'm  rooting for is going to be winning.

 

Hah hah your 160m ow data against my nose and palms a heating my brother. Lets see what happens. 

 

 

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

48 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I just so want the film to hit 3bil. Obviously for it being the first film to do it, but mainly because it will mean Cameron has directed the 'biggest movie of all time' 3 times ina  row. And thats something that will probably never be replicated again, even if the movie business goes on for another 1000 years!.

 

doing it 4 times might not be that hard (assuming avatar 2 does it)

exchange rates could improve radically by the time avatar 3 comes around, china might be at 100%, theaters would be better prepared to handle 3D and covid could end end

Edited December 9, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[SnokesLegs]

I think some of you are getting a BIT carried away by the hype here. This ain’t hitting anywhere near the $240M-$330M range, the pre-sale data so far doesn’t even hint at that possibility.
 

$150-$185M is a good target, and with Christmas legs it’ll still do extremely well.

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

I think some of you are getting a BIT carried away by the hype here. This ain’t hitting anywhere near the $240M-$330M range, the pre-sale data so far doesn’t even hint at that possibility.
 

$150-$185M is a good target, and with Christmas legs it’ll still do extremely well.

 

185 is the upper limit? I think 180 looks about average now. Could see it over 185 quite easily. Not sure it can get to 200 but wont be that far off it IMO.

[The GOAT]

15 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

 

What is a little bit unfortunate is that the Chinese currency (RMB) took a huge tumble this year, and the film that you were referring to (Battle of Lake Changjin), which made $900M, would be equivalent to ~$830M, so that may be the maximum allowable box office for Avatar 2.

Though I don't know if I necessarily buy the "CCP will intervene" narrative, Jim has a good relation with China and those theatres need the help; In any case, getting up there in numbers in this market conditions is probably too optimistic to begin with, but we probably can expect a good haul still.

 

it'll be cut off by Chinese New Year. I guarantee it. 

[SnokesLegs]

4 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

185 is the upper limit? I think 180 looks about average now. Could see it over 185 quite easily. Not sure it can get to 200 but wont be that far off it IMO.

Not necessarily the upper limit, but nothing is indicating it’s going to go beyond that just yet. Still a week to go though obviously so let’s see how it plays out. 

[danziger]

I'll be happy with whatever it takes to get us Avatar 4 & 5, which is maybe $1.2-1.3 billion? I don't know, am way out of the loop on this industry. With the first Avatar my big hope was that its success would lead to other filmmakers picking up Cameron's torch and doing ambitious scifi projects of their own, using mocap to create more amazing alien worlds & cultures, but sadly that never happened even though Avatar was #1 all-time. So I've lost hope that it will ever happen. Cameron is just too unique, but maybe like he says he can eventually train another director to take over the Avatar universe for him.

[cubsfan]

I think after Thursday WOM will spread and it’ll open higher. Still think people will wait for premium theaters if sold out. That’s my only caveat why it won’t go higher than 180ish. I’m good with 150M. Anything higher is gravy.

[cubsfan]

7 minutes ago, danziger said:

I'll be happy with whatever it takes to get us Avatar 4 & 5, which is maybe $1.2-1.3 billion? I don't know, am way out of the loop on this industry. With the first Avatar my big hope was that its success would lead to other filmmakers picking up Cameron's torch and doing ambitious scifi projects of their own, using mocap to create more amazing alien worlds & cultures, but sadly that never happened even though Avatar was #1 all-time. So I've lost hope that it will ever happen. Cameron is just too unique, but maybe like he says he can eventually train another director to take over the Avatar universe for him.

Same, but than you realize there’s only one Cameron. Sadly, Auteurism is dying for the big budget genre replaced by studio driven bile. The director is irrelevant.