Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Mojoguy]

36 minutes ago, XXR Krampus Claus said:

ATWOW Final Estimates (As of December 25, 2022)

 

Domestic = $550M

OS-C-R = $1250M

China = $160M

Total = $1960M

 

 

If it gets THAT close, Disney will definitely push for $2B WW.

[danziger]

Fantastic WOM, easy profit - barring external events like wars and pandemics, the only way we don't get Avatar 4 & 5 now is if JC reverses course (& all indications are he's very excited to do them). TWOW's mission is accomplished. Everything beyond that is just more cherries on top. Naysayers will try to hold on desperately to the "$2 billion to break even" lie, but if that's their standard they've already lost. 6+ more years of heavy heavy Avatar news for them (of course they could just stop caring like they've insisted for 13 years that everyone else has - but has zero impact on us or Avatar either way).

[SpiderByte]

56 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

The decline actually seems pretty normal. You realize people are kinda busy this weekend, right?

But that suggest Avatar might be.... frontloaded. They don't take kindly to that talk around these parts

[JustLurking]

59 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

The decline actually seems pretty normal. You realize people are kinda busy this weekend, right?

The film holding fine in spite of the storm doesn't cancel out its existence.

[cdsacken]

38 minutes ago, danziger said:

Fantastic WOM, easy profit - barring external events like wars and pandemics, the only way we don't get Avatar 4 & 5 now is if JC reverses course (& all indications are he's very excited to do them). TWOW's mission is accomplished. Everything beyond that is just more cherries on top. Naysayers will try to hold on desperately to the "$2 billion to break even" lie, but if that's their standard they've already lost. 6+ more years of heavy heavy Avatar news for them (of course they could just stop caring like they've insisted for 13 years that everyone else has - but has zero impact on us or Avatar either way).

2 billion to break even is ridiculous. At 1.5B it makes money. At 2B it makes quite a good chunk. Long as 3 does well it’s very likely we get all 4 more.

[Alexdube]

53 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

But that suggest Avatar might be.... frontloaded. They don't take kindly to that talk around these parts

As I pointed out in the OS thread

 

Certainly frontloaded in SK!!

 

South Korea Saturday (17 Dec): $7,908,297
South Korea Saturday (24 Dec): $7,907,026

[stuart360]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

But that suggest Avatar might be.... frontloaded. They don't take kindly to that talk around these parts

Nah go check the daily numbers on Mojo. A2 has been right at the top for gains, and lows for drops every day last week. In fact Thursday, the day the storms hit hard, every film in the Top 20 dropped except A2, which had a slight gain.

 

Thats the opposite of frontloaded.

[danziger]

41 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

2 billion to break even is ridiculous. At 1.5B it makes money. At 2B it makes quite a good chunk. Long as 3 does well it’s very likely we get all 4 more.

 

TWOW will end up so incredibly successful I see no way (barring aforementioned external events) Disney waits that long, they'll want Cameron back filming 4 asap, and probably 5 simultaneously to save money just as with 2 & 3. Just a question imo of whether Cameron wants to make that commitment at his age. 

[cdsacken]

5 minutes ago, danziger said:

 

TWOW will end up so incredibly successful I see no way (barring aforementioned external events) Disney waits that long, they'll want Cameron back filming 4 asap, and probably 5 simultaneously to save money just as with 2 & 3. Just a question imo of whether Cameron wants to make that commitment at his age. 

likely true and I hope so. I don’t think it hits 2B closer to 1.7B but we shall see. Going on Tuesday with the fam to see it

[Sheldon Cr]

2 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

If it gets THAT close, Disney will definitely push for $2B WW.

Oh its going over 2bww.

And they may likely re-release it again in better time. Since cov strict ruls obviously  hurt A2 in china. I also suspect A2 will pickup and go past 600m domestic as folks who wanted to avoid crowds and weather creep back for viewings. I got family for example that bought their tickets for Jan 😂 

[Sheldon Cr]

2 hours ago, danziger said:

 

TWOW will end up so incredibly successful I see no way (barring aforementioned external events) Disney waits that long, they'll want Cameron back filming 4 asap, and probably 5 simultaneously to save money just as with 2 & 3. Just a question imo of whether Cameron wants to make that commitment at his age. 

Yeehaw you know thats right Brother Dan.

 

We are a near lock for 2.1 b ww my brother. Watch Disney do those little ad pushes with Oscar buzz and all that.

 

 

Avatar 3 and 4 definitely good to go now as long as no crazy disasters of course. And we now shatter Avatar 2 won't beat the 400-450m and 500m domestic range nonsense. Now let's see if our fanbase with less storms and things looking better we don't see big rebounds domestically.

650-700m..Let's get it done!!

 

" Sully family domestic and OS are our fortress!"

 

We still have good shots at 600-700m+. No one can count out late walkins and Cameron late bloomers who come when things settle down.😉

Titanic and Avatar 1 both had a ton of late suprises.

Folks keep forgetting storms are holding the domestic bac danzgier.

 

Next 2 weekends and those weekdays in between we'll see what happens..

" Everything Changed!"

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 25, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Editing post

[Sheldon Cr]

Ps the costs.including the ad campaigns are likely 450-550,with advertising so after 1.2-1.4b ww everyone is happy. Pure gravy.

 

Figure we will end up with

1.6-1.7b OS incl china or more on top of the domestic. So 2bww is a near lock. Could be 2.3-2 5bee or better if they re-release it in China when things get better.

 

Award buzz should drive more folks to come checkout what everyone is talking about so highly as well.

[interiorgatordecorator]

3 hours ago, Nero said:

What was it about?

 

from january 2010

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/SHOWBIZ/Movies/01/11/avatar.movie.blues/index.html

 

from december 2022

 

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2022/dec/15/post-avatar-depression-syndrome-why-do-fans-feel-blue-after-watching-james-camerons-film

[Sheldon Cr]

5 hours ago, stuart360 said:

Looks like 1.3bil is def in reach WW by the end of New year weekend XXR.

Heh heh. We are going to hit 2b ww Brother stewart.

Hoo-Rah!!

Keep fingers cross for tons of late legs. I would love to see this suprise domestically. I think the only film with buzz is the sci fi Megan. All studios ran away from A2 till Feb mostly.

[Sheldon Cr]

1 hour ago, Alexdube said:

As I pointed out in the OS thread

 

Certainly frontloaded in SK!!

 

South Korea Saturday (17 Dec): $7,908,297
South Korea Saturday (24 Dec): $7,907,026

In fact isn't it going to best Avatar1 in SK and France and India. Just wonderful news. I hope it gets to 70-90m or better in Austraila and other territories.

 

And I'm hearing it's picking up in germany and Brazil etc

 

Edited December 25, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Editing post

[danziger]

27 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Yeehaw you know thats right Brother Dan.

 

We are a near lock for 2.1 b ww my brother. Watch Disney do those little ad pushes with Oscar buzz and all that.

 

 

Avatar 3 and 4 definitely good to go now as long as no crazy disasters of course. And we now shatter Avatar 2 won't beat the 400-450m and 500m domestic range nonsense. Now let's see if our fanbase with less storms and things looking better we don't see big rebounds domestically.

650-700m..Let's get it done!!

 

" Sully family domestic and OS are our fortress!"

 

We still have good shots at 600-700m+. No one can count out late walkins and Cameron late bloomers who come when things settle down.😉

Titanic and Avatar 1 both had a ton of late suprises.

Folks keep forgetting storms are holding the domestic bac danzgier.

 

Next 2 weekends we'll see what happens..

 

 

 

 

I don't know enough to say if it will cross $2 billion or $600m domestic, but nice thing is we don't even have to worry about it, at min. it will come close enough that extraordinary success is already locked in and we have so many new Avatar fans on board now, so much more praise for the characters and investment in seeing what happens to them next, especially among younger audiences that will be carrying Avatar's torch forward. 

Edited December 25, 2022 by danziger

[Sheldon Cr]

1 hour ago, stuart360 said:

Nah go check the daily numbers on Mojo. A2 has been right at the top for gains, and lows for drops every day last week. In fact Thursday, the day the storms hit hard, every film in the Top 20 dropped except A2, which had a slight gain.

 

Thats the opposite of frontloaded.

Any news on Sundays numbers. I plan to see it in 4dx this weekend my brothers and sisters. 

[kayumanggi]

Really great numbers, especially overseas. Some markets saw increases, while others saw single-digit declines.

[Sheldon Cr]

4 minutes ago, danziger said:

 

I don't know enough to say if it will cross $2 billion or $600m domestic, but nice thing is we don't even have to worry about it, at min. it will come close enough that extraordinary success is already locked in and the great thing is we have so many new Avatar fans on board now, so much more praise for the characters and investment in seeing what happens to them next, especially among younger audiences that will be carrying Avatar's torch forward. 

Agreed but root for that crazy suprise domestically. 600+ m domestic....Let's Go!!

 

 

I feel they are coming..Many were waiting out storms and for better formats. I also can't see avatar 2 not being the film most families choose to see in the weeks to come. Heh.

We are  already a near lock for 550 or better. Need a few million more buys from our Titan and Avatar 1 Cameron crew. And surely we can manage that.

 

" Sully family bring.us the numbers" 

 

[Sheldon Cr]

42 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Really great numbers, especially overseas. Some markets saw increases, while others saw single-digit declines.

Our pandorian family domestic  and OS are going to bring.home the cheddar. We will get the spider ww.  TGM gets bested . Black Adam tripled, Dr Strange and JPD sequels soundly beaten. All coming up in Jan my brother..

 

 

 

We are sending them the Message my brothers , Kayom, Disney,  Stuart, Jimbo, NCsoft, Dan, Dignam, Hw64!

 

 

This is still Our Land!🦝👍